2020 Final Predictions

I will open with my prediction map. I usually save this for later in my analysis, but as good a headline as any. Several of these states (Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Florida) are on a knifes edge and could easily change. I feel somewhat better about the others.. 

National Vote Total: Biden 53   Trump 45  Others: 2

Well...here we are! It is November 1, 2020 and on the cusp of perhaps the most contentious and divided election since the Civil War. This is not hyperbole - the nation is clearly and bitterly divided along class, race, education, "coastal elites" vs. "fly over country", urban vs rural, gun control vs. 2nd amendment, and a host of other divides. However, this election is truly an up or down vote on President Trump's tenure in his first four years of office. All of these variables make it more difficult than in years past to be confident in the final results. 

In addition to the systemic divide, the Covid pandemic is the HUGE issue and creates another variable whose impact is difficult to ascertain. This being said, lets see where things stand on Election Eve of 2020:

• There has been an unprecedented number of voters voting both early and by mail, most accounts have this at close to 100 million who have voted prior to November 3. Looking at registered early voter turnout, the Democrats seems to have the advantage although the early GOP turnout has been increasing over the past several days.
• There are also an unprecedented amount of mail in ballots. Depending upon the state they may or may not be counted if they are received after Nov. 3 (received after Nov. 3 must be postmarked by that date in order to count in those states).The nature of the rules around how these ballots need to be returned increase the likelihood of a not insubstantial number being "spoiled" for various reasons. Expect these to matter a lot in states where the vote is close.
• There is a real threat of protests and possible violence. The pandemic and frankly anger and "grievance politics" that seems to have swept the nation of late is going to lead to a lot of folks to be very unhappy with the outcome. This is a wildcard especially if there are disturbances that mar voting on Tuesday.
• Lawyer up! President Trump has made it quite clear that he is very likely to challenge results if they go against him. These challenges are going to center around those tens of millions of mail in ballots and the actual day of Nov. 3 turnout which is likely to benefit the GOP. Be prepared not to have any definitive winner for several days or perhaps several weeks. But best not to borrow trouble...for now.
• There are very few undecided voters left for either campaign to pick up. Both campaigns are focused on base turnout. Turnout may run into record territory surpassing 65% nationwide.

Keys to Biden's likely victory:

• Biden will benefit greatly from high turnout among base Democratic constituencies and has erased the historic  GOP edge lead among college educated suburbanites. Biden will also win by higher minority turnout as these groups are highly motivated unlike in 2016.
• Biden will win women voters by a very large margin. The gender gap will be one of the major stories of 2020 - and the opportunity to have the first female vice president.
• Biden has a large $ edge and has been able to contest states such as TX and GA which the GOP usually does not need to defend. This year it does - drawing resources from other states.
• Trump's...how do put this kindly...well volatile and bizarre antics do not help him win. They work with his base, but turn off many voters who may otherwise have considered him.
• Covid Covid Covid! 'Nuff said.
• The economy, a major issue that has buoyed Trump, simply is not seen as being enough of a factor to justify reelection. 
• Biden has successfully tamed (for now) the more radical elements of the Democratic party and his moderate and calm approach is working despite Trump's claims that he is a closet radical leftist. The voters simply aren't buying it.
• Unlike 2016 where the combined Libertarian and Green vote surpassed 4%, this wildcard is largely absent. Many Libertarian votes in 2016 were from GOP "never Trumpers" and Biden will benefit from this. Additionally many Green voters will grudgingly vote for Biden as they hurt Clinton in key states in 2016.

How can Trump pull another miracle:

• The polls are simply wrong and are missing a massive Trump vote. Shy Trump voters come out in droves. This is unlikely as 2016 national polling was very good, but state polls had methodological problems. Polling forms claim to have fixed them. Remember, a switch of 70,000 votes in 2016 would have resulted in Clinton winning PA, MI and WI... and the presidency! 2016 was very close and Trump pulled it off. 2020 is not as close, so this would be a far more unlikely need threading. Unlikely - but not impossible.
• Biden runs up the table nationally (there is a 99% Biden wins the popular vote), but Trump turns out the voters where it matters - the swing state in the upper Midwest. There is a massive red wave in rural areas and it is just enough to turn PA, FL, and WI red yet again and he holds his other fortresses. 
• The economy helps him as Trump ends up being seen as a better economic manager. This brings just enough suburban voters back, voters that he desperately needs.
• Trump is successful in creating just enough doubt about Biden and "the radical left". This amps up his base and holds down Biden's gains among college educated suburbanites.

Key states to watch:

In the race to 270 EVs, Biden has many paths as I see it, Trump needs to pull an inside straight...yet again! Nationally, Biden has maintained a comfortable polling lead of between 6 and 10 points for several weeks. This stability bodes well for his chances. However it is the states that matter.

• Pennsylvania: Trump is focusing great effort to maximize base turnout, Biden has a moderate and steady lead in the polling, but so did Hillary Clinton in 2016. Expect this state to be very tight and not to be called for days as there will be many legal challenges over the vote. Trump needs to run the table again in rural PA and Biden needs to outperform in Philly and the suburbs. Biden's PA roots will help him over the hump. Prediction: Biden 51 Trump 47 Others 2.
• Florida: Do or die for the President. If he loses FL, he really has no path to victory. Looks down to the wire with perhaps a slight Biden lead. I think Biden pulls it out as the Hispanic (non Cuban) vote is expected to have much higher turnout than 2016. Prediction: Biden 49 Trump 48 Others 3.
• North Carolina: Another must win for Trump, but I think he falls just short. More white collar suburbanites migrating to NC will help Biden immensely here. Prediction: Biden 50 Trump 48 Others 2.
• Arizona: Historically Republican, but trending more Democratic in recent years, this is a true battleground now. A coin toss as polling has been all over the place. Prediction: Biden 49 Trump 48 Others 3.
• Georgia: This is a state that was not expected to be in play. GOP dominated since the 1980 the polling now shows a small Biden lead. However, I think Trump will BARELY nose it out as rural GA is ruby red.. Prediction: Trump 50 Biden 49 Others 1.
• Michigan: Trump's surprise win here in 2016 will not be repeated. The Democrats will jot be caught napping again and their turnout machine is in full gear. Prediction: Biden 54 Trump 45 Others 1.
• Wisconsin: Much like Michigan, I think the GOP will lose much of the suburban vote it was able to capture in 2016. College age turnout will be very high in Madison and will pull Biden over the finish line. Prediction: Biden 51 Trump 48 Others 1
• Ohio: Trump's surprise 10 point victory in 2016 shows how red OH has trended. It will be very close, but Trump repeats in 2020. Prediction: Trump 49 Biden 48 Others 1.
• Texas!!: Never thought I would see Texas this close. Demographics are changing this state into a battle ground. Huge turnout in urban areas are needed by Biden to win, but a bridge just a bit too far given how red the vast rural areas remain. Prediction: Trump 50 Biden 48 Others 2.
• Iowa: Always a swing state, this will be down to the wire as well. Late polling shows a small surge for Trump. Another coin toss, but my gut says Trump barely ekes it out again. Prediction: Trump 49.8 Biden 49.2 Others 2.

Potential Battlegrounds

• Minnesota: Trump is trying hard to pick off MN which he lost be 2 points in 2016. He loses by 4 this time. Prediction: Biden 52 Trump 48.
• Montana: The Democrats will make a run here, but Trump does not lose here unless there is a wave that I am not seeing. Prediction: Trump 53 Biden 47.
• Missouri: Closer than 2016, but Trump hangs on: Prediction: Trump 52 Biden 48.
• Virginia: Really not a swing state anymore with the DC suburbs now a deep blue. Prediction: Biden 54 Trump 46.
• Nevada: T'will be close again, but I see Biden hanging on. Prediction: Biden 53 Trump 47.
• Nebraska: Biden easily picks up the 1 EV from the area around Lincoln, Trump wins NB overall by about 7 points.
• Maine: The second district barely goes for Biden and he picks up this EV. Overall ME goes for Biden by at least 10 points.

Senate:

This is still fluid...I think Collins in ME is a goner. Graham in SC is in trouble as well. CO is another GOP loss. The GOP picks up the Jones seat in AL. The GA seat will go to a run-off in 6 weeks. Prediction: Democrats regain the Senate 52-48. 

House:

Democrats pad their majority by 15-20 seats. Bottom line: Blue states get bluer.

A few fun maps and other sundries:

Nightmare scenario maps:

Biden Nightmare Scenario

Trump Nightmare Scenario

Massachusetts (my home state!): Biden wins by a historic margin 69-31. Markey beats O'Connell 66-34. Question 1 passes easily. Question 2 loses somewhat narrowly. GOP shrinks further in the state due to Biden coattails. In the State legislature: House the GOP loses seats and is now mired with less than 25 seats out of 160. In the State Senate it is even gloomier. The GOP may end up down 38-2.

Best Biden State: Massachusetts or California.

Best Trump state: Wyoming or Idaho

I believe that there may well be a loooong electoral and legal battle beyond November 3 as well - but lets save that morsel for later!

Onwards!

The Prof

Electoral College 2020 - An Early Look

As we know, the winner of the American presidential election is determined by winning a majority in the Electoral College. Every state (except for Nebraska and Maine) allocate their Electors by a winner take all system, thus it does not matter if a candidate wins a given state by 20% or 0.1% - the winner receives the right to name all of the Electors (a party approved slate of supporters). Once a candidate reaches or surpasses a majority of the 538 total Electors currently 270 Electoral Votes (EVs) they will win the election.

ME and NB use what is known as the District Plan under which the statewide winner receives two Electors and the remaining Electors are selected by the popular vote winner within each Congressional District. This method has often been cited as a possible reform to the entire system as it would split the vote and give candidates the chance to win Electors they otherwise would not have a chance at (think Republicans winning a few Electors in CA and Democrats winning a few Electors out of Alabama). If this system was in place, Romney would have very narrowly beaten Obama in 2012 while losing the nationwide popular vote. But that is a discussion for future post...

Lets look at some maps  - best for us visual types!

All maps are courtesy of 270towin.com

Starting map with Solid and Tossup states

The below map has states colored as either solid or leaning for each candidate with toss-up states in grey. This is from polling conducted through late April 2020 and how states have historically voted over the past few cycles.

Note that there are only a few true toss-up states. Arizona, a GOP lock most years is now up for grabs. The same with North Carolina. Demographic changes in both states (Hispanics in AZ and wealthy middle class whites in NC) have made them more favorable for Democrats in the last decade. Virginia has continued its Democratic trend (the DC beltways is about as blue as any Northeastern urban area). However, former battlegrounds Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri have become more reliably Republican (due to working class and rural voters trending more Republican). Three states are key as they are most years - PA, MI, and FL. Trump carried all three by very narrow margins in 2016 and needs to win them again if he has any hope of reelection in 2020.

One other to watch is Texas. Deep red since 1980, it is trending more purple and Trump won it by a comparatively close 9 points in 2016. If Texas goes blue, game over.


Biden: Landslide Scenario

The below is a best case scenario for Biden with Trump's support collapsing and a blue wave sweeping Biden into office.

Biden wins nationwide by 8% to 11% nationwide. Trump loses all leaning GOP states and even more reliably GOP bastions such as Texas by close margins. Democrats regain their advantage around the Great Lakes that Trump cracked in 2016. Florida and Georgia are are breached by Biden (Trump won GA by only 5% in 2016). Pennsylvania where Biden has roots flips easily. Losing Texas is obviously catastrophic for the GOP, but not implausible given high turnout among Hispanics and youth voters. I hesitated on Iowa and Ohio as they are tending red, but Obama did win those states twice so I kicked them to the blue team.

Bear in mind this map is based on an overwhelming Democratic wave. For something of this scale to occur there would need to be an economy in Depression and for the Trump to be on the receiving end of public ire. It also assumes white suburbanites and women vote for Biden - or against Trump in massive numbers. Add an energized African American and Hispanic turnout  to flip states like AZ, NC, GA and TX.

The GOP base vote does come out, but ongoing demographic shifts and a severe loss of white suburbanites doom Trump to winning only in those areas where his base is a true majority.


Trump - A Close Win Scenario

Based on conditions as of early May 2020, I do not foresee Trump winning in anything approaching a landslide. However, it is quite plausible that he wins reelection in a fairly close race.

In this case Trump wins a very close nationwide vote, probably in the 1% to 2% range. Note that I have kept Michigan blue. But Prof - polling in Michigan was off in 2016, why not in 2020? I am basing this call on Trump winning MI in 2016 by only 0.02% and his overall favorability in MI has declined considerably. However, current polling remains close in such battlegrounds as NC, WI, and FL and Trump wins these states by modest margins. The President ends not being widely blamed for the Recession in this scenario and his base (rural and working class) come out in unprecedented numbers. Minority turnout is about the same as 2016, allowing Trump to retain PA (albeit very closely) and AZ. An added bonus of this scenario is that the GOP does not have to spend resources to defend Texas.

You may ask why Trump doesn't perform better and match his 2016 win. I am basing my analysis on both nationwide and state polling and Trump favorability which has been mired in the mid 40s. Yes, it IS early and these assumptions may (and likely will) change as time and conditions progress, but almost everything needs to break Trump's way for him to serve another four years. And so onto how I would call this as of May 2, 2020...

The Prof's May 2020 Prediction

As of this writing I see 2020 being a roughly 4% to 7% Biden victory nationwide. Biden successfully flips FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, and AZ. Minority turnout is critical for Biden to flip these states. Biden betters Clinton's performance among white suburbanites which makes VA and importantly PA early calls for Biden. Massive turnout in liberal urban areas of Wisconsin (much like the recent WI judicial election ) return it to the Democratic fold. Biden also does surprisingly well in solidly red states such as SC due to an energized Black turnout.

Ironically a sizable slice of Republicans and Independent leaners who held their nose and voted for Trump in 2016 will flip to Biden as he is a relative moderate and promises a return to political normalcy. This is why the Democratic Party movers and shakers (rumor has it President Obama was among these) favored Biden over Sanders as Sanders' policies would be concerning enough for middle class moderates to vote for Trump again  - close-pins firmly on noses.

Trump holds on by a small margin in Ohio. GA and IA are very close, but Trump squeaks them out. But it simply is not enough as far as the math is concerned. Trump does not flip any states that Clinton won in 2016 as Biden performs better in all of the blue states from 2016. NH and Colorado are firmly out of reach and Biden is able to focus resources on the Great Lake states and Florida.

Texas ends up very close as well, forcing Trump to spend resources that would have been of better use elsewhere.

A note on third parties

In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein won 3.27% and 1.06% respectively. One can certainly argue that "wasted" votes for Stein cost Clinton MI and WI. It also can be argued that many Johnson voters were anti-Trump Republicans and may have cost Trump NH. Does the Libertarian candidate (probably former MI Congressmen Justin Amash) affect the race in either direction? Does a wealthy individual like Mark Cuban decide to pull a Ross Perot and siphon a significant number of votes? All this remains to be seen.

Typically third party candidates have little real effect on a presidential race, but in Nader in 2000 and Perot in 1992 absolutely had significant influence on the final results. Remember Nader won 97,000 votes in Florida - a state that was ultimately declared for George W. Bush by only 537 votes and delivered him the presidency.

In conclusion

All of my analysis is based on my best guess as of today, It does not necessarily reflect what I want to happen as my role here is to facilitate and not to advocate for any one side. See you very soon!

Onwards!

The Prof

2020 Presidential Election: Conditions in the Age of COVID

Election 2020, an election that was likely to be a "typical" presidential election year- at least typical in the age of Trump where many of the old rules have been rewritten. This election would feature a closely divided electorate facing the prospect of reelecting a president with relatively strong economic numbers coupled with no major military conflicts - normally enough to reelect any incumbent president,

However, President Donald Trump's personal actions, impeachment, and a habit of degrading individuals and groups opposed to him would make this election a tossup against a generic Democratic candidate. All seemed geared for a bruising match with former Vice President Joe Biden who had bested a crowded field of candidates by early March 2020. This election would be a referendum on Trumpism with the economy, impeachment, and progressive vs conservative policy solutions as the major issues.

Until COVID-19...

Until a virus that threatens the  health and lives of millions of Americans and people worldwide...

Until a national shutdown and Quarantine...

Until unprecedented societal disruption...

Until a deep economic recession or perhaps depression...

The current situation is going to be THE issue of 2020 - at least as of this writing. How both Trump and Biden - along with the actions of the nation's governors handle this will have a great bearing on the results of 2020. Let us examine the main players.

President Trump

Presidents either shine or wither in a crisis (compare FDR WW2 and JFK Cuban Missile Crisis, vs Hoover Great Depression and Carter Iranian Hostage Crisis). The jury remains out on Trump and may well be a hung jury as partisan differences are exceedingly sharp with Republicans praising his leadership and Democrats citing that he has not done enough and was too slow to act. These opinions are unlikely to change and reflect the deep chasm that exists in today's political climate.

More encouraging for Trump is that he and Congress have worked together to pass several pieces of relief legislation related to the Covid Crisis. In a rare show of bipartisanship these provisions were passed nearly unanimously. In addition he has resisted the more right wing segments of his party in terms of taking the crisis seriously.

Unfortunately for the president, it looks like he was persuaded by a combination of poor polling data and his medical team (shout out to Doctors Fauci and Birx) to shift course to one more aligned with the vast majority of public health official. In addition, a growing chorus on the political and religious Right is calling for a much quicker reopening of the economy and society than many in the public health community would suggest.

Given all of the drama throughout his presidency, Trump's reelection will stand or fall on the perceptions of how he has handled this crisis both in terms of the health ramifications and the economic dislocation. Trump did receive a bit of a polling bounce (known as the rally effect) but that has receded in recent days. Expect things to change rapidly as he has a knack for making contradictory statements and policy by the day,


Joe Biden

Biden, now the presumptive Democratic nominee has risen from an endangered campaign as recently as February. After very shaky performances in Iowa (which has probably lost its first in the nation status) and and New Hampshire, he smashed temporary front-runner Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, Nevada, and most Super Tuesday states. Super Tuesday forced the remaining candidates out of the race (all of whom endorsed Biden) and Biden was the last man standing in the "moderate" lane. Warren and Sanders continued to split the liberal vote for another round of primaries thus amplifying Biden's victories.

Biden benefited greatly from his strong support among Black voters, Rural voters, and voters over 50. The youth vote, touted by many experts as pivotal again failed to materialize in large enough numbers to make a difference. Biden is also seen by most Democrats as the best candidate to run against Trump. There still needs to be some fence mending with those on the party's left wing, but it is likely that he will lead a united party in November.

The major issue Biden faces right now is that he is having great difficulty in getting attention in this period of time. Trump is using the bully pulpit as a way to be on television seven days a week. In these times of Quarantine, Biden cannot hold any rallies and is forced to conduct interviews from his home and issue press statements.

There have been some calls for Biden to name his (female) VP sooner rather then later to create some buzz. There also have been calls to form a type of shadow cabinet to highlight policy differences with the president. The drawback of this is that every member of the cabinet will be scrutinized` and attacked by the GOP. That's politics.


Governors

State governors have received a lot of attention as federalism is alive and well. Governors Cuomo of New York and Newsom of California have emerged as both state and media leaders. There has been considerable tension between many governors and the Trump administration regarding federal response and coordination as well as the federal versus state role in how and when the nation "reopens". After Trump initially asserted that the president has the right to determine this the governors will be taking the lead (the proper constitutional way, see the 10th amendment) with suggested federal guidance regarding milestones should be achieved, As of this writing, there are three regional compacts (Northeast, West, and Midwest) between mostly Democratic governors on coordinating economic reopening.


What Now?

Over the next several weeks I will examine in depth the evolving political climate and run some early electoral college scenarios. There remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty ranging from how the  actual election will be conducted (in person voting vs mailing ballots) - to how damaging the pandemic will be - to the state of the economy and society by early autumn. Much is in flux and of course I reserve the right to revise my analysis as conditions change.

Stay Healthy and Onwards!

The Prof