Electoral College - 4 months out...

Time for another look at the electoral map.  In short, I see it being more competitive race from when I last looked at this back in February.

With national polls now showing a tied race, this erases much of the advantage that Obama had a few months ago.  The Republican Party has solidified behind Romney and the poor jobs reports and economic jitters about Europe has led to a more pessimistic (and anti-incumbent) mood.  But, this race is won state by state (election day consists of  51 separate elections, there is no "national election" based on the national popular vote) therefore looking at state polling will give further direction to "accurately" predicting a winner.  OK, there is no true accuracy at this stage, but it is important to try and project which states will be in play 136 days hence.

For calculating the "safe" or "swing" states, I used a mixture of state polling data and a particular state's electoral history and political disposition.  This is a snapshot as of June 23 and events and how the fall campaign is waged may well rejigger the map to some extent.  However, it is most likely that the election will be won or lost depending on how the swing states shake out.

The below map shows the likely Obama states (201 EVs) in Blue and the likely Romney states (191 EVs) in Red.  The 11 likely swing states (146 EVs) where the election will be decided are Tan.

This is much like the 2008 electoral map except that both MO and IN are in the Romney column.  Unless there are major unforeseen changes those states are likely to go back to the Republican column. Lets take each of the swing states and give them a more detailed look...


North Carolina - 15 EVs: The Tarheel State which is historically Republican was captured by Obama by a whisker in 2008.  This was mainly driven by high African-American and college student turnout.Current head to head polling shows Romney with a small, but consistent lead.  Early prediction - Romney

Nevada - 6 EVs: This state is an interesting mix with both a sizable Hispanic and Mormon population.  Won easily by Obama in 2008, Nevada is a battleground once more. However, I think that the president's advantage among Hispanics will pull it out for him in the end. Early prediction - Obama

Iowa - 6 EVs: Recent polling shows this state as tied which is good news for Romney. Obama is well-organized here and this will be nip and tuck.  However, Iowa is very white and this is a group that has been deserting Obama in droves since 2008. Early prediction - Romney

Colorado - 9 EVs: This is an eclectic state with a conservative rural and military population combined with liberal meccas like Boulder.  A high Hispanic turnout should help Obama, but early polling shows a very close race.  I have to flip a coin on this one. Early Prediction - Obama

Florida - 29 EVs:  This is a must-win for Romney and lends some weight to selecting Sen. Rubio for VP. Florida historically leans Republican, but Obama will be very competitive here.  But I see Romney pulling it out in the end based on his strong lead among voters over age 50. Early Prediction - Romney

Virginia - 13 EVs:  The Old Dominion is getting more purple than it was thanks to an influx of wealthy, educated, and socially liberal whites in the DC suburbs, but much of it remains part of the old South.  Republicans won big here in 2010, but I think Obama prevails here for a second time due to a large and enthusiastic turnout in Fairfax County. This will be very closely contested.  Early prediction - Obama


Pennsylvania - 20 EVs: Described by strategist James Carville as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends with Alabama in the middle, PA is a state with a split personality.  Romney will win in the rural central part of the state and in coal country while Obama will rake in the urban areas.  The election will be won in suburbia but with a historic Democratic lean I will place PA (for now) as an Obama state. Early prediction - Obama

Ohio - 18 EVs:  Another must win for Romney; no Republican has won the presidency in recent history without the Buckeye state. Again this is a battle to be waged in suburban Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati with Romney winning big in rural areas and Obama holding the cities.  This will be close, but I give the edge to Romney at this point. Early prediction - Romney


Michigan - 16 EVs:  Obama seemed very strong here a month ago, but recent polling shows a closer race.  Romney has family ties here, but his opposition to the auto bailout has hurt him. MI has been trending Democratic in recent years and while close, I think Obama will squeak it out here.  Early prediction - Obama

Wisconsin - 10 EVs: This state was very close in 2000 and 2004, but was won easily by Obama in 2008.  The recent failure of the recall election against Gov. Walker and a strong Republican organization makes this very competitive this time around.  A possible Paul Ryan VP pick makes this even more interesting. Another coin flip...Early prediction - Romney


New Hampshire - 4 EVs:  In an election as potentially close as this one, the Granite State's four electoral voes may decide the winner. Historically Republican, but trending Democratic, this will be close.  Romney has spent a lot of time here, but polling shows that his move to the political right may hurt him in this libertarian state.  One more coin flip.  Early prediction - Obama

Now lets take a look at my initial prediction map - subject to change at a minute's notice!




Yes - 269 to 269, a tie!  In this case, it goes to the House of Representative in which each state receives one vote.  26 states carry the day and thus the presidency.  In this scenario, Romney would likely win as Republicans have the congressional majority in more state delegations than do the Democrats.  This would also precipitate a deep national discussion of the Electoral College itself and as many states will be close there may well be numerous recounts, lawsuits, etc -  in other words a potential mess.

I think that this will be a close race, much more similar to 2004/2000 than a 2008 or 1996 model.  But events will drive this race and it is possible that the map may change significantly in the coming weeks and months.  It will be anything, but boring.  Fasten your seat-belts!

Onwards!

The Prof

2012 Strategery - Part II

Let's turn our attention to the presumptive Republican nominee and analyze Mitt Romney's plans for the campaign

It's the Economy Stupid...

Romney needs to make this race a referendum on President Obama and specifically the nation's economic performance.  He is going to paint the Obama Administration as out of touch (the recent statement from the President that the private sector is "doing fine" was an unexpected gift) and unable to pull the nation out of the economic doldrums.  Romney will portray himself as a successful businessman who understands economics and the private sector.

It is a 50/50 nation again, opportunity to pick up Independents

Few expect Obama to fully draw together the coalition that elected him in 2008.  Romney's focus will be to Independents who swung to Obama in 2008, but who are disappointed with him. Early polling shows that Obama has lost a lot of the magic that appealed to these voters - voters who will be vital in big swing states.


Fight back when attacked

As President Obama has been attempting to define Romney as a robber-baron, Romney's campaign has focused on rapid response and counter-punching.  This is the opposite of the McCain campaign of 2008 which was timid and unable to effectively jab back.

Consolidate and energize conservatives

Conservatives are vital for Romney to lock up as much of the money and energy that his campaign needs will come from these voters and activists.  The good news for Mitt is that they seem to have swung behind him even after many of these activists did not like him during the primary race.

It is also important to note that the conservative movement really wants to deny the President a second term.  These somewhat apathetic voters of 2008 launched the Tea Party of 2010 and helped propel WI Governor Scott Walker to a sizable victory earlier this week.

Avoid contentious social issues

Watch for Romney to be quiet on hot-button social issues such as abortion, gay rights, etc.  he needs to attract educated suburban voters who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal.  Although some movement conservatives will be disappointed, they will likely not make a big fuss.  After all that is what the Democrats would want them to do (see my earlier entry on President Obama's strategy)

Of course events, often unforeseen will drive the 2012 campaign, A successful candidate needs to be flexible with his strategy.

Next we will revisit the Electoral College and swing states and make some early prognostications of what may be...

Onwards!

The Prof