A few thoughts on this month's primary...
7th District Results
Wow, Mea Maxima Culpa!
The 7th District race between Michael Capuano and Ayanna Pressley that I was convinced would be won by the veteran congressman turned the political world on its head with Pressley's 59-41 win in the September 4 primary. Conventional (and Professor Brad's) wisdom was to side with the well-financed and politically savvy incumbent...but the voters of the majority-minority 7th District has other ideas. Pressley campaigned and distinguished herself on her story and background as there were few policy differences between the two candidates. This resonated with the activist base and generated very high minority turnout. Capuano barely won in his native city of Somerville and was thrashed elsewhere.
Certainly old political norms are breaking down and a new political class appears to be rising, at least in regions with high minority populations. This is happening nationwide as well with female and minority candidates being nominated in Democratic primaries in far greater numbers than in past years. A record 43% of 2018 House Democratic nominees nationwide are women.
However, Secretary of State Galvin easily disposed of his younger and more liberal challenger so it remains to be seen if this will occur statewide.
3rd District Results
In this ten person primary, it came down to a recount between the top two candidates where Lori Trahan squeezed out a 143 vote margin over Dan Koh - out of 88,00 votes cast in the primary. Winning a primary with 21% of the vote in our "first past the post" system has some calling for reform such as ranked choice voting which would have voters indicate their second choice in such a crowded primary and allocate those votes form the bottom finishing candidates to those who finished in the top echelon until one candidate gets over 50% of the vote based upon the raw vote combined with the second choice votes. Maine already has a such a system and this happening in Massachusetts may result in a greater push for it here.
Democratic Governor
No surprise, Jay Gonzalez easily defeated Bob Massie. Organization and money mattered here. Notably about 20% of Democratic ballots statewide had blank votes on the governor's race - perhaps an indication of low enthusiasm for these candidates.
Republican Governor
As expected Incumbent Charlie Baker defeated his challenger, Scott Lively. What was unusual was that Lively with no money or organization won 35% of the vote against the most popular governor in the nation. This indicates that a significant number of conservative GOP voters cast a protest against Baker's political moderation and collaborative style. In fact new polling (to be covered in my next post) shows Baker has higher favorability among Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. This will help him in the general election, but I expect many Lively voters to blank the governor's race in November.
Republican Senate
State Representative Geoff Diehl easily beat his two opponents with over 50% of the vote. He had money, name recognition, and importantly experience running campaigns unlike his opponents.
Now that the primary is over the real fireworks begin!
Onwards!
The Prof
