Mea Maxima Culpa! Election 2016 Post Mortem

Wow - I really blew this one!! There is safety in numbers as just about everybody else in the punditry world did as well. Suffice to say, there was a much greater antipathy to conventional politicians than almost anyone anticipated and 2017 will welcome in President Trump.

Reasons Trump won

• Kept a very simple message: the economy, immigration, and corruption. He stayed on message despite numerous misstatements and less than stellar debate performances.
• He attracted unusually large numbers of blue-collar whites in the rust-belt. This was the margin of victory as many counties in these states shifted to the GOP for the first time in 30 years.
• Trump's own failing in both business and his personal life did not have a major effect at the end of the day.
• Public opinion polling was incorrect almost across the board. Nationally, polling was about three points off and it was further off in much of the state polling.
• The "shy" Trump vote. It is possible that the "Bradley Effect" may have moved the race a point or so in close states as Trump voters either unwilling to participate in surveys or intentionally misleading pollsters due to social stigma. This can't be proven, but may be a part of this story.
• Lower voter turnout among blacks and young people as compared to 2012.
• Trump's base supporters were very loyal - and they voted in large numbers.

Reasons Clinton lost

• The email scandal - Clinton simply was not seen as honest or trustworthy. The FBI Director's letter 11 days prior to the election reminded people of this. The Clinton Foundation's perceived ethical issues and both Bill and Hillary Clinton's cumulative (alleged) scandals since the 1990's were brought into focus by this as well.
• She did not pay enough attention to jobs and the economy - people are hurting in many parts of the nation and they did not perceive her addressing their concerns. When she said that things in the nation are well they vehemently disagreed.
• The Clinton campaign thought the "blue wall" was solid. Despite some worrying reports from the field they reacted too late in Michigan and were absolutely shocked to lose Wisconsin.
• The challenge in the primaries from Bernie Sanders made her shift positions and appear to have no core beliefs.
• Constant distraction by the Wikileaks dumps.
• Arrogance - pure and simple. The Clinton campaign thought this election was already sealed and they appeared to let up on the campaign toward the end. Relying on surrogates and celebrities probably won them few additional votes. In effect, they rode a victory lap on a flat tire.

Now to look at my own predictions from last week... (warning disturbingly incorrect predictions ahead!)

Clinton is going to win due to the following factors.

• A unified Democratic Party (Bernie supporters have come home) and a far less unified Republican Party with multiple prominent Republicans either publicly supporting her candidacy or not endorsing Trump. Clinton is likely to garner the support of 90% or more of Democrats. If Trump manages only 85% of Republican voters it will give her enough of an edge in the swing states to win the majority of them.

According to the exit polls Trump actually drew 90% of GOP voters while Clinton drew 89% of Democrats. This was certainly enough to help sway close states such as PA, FL, and NC. 

• Independents who usually lean to the GOP appear to be breaking slightly to Clinton. More bad news for Trump.

Independents broke for Trump 48-42.

• Superior Clinton ground game in all respects. This is important in driving key supporters to the polls in both early voting and on election day. Data on early voting suggests that it is on par with 2012 which produced Obama victories in almost all of the swing states. by contrast, Trump has publicly shown his disdain of data and organization. This will cost him dearly.

Another miss here. Clinton's data driven approach failed to turn out key segments of her coalition (African-Americans) in sufficient numbers contributing to the losses in NC, PA, MI, and WI. Trump's "gut-feel" approach succeeded in driving far larger number of blue collar whites to him in the rust belt. Clinton ignored this group at her peril and it cost her dearly.

• Clinton's policy positions (overall) are more in-line with the majority of voters. This varies of course with Trump's positions on the economy and jobs being preferred by a large number of voters - but the urban, college-educated, female, and minority coalition that form the backbone of the Clinton candidacy will outweigh that of the Trump coalition of white, male, religious, and less educated voters.

This was not inherently incorrect, but many voters were not voting on issues or by party per se...

• Expanding on the aforementioned point, Trump is getting hammered with female voters by over 20 points who have both a chance to make history and reject Trump's perceived chauvinism. Trump leads among men, but by a far smaller margin than Romney did four years ago.

Clinton indeed did win female voters, but "only" by 14 points. Normally this would be a significant win, but Trump won men by 14 points as well so the gender gap was basically a wash. Delving a little deeper into this, Trump won white women 53-43 and white men by a massive 63-31 margin. Clinton won white college educated women by only 5 points. College educated whites voted for Trump 49-45 which was not in line with the pre-election forecast.

• The economy, while not booming, is perceived as being good enough to keep the Democrats in power. There are large pockets where the economy is doing poorly mainly in large segments of the Midwest (Ohio, Michigan) and this benefits Trump. But it is not going to be enough to win enough electoral votes in the end.

Wrong again Prof Brad - the perceived poor economy in Middle America was the major reason Clinton lost in much of the rust-belt.

• In an ordinary election year the base factors would tilt slightly to a GOP win after eight years of a Democratic administration. But this year Trump has alienated and has made himself unqualified as act as President to a vast segment of the electorate and suffers from very high disapproval ratings. Hillary suffers high disapproval as well, but she is seen as being qualified for the job by more voters. This is very important as it gives wavering Republicans a place to go to if they cannot bring themselves to support Trump.

Despite Trump's disapproval of 60%, many voters overlooked this. The GOP largely came home. Clinton's disapproval numbers were not too far behind at 54%.

• As predicted, the third party candidacies of Johnson and Stein have faded and they will have little overall effect on the election.

Both Johnson and Stein underperformed. They may have swung a state or two given their vote in some of the close states, but there is no data to support that as of yet.

• There is going to be a very powerful anti-Trump wave in the Hispanic community. It will put tossup states like Nevada and Florida in Clinton's corner, will keep states that lean Democratic like Colorado in Clinton's column and  and will diminish Trump victories in Arizona and Texas. This is a major and existential problem for the GOP going forward. If Hispanics solidify 80% or more support for the Democrats, the Republicans will be hard pressed to win another presidential election in the foreseeable future.

I still think that Hispanic voters are an existential problem for Republicans. This is demonstrated by the less than landslide Trump victories in AZ and TX. But if the exit polls are to be believed, Trump lost Hispanics 65-29 which is quite close to Hispanic breakdown margin in 2012.

• Finally, the Democratic "blue wall" of states that give them a comfortable base in the Electoral College appears to be largely holding. This gives them a base of over 250 EVs which means that only one or two of the swing states needs to be won to ensure victory. The GOP literally needs to run the table to win.

And indeed he did pull the inside straight! The blue wall was not only breached, but broken. PA, MI, OH, and WI all flipped from Blue to Red. PA and MI have not voted GOP since 1988. Wisconsin has not voted Republican since it supported Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Electoral College Final Results 2016

Popular Vote Breakdown
Clinton wins the popular vote by 5 points, but fails to break 50%.

Clinton      49
Trump       44
Johnston    5
Stein           1
Other          1

I was right on Clinton being popular vote winner (mainly through her landslide wins in blue CA and NY). These results may adjust a bit as the final popular vote tally will not be certified for a couple more weeks.

Clinton      47.8
Trump       46.7
Johnston    3.2
Stein           1.0
Other          1.0

Lets see how I did on the individual state calls...

Arizona - Typically a GOP stalwart, Hillary has made a play due to it's growing Hispanic population. AZ is trending more purple of late, but it is probably a bridge too far - this year. Prediction: Trump by 5

I was pretty good on AZ. It did get closer for Clinton, but not close enough. Actual: Trump by 4

Florida - This is a must-win for Trump as the 29 electoral votes are critical for any chance he may have. Both candidates have poured money and resources into the states. Results from the bellwether counties of Hillsborough and Polk in central Florida will give an early indication of who will prevail. There is a large white rural demographic in northern Florida and the Panhandle that will run up the score for Trump. Clinton will clean up among the growing Puerto Rican community. Elderly voters will favor Trump, but the margins may not be enough. My sense is that this may look a lot like 2012 where Obama squeaked out a 0.9% victory. This is a knife's edge and will be decided who has the better ground operation. Thus I am calling it for Clinton. Prediction: Clinton by 2

Florida behaved like the swing state it is with the usual regions supporting the GOP or the Democrats. However, Trump overperformed in some swing regions and it was enough to swing it to him. Actual: Trump by 1.3


Georgia - Like Arizona, Georgia is trending more purple as the Atlanta metro area has a large population of college-educated whiles and there is a sizable African-American community that will swing strongly to Clinton. But also like Arizona, it is still a fundamentally Republican state with demographics that favor a Trump victory. Prediction: Trump by 5

Georgia stayed GOP as Trump ran in totals in the rural pars of the state. As expected, Clinton did well in metro Atlanta. Actual: Trump by 6

Iowa - This state voted twice for Bush by a close margin and was won by Obama twice by comfortable margins. However, the demographics favor Trump and he is leading in all of the late polling. Prediction: Trump by 4

Iowa defied expectations with Trump winning all but 5 counties. Actual: Trump by 9

Maine - Using the District plan for apportionment of Electoral Votes, Maine splits its EVs by the winner of each congressional district. The statewide winner receives 2 EVs  and then the winner in each of Main'es two districts receives one EV per district won. Clinton will win statewide in Maine easily based on a victory in relatively wealthy CD 2 in southern Maine. But Trump is striving for a slim victory in CD 1 in poor and rural northern Maine. Prediction: Clinton by 6 statewide (3 EVs); Trump by 2 in CD 2 (1 EV)

I got the split correct in Maine! Actual:Clinton by 3 statewide (3 EVs); Trump by 10 in CD 2 (1 EV)

Michigan - Michigan has become a state that both candidate are working in over the past two weeks. Clinton has ramped up operations in this usually-blue state as a struggling economy and large white and blue collar population are making possible a Trump pickup.  Unfortunately for Trump, Clinton will win a massive victory in minority Detroit and the educated white Detroit metro area which will outweigh his vote elsewhere. Prediction: Clinton by 4

Wow - Michigan did surprise.Clinton did indeed win the metro Detroit area, but the turnout was down just enough to be offset by Trumps running up the vote elsewhere and flipping many counties that Obama won in 2012. The white blue collar workforce in this struggling state made the difference. Actual: Trump by 0.3%.

Nebraska - Like Maine, Nebraska uses the District Plan to allocate EVs. Obama won the single urban congressional district around Omaha in 2008 to steal that electoral vote. Clinton is making a play for it, but I think Trump squeaks it out to carry all 5 of Nebraska's EVs. Prediction: Trump by 12 statewide; Trump by 2 in CD 2

Big Trump win in Nebraska including CD 2. Actual: Trump by 26 statewide; Trump by 3 in CD 3

Nevada - Won by Obama twice, this formerly red state is trending blue due to demographic changes. The Hispanic vote will secure a victory for Clinton as Nevada follows New Mexico away from the GOP due to a declining white population, Trump's stance on immigration certainly does not help here either. Prediction: Clinton by 4

The Democratic machine was able to deliver Nevada for Clinton, albeit by a close margin. Actual: Clinton by 2.5


New Hampshire - New Hampshire is always in play and Trump over-performed  in the February Primary. Sanders pummeled Clinton here as well in February...but my gut and the polling is indicating a modest Clinton win here. Prediction: Clinton by 4

NH was won by Clinton in a razor thin margin of 3,000 votes. Actual: Clinton by 0.3%

North Carolina - Another red state that is turned purple in recent years, the 15 EVs in North Carolina are being bitterly fought over. Like Florida, this is a close call and wont be decided until late in the evening or the next day. Clinton will barely squeak it out with high minority turnout and the winning northern Whites with college degrees who have relocated to this booming state. Prediction: Clinton by <1 span="">

North Carolina surprised and went to Trump despite all the attention by Clinton and the President in the last week of the campaign. Actual: Trump by 4

Ohio - Ohio is tailor made for Trump (blue collar, white, and smaller percentage of college grads) and usually is a must win for either party. Luckily for Clinton, she can afford to lose Ohio due to her strength elsewhere. Watch the vote totals late in the evening from Cleveland and Cincinnati to see if she can catch Trump who will build a large lead in the more rural and blue collar regions. My belief is that the cities won't be enough o put Clinton over the top. Prediction: Trump by 3

Trump dominated and flipped many hardcore Democratic counties in Appalachian Ohio. This was not that close in the end. Actual: Trump by 9

Wildcards - states that are not likely to swing, but one never knows:

Oh, was I wrong here!


Pennsylvania - Described by pundit James Carville as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends with Alabama in the middle" Pennsylvania has long been sought after by the GOP who have not won here since 1988. Romney made a big push here in 2012 and lost by 5 points. Philly and the suburbs will be a lonely blue island in an otherwise red sea, but the suburban female vote will be so overwhelmingly pro-Clinton that she should not be too worried here. Prediction: Clinton by 6

A surprise Trump win by racking up very large margins in rural PA, taking industrial Erie County and doing just well enough in suburban Philly. Clinton did better than Obama in the suburban counties, but did not do as well as Obama in central city Philadelphia. Actual: Trump by 1.2


Virginia - Yet another solid Republican state which has gone blue due to the booming and highly educated DC suburbs. If Clinton's running mate Tim Kaine was not a sitting Virginia senator it may have been marginally in play. Prediction: Clinton by 7

Clinton managed to hold onto VA due to a strong suburban DC vote overwhelming Trumps's vote downstate. She did slightly better than Obama in 2012, thus turning VA a bluer shade of purple. Actual: Clinton by 5

Texas - What?! Yes, this GOP anchor is slowly eroding as the Hispanic population continues to grow. Trump will win, but his margin will not be close to Romney's 16 point win in 2012. Prediction: Trump by 9

As predicted, Trump did not do as well as he should have in Texas - warning sign for the future... Actual: Trump by 9

Wisconsin - Narrowly won by Gore and Kerry, Obama won here easily despite local Congressman Paul Ryan being on the GOP ticket in 2012. However, Wisconsin is lily white and blue collar. Look for the cities of Madison and Milwaukee to propel Clinton to victory, but it will be closer than Obama's 7 point win in 2012. Prediction: Clinton by 4

One of the evening's biggest surprises, Wisconsin flipped for the first time since 1984. Depressed inner-city turnout  coupled with Trump winning a number of counties that had long been Democratic for that flipped 10 more electoral votes for the GOP. Actual: Trump by 2


Utah - Another shocker that Utah is even in play. The GOP typically racks up victories of 25% plus. Trump's unpopularity in the Mormon community and conservative local boy turned presidential candidate Evan McMullin are making this closer than expected. Closer between Trump and McMullin that is! Clinton runs a real risk of coming in third place in Utah. Prediction: Trump by 9 over McMullin with McMullin and Clinton in a near tie.

Trump ended up winning easily. Actual: Trump by 19 over Clinton with McMullin losing to Clinton by 9 points to take 3rd place.

Colorado - Closely divided between rural conservative and urban, educated, and liberal regions Colorado seems to be swing state. Yet again, a Hispanic wave is going to sink Trump's chances despite some poll tightening. Prediction: Clinton by 6

A bit closer than I expected... Actual: Clinton by 3

Missouri - This former swing state keeps drifting to the GOP. Clinton will keep it fairly close, but Trump should not have a major problem in holding here. Prediction: Trump by 7

Very easy Trump win here. MO is no longer a swing state. Actual: Trump by 19

The Prof's Home State of Massachusetts

I did well on the calls in Massachusetts at least!

Prediction and Actual


Clinton      65   61

Trump       29   34
Johnston    6    4
Stein           2    1

All incumbent Democratic Congressional Representatives cruise to 20 point plus victories. Only 4 out of the 9 districts have even token opposition.

Massachusetts Ballot Questions

#1 Casino/Racetrack

Yes 33   39
No  67   61

#2 Charter School Expansion

Yes 47   38
No  53   62

#3 Be Nice to Farm Animals

Yes 79   78
No  21   22

#4 Legalization of Marijuana for Recreational Use

Yes 52   54
No  48   46

Other Fun Predictions

Prediction and Actual

Top 5 Clinton States

Massachusetts +36  +27
New York +34  +19
Vermont +34  +29
Maryland +32  +25
California +29  +28

Top 5 Trump States

Oklahoma +26  +37
Alabama +24  +28
Wyoming +21  +48!
Arkansas +21  +27
West Virginia +19  +42

Gary Johnson breaks 10% in his home state on New Mexico and gets nearly 10% in Libertarian-friendly Colorado. Johnson received 9% in NM and 5% in CO.


Congress

The House remains Republican albeit with a reduced majority.

The GOP only lost 9 seats, much better than anticipated.

The Senate flips to the Democrats with pickups in IL, WI, PA, NH, and MO. This puts it at 50/50, but the new VP Tim Kaine will be the tiebreaker.

Wrong again - the GOP held the seats in WI, PA, and MO and will have a 52-48 majority. Can we say Unified Republican Government on 1-19-2017...

I will write up a postmortem of the changes that we can expect with a President Trump, a look at the future of both parties, and how to address the faulty public opinion polling.

Onwards to 2018 and 2020!

The Prof

2016 - Hillary to Win by a Comfortable Margin, but not a Landslide

Well, it's that time again for The Prof to encapsulate in stone (or cyber-ware) predictions for what we will see in the next 72 hours. Election 2016 is finally upon us. In fact it has been upon us for several weeks if one factors in the early voting in a number of states. As of November 5, just shy of 40 million early votes have been cast. This election will (hopefully) be concluded by the wee hours on Wednesday morning and I predict the nation will (sort of) welcome President-Elect Hillary Clinton.

Clinton is going to win due to the following factors.

• A unified Democratic Party (Bernie supporters have come home) and a far less unified Republican Party with multiple prominent Republicans either publicly supporting her candidacy or not endorsing Trump. Clinton is likely to garner the support of 90% or more of Democrats. If Trump manages only 85% of Republican voters it will give her enough of an edge in the swing states to win the majority of them.
• Independents who usually lean to the GOP appear to be breaking slightly to Clinton. More bad news for Trump.
• Superior Clinton ground game in all respects. This is important in driving key supporters to the polls in both early voting and on election day. Data on early voting suggests that it is on par with 2012 which produced Obama victories in almost all of the swing states. by contrast, Trump has publicly shown his disdain of data and organization. This will cost him dearly.
• Clinton's policy positions (overall) are more in-line with the majority of voters. This varies of course with Trump's positions on the economy and jobs being preferred by a large number of voters - but the urban, college-educated, female, and minority coalition that form the backbone of the Clinton candidacy will outweigh that of the Trump coalition of white, male, religious, and less educated voters.
• Expanding on the aforementioned point, Trump is getting hammered with female voters by over 20 points who have both a chance to make history and reject Trump's perceived chauvinism. Trump leads among men, but by a far smaller margin than Romney did four years ago.
• The economy, while not booming, is perceived as being good enough to keep the Democrats in power. There are large pockets where the economy is doing poorly mainly in large segments of the Midwest (Ohio, Michigan) and this benefits Trump. But it is not going to be enough to win enough electoral votes in the end.
• In an ordinary election year the base factors would tilt slightly to a GOP win after eight years of a Democratic administration. But this year Trump has alienated and has made himself unqualified as act as President to a vast segment of the electorate and suffers from very high disapproval ratings. Hillary suffers high disapproval as well, but she is seen as being qualified for the job by more voters. This is very important as it gives wavering Republicans a place to go to if they cannot bring themselves to support Trump.
• As predicted, the third party candidacies of Johnson and Stein have faded and they will have little overall effect on the election.
• There is going to be a very powerful anti-Trump wave in the Hispanic community. It will put tossup states like Nevada and Florida in Clinton's corner, will keep states that lean Democratic like Colorado in Clinton's column and  and will diminish Trump victories in Arizona and Texas. This is a major and existential problem for the GOP going forward. If Hispanics solidify 80% or more support for the Democrats, the Republicans will be hard pressed to win another presidential election in the foreseeable future.
• Finally, the Democratic "blue wall" of states that give them a comfortable base in the Electoral College appears to be largely holding. This gives them a base of over 250 EVs which means that only one or two of the swing states needs to be won to ensure victory. The GOP literally needs to run the table to win.

Electoral College - Base states for each party and swing states

(all maps courtesy of 270towin.com)

As you can see, the Democrats enjoy an advantage of 89 EVs looking at the states each party is nearly guaranteed to win. The likelihood of Trump winning Massachusetts or Clinton winning West Virginia are a faction above absolute zero. So lets look at the swing states and assign them based on polling, demographics, and historical voting patterns.

Arizona - Typically a GOP stalwart, Hillary has made a play due to it's growing Hispanic population. AZ is trending more purple of late, but it is probably a bridge too far - this year. Prediction: Trump by 5

Florida - This is a must-win for Trump as the 29 electoral votes are critical for any chance he may have. Both candidates have poured money and resources into the states. Results from the bellwether counties of Hillsborough and Polk in central Florida will give an early indication of who will prevail. There is a large white rural demographic in northern Florida and the Panhandle that will run up the score for Trump. Clinton will clean up among the growing Puerto Rican community. Elderly voters will favor Trump, but the margins may not be enough. My sense is that this may look a lot like 2012 where Obama squeaked out a 0.9% victory. This is a knife's edge and will be decided who has the better ground operation. Thus I am calling it for Clinton. Prediction: Clinton by 2

Georgia - Like Arizona, Georgia is trending more purple as the Atlanta metro area has a large population of college-educated whiles and there is a sizable African-American community that will swing strongly to Clinton. But also like Arizona, it is still a fundamentally Republican state with demographics that favor a Trump victory. Prediction: Trump by 5

Iowa - This state voted twice for Bush by a close margin and was won by Obama twice by comfortable margins. However, the demographics favor Trump and he is leading in all of the late polling. Prediction: Trump by 4

Maine - Using the District plan for apportionment of Electoral Votes, Maine splits its EVs by the winner of each congressional district. The statewide winner receives 2 EVs  and then the winner in each of Main'es two districts receives one EV per district won. Clinton will win statewide in Maine easily based on a victory in relatively wealthy CD 2 in southern Maine. But Trump is striving for a slim victory in CD 1 in poor and rural northern Maine. Prediction: Clinton by 6 statewide (3 EVs); Trump by 2 in CD 2 (1 EV)

Michigan - Michigan has become a state that both candidate are working in over the past two weeks. Clinton has ramped up operations in this usually-blue state as a struggling economy and large white and blue collar population are making possible a Trump pickup.  Unfortunately for Trump, Clinton will win a massive victory in minority Detroit and the educated white Detroit metro area which will outweigh his vote elsewhere. Prediction: Clinton by 4

Nebraska - Like Maine, Nebraska uses the District Plan to allocate EVs. Obama won the single urban congressional district around Omaha in 2008 to steal that electoral vote. Clinton is making a play for it, but I think Trump squeaks it out to carry all 5 of Nebraska's EVs. Prediction: Trump by 12 statewide; Trump by 2 in CD 3.

Nevada - Won by Obama twice, this formerly red state is trending blue due to demographic changes. The Hispanic vote will seure a victory for Clinton as Nevada follows New Mexico away from the GOP due to a declining white population, Trump's stance on immigration certainly does not help here either. Prediction: Clinton by 4

New Hampshire - New Hampshire is always in play and Trump over-performed  in the February Primary. Sanders pummeled Clinton here as well in February...but my gut and the polling is indicating a modest Clinton win here. Prediction: Clinton by 4

North Carolina - Another red state that is turned purple in recent years, the 15 EVs in North Carolina are being bitterly fought over. Like Florida, this is a close call and wont be decided until late in the evening or the next day. Clinton will barely squeak it out with high minority turnout and the winning northern Whites with college degrees who have relocated to this booming state. Prediction: Clinton by <1 font="">

Ohio - Ohio is tailor made for Trump (blue collar, white, and smaller percentage of college grads) and usually is a must win for either party. Luckily for Clinton, she can afford to lose Ohio due to her strength elsewhere. Watch the vote totals late in the evening from Cleveland and Cincinnati to see if she can catch Trump who will build a large lead in the more rural and blue collar regions. My belief is that the cities won't be enough o put Clinton over the top. Prediction: Trump by 3

Wildcards - states that are not likely to swing, but one never knows:

Pennsylvania - Described by pundit James Carville as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends with Alabama in the middle" Pennsylvania has long been sought after by the GOP who have not won here since 1988. Romney made a big push here in 2012 and lost by 5 points. Philly and the suburbs will be a lonely blue island in an otherwise red sea, but the suburban female vote will be so overwhelmingly pro-Clinton that she should not be too worried here. Prediction: Clinton by 6

Virginia - Yet another solid Republican state which has gone blue due to the booming and highly educated DC suburbs. If Clinton's running mate Tim Kaine was not a sitting Virginia senator it may have been marginally in play. Prediction: Clinton by 7

Texas - What?! Yes, this GOP anchor is slowly eroding as the Hispanic population continues to grow. Trump will win, but his margin will not be close to Romney's 16 point win in 2012. Prediction: Trump by 9

Wisconsin - Narrowly won by Gore and Kerry, Obama won here easily despite local Congressman Paul Ryan being on the GOP ticket in 2012. However, Wisconsin is lily white and blue collar. Look for the cities of Madison and Milwaukee to propel Clinton to victory, but it will be closer than Obama's 7 point win in 2012. Prediction: Clinton by 4

Utah - Another shocker that Utah is even in play. The GOP typically racks up victories of 25% plus. Trump's unpopularity in the Mormon community and conservative local boy turned presidential candidate Evan McMullin are making this closer than expected. Closer between Trump and McMullin that is! Clinton runs a real risk of coming in third place in Utah. Prediction: Trump by 9 over McMullin with McMullin and Clinton in a near tie.

Colorado - Closely divided between rural conservative and urban, educated, and liberal regions Colorado seems to be swing state. Yet again, a Hispanic wave is going to sink Trump's chances despite some poll tightening. Prediction: Clinton by 6

Missouri - This former swing state keeps drifting to the GOP. Clinton will keep it fairly close, but Trump should not have a major problem in holding here. Prediction: Trump by 7

Final Prediction Map for 2016

Popular Vote Breakdown
Clinton wins the popular vote by 5 points, but fails to break 50%.

Clinton      49
Trump       44
Johnston    5
Stein           1
Other          1

Does Trump have a path to Victory?

Trump can win if all of the following factors play out. This will be the equivalent of an inside straight, but it is not impossible though very unlikely.

• Clinton's GOTV operation does not match that of Obama's thus flipping the closest tossup states FL and NC.
• Depressed African-American turnout in the Rustbelt diminishing Clinton's vote in PA, MI, and OH.
• A hidden Trump vote (Bradley effect) adds a point or two for Trump in some swing states.
• Very high white blue collar turnout in the Rustbelt flipping states like MI and possibly PA.

A winning Trump map would likely look like this.

Again, I believe that this is unlikely, but not impossible.

The Prof's Home State of Massachusetts

Clinton      65

Trump       29
Johnston    6
Stein           2

All incumbent Democratic Congressional Representatives cruise to 20 point plus victories. Only 4 out of the 9 districts have even token opposition.

Massachusetts Ballot Questions

#1 Casino/Racetrack

Yes 33
No  67

#2 Charter School Expansion

Yes 47
No  53

#3 Be Nice to Farm Animals

Yes 79
No  21

#4 Legalization of Marijuana for Recreational Use

Yes 52
No  48

Other Fun Predictions

Top 5 Clinton States

Massachusetts +36
New York +34
Vermont +34
Maryland +32
California +29

Top 5 Trump States

Oklahoma +26
Alabama +24
Wyoming +21
Arkansas +21
West Virginia +19

Gary Johnson breaks 10% in his home state on New Mexico and gets nearly 10% in Libertarian-friendly Colorado.


Congress

The House remains Republican albeit with a reduced majority.

The Senate flips to the Democrats with pickups in IL, WI, PA, NH, and MO. This puts it at 50/50, but the new VP Tim Kaine will be the tiebreaker.


Aftermath

This will be addressed in my post election entry, but suffice to say that nearly 50% of the nation will be disappointed/angry should either candidate win. Maybe out long national nightmare is only beginning...

Onwards!

The Prof

Almost Over

Donald Trump has had the worst month in modern political campaigns in American politics.

Starting with his truly horrendous performance in the first debate, onward through the Venezuelan Miss Universe Twitter tirade, pivot to the airing of the 2005 "locker room" comments (likely with more to come), a marginally better, but still poor second debate, and wrapping up with prominent GOP officials including Speaker Ryan and Senator McCain effectively abandoning his campaign...other than that it was a great month for the Trump Train.

Trump loyalists continue to delude themselves that they can come back and win. They cite non-scientific internet polls, the size of his rallies, and an earnest belief that Hillary Clinton is truly the Devil (Trump's own words from the second debate) to back up their claim that theirs is a nationwide movement that the elites and Establishment cannot understand and this movement is waiting to sweep him into office. Unfortunately, there are a number of factors that make it clear to me that Hillary Clinton will indeed be elected the 45th president; likely by a large margin.

It is true that Clinton has very high unfavorable ratings. It is correct to say that she has a cloud of scandal around her (at least in the minds of many Americans) and that she is not seen as trustworthy. She certainly represents the status quo in terms of policy. In any "normal" election year the fundamentals would favor a generic Republican - but this year is far from normal.

I see the electoral map looking something like this the morning of November 8.

Map generated by 270towin.com

The above map is based upon the polling as of October 11, 2016. If anything, this map is being a bit generous to Trump. Georgia is certainly at risk along with Missouri and possibly even Alaska. I will update this in a couple of weeks as more data comes in.

Why is Clinton going to win?

In short:

• Although Clinton has high negatives, Trump's are even higher
• A United Democratic party (maybe a few Bernie Sanders voters will defect), a very obviously split and disunified GOP.
• On policy, Clinton is seen as better on social issues and defense. Trump is seen as better on the economy and jobs, but not by enough to win.
• The Democrats have a built in advantage from the beginning in the Electoral College with a blue wall in the Northeast and the West Coast. They can count on at least 230 EVs running a generic candidate and only have to win a couple of swing states to get to 270. there is a much steeper climb for the GOP. Couple this with several heretofore red states now being competitive...
• Changing demographics are favoring the Democrats.
• Clinton has a far superior ground game. This may be a low turnout election where GOTV efforts will really matter.
• Voter concerns about Trump's overall fitness for office, Clinton is seen by most voters as qualified - even if they dislike her.
• Minorities will turn out heavily against Trump swinging AZ and FL. The immigration rhetoric may end up solidifying the Hispanic vote almost as solidly as the African-American vote for the Democrats for at least a generation. 
• White college-educated voters, long a mainstay of the GOP will likely break to Clinton putting key states like CO, VA, and PA in Clinton's camp.
• There is an enormous gender gap in favor of Clinton. The Trump tapes will likely make it a chasm.
• Trump cannot go 12 (let alone 24) hours without some sort of gaffe that reinforces already poor perceptions of him.
• There is likely to be more damaging tapes/revelations about Trump's personal life. Clinton will experience more bad releases from Wikileaks, but by now candidate perceptions are already too "baked in" to move the needle very much.
• Trump's taxes: drip, drip, drip...
• Voters who are upset about the Clinton's and Bill Clinton's sexual past are already voting for Trump. Trump's line of attack on this is unlikely to work. He needs to get back moderate Republicans and college educated women. This is a desperate attempt to disqualify Clinton. He is best to focus his energy on issues where he already has a lead such as the economy.
• The nation's economy, although not humming is doing just well enough to favor the incumbent party. 
• No candidate with this large a lead in October (as of Oct. 11 between 5 and 10 points) has blown it - ever. (Jimmy Carter only had a lead of this size in 1980 in one outlier poll and Trump is no Ronald Reagan)
• Johnson and Stein, like most minor party candidates are unlikely to play spoiler in any state (unlike Perot and Nader) and seem to be drawing pretty evenly off both Trump and Clinton - thus a wash. 

Again, this is not a situation where Clinton is beloved - she is winning largely due to the GOP nominating a candidate with very poor qualities and she is able to leverage the aforementioned advantages that Democrats enjoy in a presidential race.

Trump's core voters will turn out, but not in sufficient numbers to win key states like PA, FL,AZ, NC, and VA. Ohio is a state ready-made for Trump in terms of demographics and it appears to be slipping out of reach as well. That's the ballgame.

I do see ME and NB splitting their electoral votes. the Omaha area and northern Maine are not representative of their states in general.

Electoral College Prediction
Clinton 358
Trump 180

National Vote Percentage
Clinton      49%
Trump       42%
Johnson     6%
Stein           3%

Onwards!

The Prof

September Update

What an August! Donald Trump experienced a near free fall in the polls, both nationally and in key swing states. Hillary Clinton appeared to be in cruise control as a result of Trump's unforced errors. However, Trumps slide seems to have stabilized and has reversed in the past month.

Trump has had a successive number of misfires since the close of the GOP Convention beginning with the poorly managed battle with the father of a Muslim US soldier who fell in battle in Iraq. This has been compounded by racial misfires and a seemingly uncoordinated policy on immigration. These along with yet another campaign shakeup, very little campaign ground game had his campaign in free fall.

Hover, things stabilized with a combination of more policy clarity on immigration (he has gone hardcore) and some unfortunate news on the Hillary Clinton email front has breathed a bit of life back into the Trump campaign. And to top it off, her recent health scare has been at the news forefront in recent days.

Polling has tightened in both national, and more importantly, in the swing states, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and North Carolina are all essentially tied. What looked like an easy victory for Clinton a month ago, now seems to be a down to the wire election. But I would be remiss to ignore several variables that are still in play:

• The three presidential debates - This is where the two candidates (Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein are not invited) will have the opportunity to square off one on one. Clinton is by far more versed on policy, Trump will benefit if he can appear competent as expectations for him are rock bottom. 
• Events over the next several weeks - a terrorist strike, poor economic news, a late scandal, the dreaded October surprise all can affect the course of this election.
• Gaffes by either candidate; with Trump verbal mishaps are somewhat expected, but Clinton needs to maintain discipline on messaging.

This is going to be a base election - the candidate that can drive out their base by using fear/dislike of the other candidate will likely win.

My next post will focus on the electoral college physics that will drive this contest.

Convention Time, Mistake on the Lake?

July is anything but the summer doldrums during presidential campaigns. A few words about the GOP convention this week and we will take a look at the Democratic Convention next week.

Donald Trump owns the Republican Party lock stock and barrel (except for those pesky Never Trumper's) until November and possibly beyond if he wins. However, his chances of winning cannot be considered very likely if current trends continue.

The Good

Trump was able to unify his party as much as he can and has defied the punditry by coming in as an outsider and effectively wresting control of the GOP from a long-entrenched establishment.

Governor Mike Pence will help bring on the Christian right who have been suspicious of Trump to from the beginning. Additionally, Pence has both executive and legislative experience and is a GOP insider.

Even with all of his gaffes, mistatements, and sometimes mind-blowing policy ideas Trump has stayed within striking range of Hillary Clinton in the polls which speaks to her inherent weakness and lack of trust. This also is a testimony to the GOP coming together after a very divisive primary.

The Bad

The convention can best be described as having an atmosphere of darkness, fear, and immanent destruction of the American dream if anybody but Trump takes the presidency come January 2017. Contrast this with Ronald Reagan's sunny and optimistic disposition and attitude from the 1980s. Some of the speakers painted such an apocalyptic vision of the nation should Hillary win that many swing voters will be turned off by the sheer pessimism that was on display.

Another issue was that the delegation in Cleveland had very few non-white faces. For a party that needs to improve its performance among minority groups this was not a good start if it wants to stay relevant at the presidential level.

The Ugly

Ted Cruz. His publically withholding his endorsement of Donald Trump is understandable on many levels, but he certainly should not have spoken at the convention in such a way as this will undermine party unity. Cruz is obviously betting that if Trump loses he will be the GOP 2020 front runner, but his lack of loyalty will probably serve to make him even more of a pariah within the party.

The one thing that is keeping Donald Trump within striking distance are the very poor favorability ratings of Hillary Clinton. Unfortunately for Trump, his own favorability ratings are even lower.

We will see next week what the Democratic Convention brings. Clinton's choice of Tim Kaine for vice president is certainly going to help her at the very least by making Virginia almost untouchable for the GOP in 2016.

Onwards!

The Prof

Trump vs Hillary - It's On!

Yeah yeah, far too long without a post and all sorts of excitement.

Bottom line  - Donald Trump is the nominee of a fractured Republican Party. Hillary Clinton will be the nominee of a contentious, but I believe eventually unified Democratic Party.

How did Trump do it?

Against all odds and most predictions, Trump is a political brand unto himself. He has successfully channeled voter anger at the GOP establishment, the Obama administration, immigrants, and Wall Street. Trump was also able to sell his brash, unconventional style and his constant tweaking of the media and GOP establishment - which play well with economically disenfranchised voters.

The way delegates are apportioned with a split field. Trump was able to turn consistent 30% vote totals into state wins and build momentum and the perception that he was unstoppable. The GOP was unable to unite behind an "anti Trump" as all of different factions were unable to come together.

A word on Marco Rubio: on paper he had the qualifications (young, Hispanic, from a swing state), but came across as stiff and woefully unprepared for the mud that was the GOP primary, His getting into the dirt as well (comments on Trump's hand size) sealed his fate. This shows that candidates have to perform and can't just have qualifications that have yet to be tested.

However, many in the GOP are not warming to a Trump candidacy. The repudiation of his nomination from figures such as Mitt Romney, both former President Bush's, and Speaker Paul Ryan. There is considerable concern that Trump will not only lose the presidency, but this will translate into massive GOP losses in the Senate and House.

Movement Conservatives who backed Cruz are concerned with Trumps liberal stances on some social issues. hose in the neo-conservative wing are concerned with his isolationism. And many are concerned with his brash and oftentimes incorrect statements that only serves as a goldmine for Democratic campaign ads. The GOP is clearly divided at this point and bringing the factions together with the hardline Trump supporters is going to be very difficult indeed.

How did Hillary do it?

Clinton was able to use the power of the Democratic establishment and the loyalty of the Superdelegates to cross the nomination threshold (likely to happen before the end of May). However, Senator Sanders has galvanized the youth and left wing of the party and has managed to throw a scare into both Hillary and the party establishment. But, unlike the GOP, it seems that the Democrats are more likely to coalesce by the party convention, as many in Sander's camp are pragmatic enough to support Hillary to prevent a Trump presidency.

And onto November...

As of today (May 9, 2016) Hillary is the presumptive favorite to win perhaps a landslide victory in November. This is based upon early polling and individual state voting histories. Additionally demographic shifts will favor the Democrats.

However:

• Both Trump and Hillary have very high "very unfavorable" ratings (45% and 55%) respectively. These candidates are already known and defined, thus changing these perceptions is unlikely. The result is two candidates viewed negatively by a majority of the electorate. This increases the possibility of a relatively low turnout election. Low turnout will help Trump as groups who are less likely to vote appear to be supporting Clinton.

• VP picks - will have to do a Veepstakes post soon - the VP pick will not greatly help each candidate, but a poor pick can further depress already poor approval ratings.

• The economy over the next  months, an economic downturn helps Trump. Clinton as the defacto incumbent benefits from a recovering economy.

• Expect a negative campaign from both sides - this will further depress turnout and gin up partisans of each candidate.

• Does Hillary get indited based on the email issue? I do not this she does, but on the off chance it happens this will have grave effects on her future Is Joe Biden waiting to parachute in?

In a future post I will take a closer look at the Electoral College map.

Onwards!

The Prof