Monday, November 2, 2009

Election Day 2009 Predictions

Ok - lets go out on a limb and see if I can nail the races that are coming up for tomorrow...

Boston Mayor
Menino wins over Flaherty/Yoon by a decent margin. Boston just likes him and he does have the job for life. His opponents are hoping for a Frank Skeffington Last Hurrah moment, but not this time.

Menino: 61
Flaherty: 39

Virginia Governor
This should be a relatively easy Republican pickup.

McDonnel (R) 54
Deeds (D) 46

NJ Governor
A very bitter race with an unpopular incumbent in Corzine, but a rather inept campaign by his opponent, The Republicans should have won this one, but an independent candidate siphoning nominally Republican votes and Democratic money flowing to this race should win it for Corzine. The polls have shown a dead heat all along so this is a bit of a coin toss...

Corzine (D) 45
Christi (R) 43
Daggett (I) 12

NY, 23rd District
Perhaps the most drama of any race, this was shaping up as a three-way race with the NY Conservative Party nominating a - well a conservative candidate in Hoffman against a very liberal Republican candidate in Scozzafava, with Owens carrying the Democratic banner. As the Republican candidate is quite liberal on a number of issues, many national conservatives urged support for Hoffman creating an intra-Republican split. On Friday of last week Scozzafava withdrew from the race and endorsed the the Democrat Owens. My sense on this is that Hoffman who has been ahead in the polls still wins this though.

Hoffman (C) 44
Owens (D) 38
Scozzafava (R) 18

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