Governor
Incumbent governor Charlie Baker is leading Jay Gonzalez by a more than comfortable 43 points in the last poll. Baker has consistently outperform his underfunded and largely unknown opponent. Gonzalez is suffering from a lack of institutional party support as well as Baker plays ball well with the Democratic legislature. Baker has successfully parleyed attempts to tie him the Donald Trump - in fact he may be the most anti-Trump Republican holding major office.
Gonzalez should win (albeit by modest margins) in Boston and the major urban areas and the liberal 5 College region in the Pioneer Valley, Expect Baker to rack up large victories in the suburbs - even the left leaning Route 2 corridor west of Boston. Across the 495 belt, South Shore, Essex and Worcester County Baker wins by landslide totals. He is not going to win by 43 points, but I expect and easy double digit win for the incumbent governor.
Prediction: Baker wins 62 - 38
US Senate
Many Baker voters will split their tickets and also cast a vote for incumbent senator Elizabeth Warren. GOP candidate Geoffe Dheil who has tied himself to the national GOP will suffer due to Trump's extreme unpopularity in Massachusetts.
Prediction: Warren wins 58-42
Other Races:
- Democrats win all other state constitutional offices easily, all by greater than 20 points.
- Democrats win all contested US House races easily, all by more than 20 points.
- Ballot questions 2 and 3 win in a landslide, Question 1 on nurse staffing ratios loses by 5 points.
- In national races, the Democrats capture the House by about 20 seats and the GOP holds the Senate and gains 1 seat.
Onwards!
The Prof
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