Sunday, December 6, 2009

Final Predictions for MA Senate Primary

Just a short note here - if I nail these numbers exactly, I will kick myself for not playing Megabucks this week...

Final Predictions
Coakley 42%
Capuano 34%
Khazei 14%
Pagliuca 10%

And lets not forget the Republicans...they are having a primary too.

Brown 77%
Robinson 23%

Prediction of results from my October 18 post
Coakley 49%
Capuano 32%
Pagliuca 11%
Khazei 8%

I see Coakley winning by a comfortable margin - however, if turnout is low it will be a bit reduced since the most committed liberal voters may skew slightly toward Capuano. Her opponents have been trying to make her fumble, but she has maintained possession and is ready to put the game away.

Some in the Capuano camp have been pointing to internal campaign polls showing a tightening race. These races typically do tighten a bit prior to the election, but I think the Capuanao folks are touting this to try to gin up their supporters prior to election day. I would be very surprised if this race goes much past 9:00 PM without a winner being called.

Turnout will be very light. Special election primaries typically don't generate high turnout, especially when there are two weeks of Christmas shopping left.

Watch for the post mortem later this week. I will be working on it Tuesday evening as the results roll in!


The Prof

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