Just a short post this evening - the latest Rasmussen survey of 750 likely voters (taken Oct. 16-17) shows the following:
Yes, I know that this is within the margin of error BUT...after seeing a slew of polls all showing Patrick with a 4-6 point leads, I believe that this is pretty close to where the actual electorate would vote, providing the election was held today. Baker can still turn this around (look for some Hail Mary's to shake up the race) over the next 12 day, but he needs to turn the momentum around. Note that only a few voters are still undecided, but the soft supporters for any candidate can still be turned.
Patrick looks to be on his way to a close reelection - provided he goes mistake free over the next several days and has a decent GOTV program. He has run a positive and professional campaign and this aided by Baker's not defining himself early (like last spring) and the Cahill/Baker squabble has enabled him to run as the happy reformer and stay out of the muck. His numbers are still poor in terms of overall approval, but Baker needs to give folks a reason to vote for him. Being the anti-Patrick is not going to be enough.
Baker is finally running some good contrast ads - we'll see if they are enough to keep Patrick from sealing the deal.
In his latest ads Patrick continues to instill doubts regarding Baker's stewardship of Harvard-Pilgrim. This may be effective as HMOs are not well regarded by the voting public and I am sure Patrick's campaign has data that backs this up.
A lot can happen and this is far from over - but I am upping the odds for Patrick from 60% to 65% likelihood for reelection.
Onwards (to Nov.2)!!