Hi all,
In the midst of the summer doldrums, but wait...Massachusetts Primary Day 2018 is almost here!! There are some spirited races in the Bay State and I will give a quick rundown on them.
Given that the Primary is the day after Labor Day, turnout statewide will not be impressive. This bodes well for incumbents and those with name recognition. Media coverage during the summer is not what it is during the fall election campaign thus some of these open races are more difficult to call than others.
Massachusetts Governor
Republican
Governor Baker has a primary challenger in Scott Lively, a Springfield pastor who hails from the deeply socially conservative wing of the GOP. Lively surprised somewhat in the GOP convention where he garnered the support of 27% of the GOP delegates. Lively has tied himself very closely to both President Trump and a very conservative social agenda (much of it anti LGBT). There are a hard core of conservatives in Massachusetts who view Baker as a liberal/traitor to the cause as he is socially moderate, has publicly criticized the President, and works cooperatively with the Democratic state legislature.
However, Baker will win the primary very easily. Independents who cross into the GOP primary will support the more moderate Baker. His administration has presided over a booming state economy. Lively has little money for a real campaign and is seen as a radical gadfly by most political analysts. Baker is the most popular governor in the nation if the polling is to be believed and is flush with campaign funds. Baker will not win the hardcore "Trumpers" due to his heresy, but should take around 75% of the primary vote on September 4.
Democrats
With Setti Warren dropping out of the race this past spring there are two candidates; Jay Gonzalez who worked in the Patrick Administration and Bob Massie and entrepreneur and activist. The Democratic convention endorsed Gonzales, but Massie received enough support to be a credible candidate.
There has been no real polling on this very low profile race. My sense is that Gonzalez probably has the momentum, but that is based really on the party endorsement and his name recognition. Not really ready to call numbers on this one, but I will anyway - Gonzalez wins 60-40. However, either candidate has a very uphill battle to beat Charlie Baker in November.
Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth
There is a surprisingly heated Democratic primary between long-time incumbent William Galvin and Boston City Council member Josh Zakim. Zakin won the endorsement of the State Democratic Convention over Galvin 55% to 45%. This is a classic old blood versus new blood contest. Galvin is running as a trusted competent elections official. Zakim, who is much younger, and part of the the progressive Left has Galvin on the defensive for the first time in many years.
If there is high urban and youth turnout in the primary, it will be a late evening. However, with this being a low-profile race (except for political junkies), it is likely that Galvin turns out the old machine one more time and wins albeit with the biggest scare of his political life.
US Senate
Three Republicans; State Representative Geoff Diehl, Businessman John Kingston, and former Romney administration undersecretary Beth Lindstrom are vying to run against Democrat Elizabeth Warren in November. As name recognition among all candidate is fairly low, money and organization will be the key to victory. Thus my money is on Diehl. He was the co-chair of Trump's 2016 campaign in Massachusetts and is well wired in GOP circles. Additionally, as a sitting state rep he has more experience in running and winning electoral races than his two opponents. Lindstrom has been running a good deal of advertising and making multiple media appearances and may surprise but I think Diehl wins by a 5 to 10 point margin in this three way race. News flash - Warren will win reelection convincingly no matter who she faces, although I think Linstrom would keep it a bit closer than Diehl.
Third Congressional District
There are currently ten Democratic candidates running for the Merrimack Valley and northwest suburban seat of retiring representative Niki Tsongas. I have absolutely no idea who will win, even though The Prof resides in the district. Polling shows that over half of the voters are undecided or disinterested. Organization and GOTV are the keys of victory in any election - especially in a crowded primary such as this. I suppose whomever garners more than 20% of the vote will win. Very uncharacteristically I will take a pass on trying to call this one. I will predict that the winner of the primary will be the easy winner in November as the GOP is toxic at the national level in this district and indeed throughout Massachusetts.
Seventh Congressional District
This is a very racially and economically diverse district. Representing much of Boston, Cambridge, and Somerville, long term Democratic incumbent Representative Mike Capuano is facing the first real political contest since he won initially won election in 1998. Boston City Councillor Ayanna Pressley is running a strong challenge with a promise to be more confrontational with the Trump Administration which is exciting progressives. In terms of public policy there is very little ideological difference between the two. The issue that Pressley is running on is greater political activism and the appeal of having a minority representing the majority-minority Seventh District. Capuano, although a progressive, is a deal maker and works across the aisle.
The last two polls have Capuano holding a lead of between 9 and 13 points. However Pressley is winning the polling in minority areas of the district. As said before - turnout and organization will determine the winner of this contest. Based on his organization and name recognition (i.e the power of incumbency) Capuano should win this by greater than ten points. Minority turnout will be low given this is a primary and Capuano is campaigning hard as he is well aware of the demise of the number four House Democrat in New York a couple of months ago to a very progressive challenger.
Once the primary is concluded, we will look at the 2018 fall campaign with great interest. Onwards!
The Prof
