I will open with my prediction map. I usually save this for later in my analysis, but as good a headline as any. Several of these states (Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Florida) are on a knifes edge and could easily change. I feel somewhat better about the others..
National Vote Total: Biden 53 Trump 45 Others: 2
Well...here we are! It is November 1, 2020 and on the cusp of perhaps the most contentious and divided election since the Civil War. This is not hyperbole - the nation is clearly and bitterly divided along class, race, education, "coastal elites" vs. "fly over country", urban vs rural, gun control vs. 2nd amendment, and a host of other divides. However, this election is truly an up or down vote on President Trump's tenure in his first four years of office. All of these variables make it more difficult than in years past to be confident in the final results.
In addition to the systemic divide, the Covid pandemic is the HUGE issue and creates another variable whose impact is difficult to ascertain. This being said, lets see where things stand on Election Eve of 2020:
- There has been an unprecedented number of voters voting both early and by mail, most accounts have this at close to 100 million who have voted prior to November 3. Looking at registered early voter turnout, the Democrats seems to have the advantage although the early GOP turnout has been increasing over the past several days.
- There are also an unprecedented amount of mail in ballots. Depending upon the state they may or may not be counted if they are received after Nov. 3 (received after Nov. 3 must be postmarked by that date in order to count in those states).The nature of the rules around how these ballots need to be returned increase the likelihood of a not insubstantial number being "spoiled" for various reasons. Expect these to matter a lot in states where the vote is close.
- There is a real threat of protests and possible violence. The pandemic and frankly anger and "grievance politics" that seems to have swept the nation of late is going to lead to a lot of folks to be very unhappy with the outcome. This is a wildcard especially if there are disturbances that mar voting on Tuesday.
- Lawyer up! President Trump has made it quite clear that he is very likely to challenge results if they go against him. These challenges are going to center around those tens of millions of mail in ballots and the actual day of Nov. 3 turnout which is likely to benefit the GOP. Be prepared not to have any definitive winner for several days or perhaps several weeks. But best not to borrow trouble...for now.
- There are very few undecided voters left for either campaign to pick up. Both campaigns are focused on base turnout. Turnout may run into record territory surpassing 65% nationwide.
Keys to Biden's likely victory:
- Biden will benefit greatly from high turnout among base Democratic constituencies and has erased the historic GOP edge lead among college educated suburbanites. Biden will also win by higher minority turnout as these groups are highly motivated unlike in 2016.
- Biden will win women voters by a very large margin. The gender gap will be one of the major stories of 2020 - and the opportunity to have the first female vice president.
- Biden has a large $ edge and has been able to contest states such as TX and GA which the GOP usually does not need to defend. This year it does - drawing resources from other states.
- Trump's...how do put this kindly...well volatile and bizarre antics do not help him win. They work with his base, but turn off many voters who may otherwise have considered him.
- Covid Covid Covid! 'Nuff said.
- The economy, a major issue that has buoyed Trump, simply is not seen as being enough of a factor to justify reelection.
- Biden has successfully tamed (for now) the more radical elements of the Democratic party and his moderate and calm approach is working despite Trump's claims that he is a closet radical leftist. The voters simply aren't buying it.
- Unlike 2016 where the combined Libertarian and Green vote surpassed 4%, this wildcard is largely absent. Many Libertarian votes in 2016 were from GOP "never Trumpers" and Biden will benefit from this. Additionally many Green voters will grudgingly vote for Biden as they hurt Clinton in key states in 2016.
How can Trump pull another miracle:
- The polls are simply wrong and are missing a massive Trump vote. Shy Trump voters come out in droves. This is unlikely as 2016 national polling was very good, but state polls had methodological problems. Polling forms claim to have fixed them. Remember, a switch of 70,000 votes in 2016 would have resulted in Clinton winning PA, MI and WI... and the presidency! 2016 was very close and Trump pulled it off. 2020 is not as close, so this would be a far more unlikely need threading. Unlikely - but not impossible.
- Biden runs up the table nationally (there is a 99% Biden wins the popular vote), but Trump turns out the voters where it matters - the swing state in the upper Midwest. There is a massive red wave in rural areas and it is just enough to turn PA, FL, and WI red yet again and he holds his other fortresses.
- The economy helps him as Trump ends up being seen as a better economic manager. This brings just enough suburban voters back, voters that he desperately needs.
- Trump is successful in creating just enough doubt about Biden and "the radical left". This amps up his base and holds down Biden's gains among college educated suburbanites.
Key states to watch:
In the race to 270 EVs, Biden has many paths as I see it, Trump needs to pull an inside straight...yet again! Nationally, Biden has maintained a comfortable polling lead of between 6 and 10 points for several weeks. This stability bodes well for his chances. However it is the states that matter.
- Pennsylvania: Trump is focusing great effort to maximize base turnout, Biden has a moderate and steady lead in the polling, but so did Hillary Clinton in 2016. Expect this state to be very tight and not to be called for days as there will be many legal challenges over the vote. Trump needs to run the table again in rural PA and Biden needs to outperform in Philly and the suburbs. Biden's PA roots will help him over the hump. Prediction: Biden 51 Trump 47 Others 2.
- Florida: Do or die for the President. If he loses FL, he really has no path to victory. Looks down to the wire with perhaps a slight Biden lead. I think Biden pulls it out as the Hispanic (non Cuban) vote is expected to have much higher turnout than 2016. Prediction: Biden 49 Trump 48 Others 3.
- North Carolina: Another must win for Trump, but I think he falls just short. More white collar suburbanites migrating to NC will help Biden immensely here. Prediction: Biden 50 Trump 48 Others 2.
- Arizona: Historically Republican, but trending more Democratic in recent years, this is a true battleground now. A coin toss as polling has been all over the place. Prediction: Biden 49 Trump 48 Others 3.
- Georgia: This is a state that was not expected to be in play. GOP dominated since the 1980 the polling now shows a small Biden lead. However, I think Trump will BARELY nose it out as rural GA is ruby red.. Prediction: Trump 50 Biden 49 Others 1.
- Michigan: Trump's surprise win here in 2016 will not be repeated. The Democrats will jot be caught napping again and their turnout machine is in full gear. Prediction: Biden 54 Trump 45 Others 1.
- Wisconsin: Much like Michigan, I think the GOP will lose much of the suburban vote it was able to capture in 2016. College age turnout will be very high in Madison and will pull Biden over the finish line. Prediction: Biden 51 Trump 48 Others 1
- Ohio: Trump's surprise 10 point victory in 2016 shows how red OH has trended. It will be very close, but Trump repeats in 2020. Prediction: Trump 49 Biden 48 Others 1.
- Texas!!: Never thought I would see Texas this close. Demographics are changing this state into a battle ground. Huge turnout in urban areas are needed by Biden to win, but a bridge just a bit too far given how red the vast rural areas remain. Prediction: Trump 50 Biden 48 Others 2.
- Iowa: Always a swing state, this will be down to the wire as well. Late polling shows a small surge for Trump. Another coin toss, but my gut says Trump barely ekes it out again. Prediction: Trump 49.8 Biden 49.2 Others 2.
Potential Battlegrounds
- Minnesota: Trump is trying hard to pick off MN which he lost be 2 points in 2016. He loses by 4 this time. Prediction: Biden 52 Trump 48.
- Montana: The Democrats will make a run here, but Trump does not lose here unless there is a wave that I am not seeing. Prediction: Trump 53 Biden 47.
- Missouri: Closer than 2016, but Trump hangs on: Prediction: Trump 52 Biden 48.
- Virginia: Really not a swing state anymore with the DC suburbs now a deep blue. Prediction: Biden 54 Trump 46.
- Nevada: T'will be close again, but I see Biden hanging on. Prediction: Biden 53 Trump 47.
- Nebraska: Biden easily picks up the 1 EV from the area around Lincoln, Trump wins NB overall by about 7 points.
- Maine: The second district barely goes for Biden and he picks up this EV. Overall ME goes for Biden by at least 10 points.
Senate:
This is still fluid...I think Collins in ME is a goner. Graham in SC is in trouble as well. CO is another GOP loss. The GOP picks up the Jones seat in AL. The GA seat will go to a run-off in 6 weeks. Prediction: Democrats regain the Senate 52-48.
House:
Democrats pad their majority by 15-20 seats. Bottom line: Blue states get bluer.
A few fun maps and other sundries:
Nightmare scenario maps:
Biden Nightmare Scenario
Trump Nightmare Scenario
Massachusetts (my home state!): Biden wins by a historic margin 69-31. Markey beats O'Connell 66-34. Question 1 passes easily. Question 2 loses somewhat narrowly. GOP shrinks further in the state due to Biden coattails. In the State legislature: House the GOP loses seats and is now mired with less than 25 seats out of 160. In the State Senate it is even gloomier. The GOP may end up down 38-2.
Best Biden State: Massachusetts or California.
Best Trump state: Wyoming or Idaho
I believe that there may well be a loooong electoral and legal battle beyond November 3 as well - but lets save that morsel for later!
Onwards!
The Prof
