Sunday, January 17, 2010

Last set of polls on the Mass Senate Race

Quick update on polling - looks like Brown may hold a small lead with 2 days to go, but all of these polls are within the margin of error - this is a statistical tie folks! Below are the polls that have been released since Monday of last week. The trends are that Brown is leading nearly 2 to 1 among independents and seems to have the most energized voters.

Much of the issues that pollsters have is how to model the breakdown of the electorate, i.e. who actually turns out to vote. Some of the variation is partially due to different samples in term sof the partisan affiliation of who shows up. Right now though, the best we can do is to make educated guesses.

All the below surevys are of likely voters.

American Research Group
Brown 48
Coakley 45

Research 2000
Coakley 48
Brown 41

Coakley 47
Brown 45

Suffolk University
Brown 50
Coakley 46
Kennedy 3
Undecided 1

Statistical breakdown (Courtesy of Suffolk University)
Among men, Brown led Coakley 55% to 41% but trailed among women 50 % to 45%.

78 % of registered Democrats preferred Coakley, while 91% of registered Republicans and 65% of independents favored Brown.

Brown led in most areas of the state, except Suffolk County, where Coakley crushed Brown 69%to 31%.

Brown (57% favorable to 19% unfavorable) was viewed more positively than Coakley (49%favorable to 41% unfavorable).

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