Monday, November 1, 2010

Final Fearless Predictions

The count is down to precious hours - so time for The Prof to issue his final airtight predictions on the races in Massachusetts and a few nationwide for good measure...I may be dead on or end up with an omelet on my face Wednesday morning.

These are my best educated guesses. I wanted to flip a coin on a couple of these, but went with my gut and instinct.

Statewide Offices

Governor - Patrick
Patrick 48
Baker 46
Cahill 5
Stein 1

Patrick takes this in a late night squeaker. However, I am not terribly confident in my prediction as Baker seems to have the more enthusiastic supporters, but I simply don't see the same enthusiasm that Scott Brown built up in January. Remember that Brown only won by a few points with everything breaking his way. Massachusetts is still as Jon Keller has said, the Bluest State.

That being said, I believe that Baker (if he loses) could have taken this race, but a mostly sub-par campaign and Cahill bleeding anti-Patrick votes mark this as an opportunity missed.

Turnout matters most as I have often said. Watch the early returns from bellweather communities. If they are close we will be in a for a late evening.

Attorney General - Coakley
Coakley 61
McKenna 39

McKenna surprised many by getting on the ballot as a write-in, but he doesn't get more than the core Republican vote. Martha wins a number of ticket-splitters.

Treasurer - Grossman
Grossman 51
Polito 49

This race really is a toss-up and I debated the coin toss here. I think Grossman pulls this out due to again this being such a blue state with Polito's license plate controversy of last week tipping the race his way. However, I would not be shocked whatsoever if Polito pulls this out with strong support from Central Mass.

Auditor - Mary Z. Connaughton
Mary Z. 53
Bump 47

One bright spot for Republicans is this real chance to win one statewide office. Mary Z. has campaigned as an competent accountant and long-timepol Suzanne Bump has had several stumbles, especially the one about her principal (or was it her primary) residence.

Secretary of State - Galvin
Galvin 63
Campbell 37

Yawn...The Prince of Darkness (Galvin's nickname when he was in the State Legislature) gets elected yet again...

Congressional Districts

Dems likely to sweep all races...

3rd District
McGovern 56
Lamb 44

Jim McGovern is well-liked and machine-backed. Though much more liberal than the district, he fends off a challenge from newcomer Marty Lamb.

4th District
Frank 54
Beilat 46

Although Frank will have a much-closer race than has has since elected in 1982, having strong support in Newton, Brookline, and Fall River should be enough. But watch Sean Bielat to have a career in font of him as he has run a very spirited campaign and has thrown a real scare into the long-time incumbent.

5th District (Prof's home district)
Tsongas 55
Golnick 45

This is a textbook case in a vulnerable, yet well-financed incumbent winning in part due to a challenger with just too little financing and organization.

6th District (Prof''s old home district)
Tierney 53
Hudack 47

Closest race for John Tierney since 1996. If Hudack had not had so many "issues" the scandal-linked Tierney would have been ripe for the pickin'...this really was missed GOP opportunity. Kerry Healy or Bruce Tarr would have won.

10th District
Keating 48
Perry 46
Independents 6

This open seat was leaning toward Perry until old, but significant scandals from the 1990s were brought to the forefront. Keating is a relatively weak challenger, but may back into this seat due to female votes bleeding from Perry due to the nature of the strip-search incidents in his past. However, Perry does have a shot at winning this if turnout on the Cape is high and low in the Democratic stronghold of Quincy.

Ballot Questions

All three ballot questions go down. Typically many voter's default position is to vote no on ballot questions unless strongly convinced otherwise.

#1 on repealing the sales tax on alcohol loses 58-42

#2 on repealing Chapter 40B dealing with low-income housing fails 57-43.

#3 on rolling the state sales tax from 6.25% to 3% loses 54-46. This has generated the most interest and advertising. If the supporters of this question had not over-reached and rolled it back to 5%, it would have passed easily.

State Legislature

In the Statehouse, Republicans make modest gains in the House (5-10 net seats) and break even in the Senate. In other words - still a tiny minority.

And Finally - some national races

The Republicans (needing 39 seats) take the House, handily winning between 55 and 60 seats. This is not quite a Tsunami, but a very large wave none-the-less.

In the Senate the Democrats hold on to their majority - barely. Republicans almost run the table...some of the closely watched ones.

NV - Angle beats Reid by more than expected. The Tea Party is the real deal, now let them govern and see if it doesn't splinter. Governing is a whole different game than campaigning.

PA - Toomey beats Sestack, but may require a recount.

WA - This could be another recount in the making , but Murray barely holds on against Rossi.

FL - Hello Senator Rubio - a rising star in the GOP. Meeks comes in 3d place. Crist made no friends though all this and is unwelcome at all cocktail parties after Tuesday...

WI - Johnson beats Finegold; sometimes being a maverick, just ain't enough when there is a wave...

CA - Boxer holds on in true blue CA against Fiorina. This is an example of a bad challenger losing to a bad incumbent...bonus call- CA Governor: Jerry "Moonbeam :)" Brown win election as well - wasn't he the around in the 1870's...

WV - Governor Manchin created enough space between him and the President to barely prevail against Raese.

KY - The Tea Party wins again with Paul handily beating Conway.

DE - Coons beats O'Donnell where the Tea Party should have been more pragmatic and ended up sacrificing a gimme pickup on the alter of ideological purity. Is she a I want to go into the infamous Monty Python Routine - which I can recite verbatim!

We will see how I do in a few short hours...


The Prof

1 comment:

Student said...

Looking good right now except for PA