Sunday, May 10, 2009

Mayor Menino set to cruise in Boston

The Boston Globe has a poll out this morning showing Mayor Menino in an extremely strong position to win a fifth term. I am not an expert on Boston politics by any stretch, but the Mayor's strength in these poll numbers (he is up 63-23 over Councilor Flaherty and 63-21 over Councilor Yoon)are the type that indicate an easy cruise to reelection for him this November. His support is widespread though all demographic groups.

Globe story and results from the NH Survey Center are below:

Usually there has to be some prevailing reason for voters to toss an incumbent out of office. According to this poll, Mayor Menino is not being blamed for the poor economic conditions and is seen as a generally effective mayor. The challengers also have the unenviable position of running against a Mayor with an extremely powerful organization and a large and loyal support base.

A couple of other things - with this being a local race and six months out to the election, most voters are not paying any attention to this race yet and won't until the fall. Additionally, this poll was conducted of 504 adults in Boston. They were not screened as voters (remember turnout in these elections is typically under 40 percent) so the numbers are somewhat "squishy" at this point, but my instincts tell me they are probably pretty accurate. I will blog more about polling and how to seperate the good (thuis accurate) ones in the near future.

The last time an incumbent mayor of Boston lost a race for reelection was James Michael Curley in 1949...unless some unknown scandal rocks this race, I see the 60 year record for Boston reelecting its mayors continuing.

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