Electoral College Prediction - 45 Days Out

Back in June, I published a very early look and prediction of how the 2012 Electoral College results may shake out.  At that time looking at the safe states for each candidate and at the potential swing states, the result based upon early polls, a state's particular voting history, and coin flipping yielded a tied election of 269 to 269.

Now that we are 45 days out from the election the potential result is much clearer.  Both party conventions are behind us.  Polls are now modeled on "likely voters" which is far more accurate. The fall campaign is fully underway and some definitive changes are trends are now emerging.

Bear in mind this prediction is following a simply awful month for the Romney campaign.  Mistake and gaffe have been plaguing the campaign while the President Obama's campaign is running like a well-oiled machine.  In an earlier posting I speculated that if this election is  choice rather than a referendum that it bodes well for Obama.  The president's team has masterfully made this a choice despite continuing sub-par economic figures.  This coupled with Romney's ineptitude and tone-deafness has swung what was a toss-up election clearly in the President's favor.

Lets look at the landscape...

Based on the 270towin.com site the red and blue states indicate the "safe" states for each campaign with the swing states shown in beige.  Let's look at each swing state and see how things have changes from my June analysis.  My new analysis for each state is indicated in italics.


North Carolina - 15 EVs: The Tarheel State which is historically Republican was captured by Obama by a whisker in 2008.  This was mainly driven by high African-American and college student turnout. Current head to head polling shows Romney with a small, but consistent lead, but some recent polling shows it now tied.  Unless there is a total meltdown, I still think Romney squeaks it out here.  Early prediction - Romney  September Prediction - Romney.

Nevada - 6 EVs: This state is an interesting mix with both a sizable Hispanic and Mormon population.  Won easily by Obama in 2008, Nevada is a battleground once more. However, I think that the president's advantage among Hispanics will pull it out for him in the end.  Still agree with this analysis although the polls remain fairly close. Early prediction - Obama;  September Prediction - Obama

Iowa - 6 EVs: Recent polling shows this state as tied which is good news for Romney. Obama is well-organized here and this will be nip and tuck.  However, Iowa is very white and this is a group that has been deserting Obama in droves since 2008. Current Polling shows a neck and neck race here.  Both candidates are working very hard at this one.  Obama is in better shape in Iowa now than he was a month ago and based on his momentum, I will flip Iowa to the Democrats...for now.. Early prediction - Romney; September prediction - Obama

Colorado - 9 EVs: This is an eclectic state with a conservative rural and military population combined with liberal meccas like Boulder.  A high Hispanic turnout should help Obama, but early polling shows a very close race.  I have to flip a coin on this one. The coin I flipped in June is still on edge, but state polling is showing either a tie or small Obama lead so we will keep this the same as well. Early Prediction - Obama; September Prediction - Obama

Florida - 29 EVs:  This is a must-win for Romney and lends some weight to selecting Sen. Rubio for VP. Florida historically leans Republican, but Obama will be very competitive here.  But I see Romney pulling it out in the end based on his strong lead among voters over age 50. Polls show an absolute tie in Florida.  Not good news for Romney who hoped to put away this swing state early. Without a win here, his path to 270 becomes almost impossible. No longer think Romney has the advantage here as he is being hammered over Medicare and immigration.  But with the state's economy in poor shape comparatively I will leave it where it was, but would not be surprised at all if it flips back to the president. Early Prediction - Romney; September prediction - Romney

Virginia - 13 EVs:  The Old Dominion is getting more purple than it was thanks to an influx of wealthy, educated, and socially liberal whites in the DC suburbs, but much of it remains part of the old South.  Republicans won big here in 2010, but I think Obama prevails here for a second time due to a large and enthusiastic turnout in Fairfax County. This will be very closely contested.  Polling now shows Obama expanding his lead.  This is another must-win for Romney, but if things continue as they are I see him losing by at least 5 points. Obama really has solidified his lead in northern Virginia and the DC suburbs.  The addition of former VA Rep and Libertarian presidential candidate Virgil Goode also drains some votes that would likely go to Romney.  Early prediction - Obama; September prediction - Obama

Pennsylvania - 20 EVs: Described by strategist James Carville as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends with Alabama in the middle, PA is a state with a split personality.  Romney will win in the rural central part of the state and in coal country while Obama will rake in the urban areas.  The election will be won in suburbia but with a historic Democratic lean I will place PA (for now) as an Obama state.  Polling shows this state leaning further into Obama's camp.  The fact that Romney is not campaigning or advertising heavily in PA is another indicator that he is writing this state off.  Obama should win by a comfortable margin, some polls now have him in a double digit lead. Early prediction - Obama; September prediction - Obama

Ohio - 18 EVs:  Another must win for Romney; no Republican has won the presidency in recent history without the Buckeye state. Again this is a battle to be waged in suburban Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati with Romney winning big in rural areas and Obama holding the cities.  This will be close, but I give the edge to Romney at this point. Not any more.  Romney is consistently down by ever widening margins especially over the past couple of weeks.  Looks like the auto bailout and Ohio's comparatively good local economy is boosting the president.  In some polling he is winning women by 20 points and the race is even among men.  Romney needs to turn this one around immediately or he is in deep trouble. Early prediction - Romney; September prediction - Obama

Michigan - 16 EVs:  Obama seemed very strong here a month ago, but recent polling shows a closer race.  Romney has family ties here, but his opposition to the auto bailout has hurt him. MI has been trending Democratic in recent years and while close, I think Obama will squeak it out here. Like Ohio, the president seems to be pulling away.  Another state where Romney has stopped advertising as well. looks like another state Obama does not have to worry about or dedicate a lot of resources to  Early prediction - Obama; September prediction - Obama

Wisconsin - 10 EVs: This state was very close in 2000 and 2004, but was won easily by Obama in 2008.  The recent failure of the recall election against Gov. Walker and a strong Republican organization makes this very competitive this time around.  A possible Paul Ryan VP pick makes this even more interesting. Another coin flip...The Ryan pick has made this state competitive, but polling in WI is showing the same trend of independents and women to Obama.  Ryan may not be enough here as Romney continues to falter, in fact, I am now thinking that Obama wins this by a few.  Early prediction - Romney; September prediction - Obama

New Hampshire - 4 EVs:  In an election as potentially close as this one, the Granite State's four electoral voes may decide the winner. Historically Republican, but trending Democratic, this will be close.  Romney has spent a lot of time here, but polling shows that his move to the political right may hurt him in this libertarian state.  One more coin flip.  Based on consistent polling showing an Obama advantage, I am keeping this where it is. Early prediction - Obama; September prediction - Obama

Thus based on recent developments this is no longer a tie...




 As I said before this is a snapshot.  If I called it today, President Obama wins a fairly comfortable victory of 303 to 235.  If Florida trends in his direction, Obama would best Romney by 332 to 206 - which is getting close to a landslide by Electoral College measures.

National polling is showing the same trend toward Obama with AP, Pew, the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal giving Obama a lead from 3 to 8 points. However two polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) are showing the race remains a dead heat.

The troubling thing for the Romney campaign is that the polls are consistently showing that his ace in the hole on the economy is now gone.  Many voters appear to give the President the benefit of the doubt and agree with former President Clinton that he needs four more years to did the nation out of its current debacle. Romney s muddled messaging and continuous gaffes are compounding the issue and time keeps slipping away.

We still have 45 days to go - recall that Gore had a small lead at this point in 2000 and than had three poor debate performances.  The debates are now Romney's best (and maybe last) change to change to direction of this race.  The first debate on October 3 looms large.

I will run one more Electoral College analysis after the debates toward the end of October and of course publish final predictions on Nov. 5.

Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts Senate Race 2012

Finally time for an update and analysis of the Brown-Warren race in Massachusetts for the US Senate...

Overview

Scott Brown won a special election in January 2010 to fill the remainder of the term that late senator Edward Kennedy had secured in 2006.  As this term is now up, Brown is running to retain the seat for six additional years.

Readers of the Political Pulse will note that I covered the 2010 special election in some depth.  In short, Republican candidate Brown was able to surprise Democratic candidate Martha Coakley by running on Tea Party fueled enthusiasm, his "regular guy" persona, political moderation (essential for a Republican to win a statewide race in Massachusetts), and the utter ineptitude of the overconfident Coakley campaign.  It was a relatively close result with Brown emerging as a three point victor.

Brown has maintained strong favorability ratings over the past two years.  Under normal circumstances with the advantages of incumbency he should be a cinch for reelection...but, this is Massachusetts, the bluest of blue states!

Enter Elizabeth Warren

Former Harvard Professor and Obama Administration official Elizabeth Warren was urged last year by both state and national Democratic organizations to mount a run against Brown.

Coming from the progressive left wing of the Democratic Party, Warren takes many unabashedly liberal positions, especially on economic and consumer issues.  This resonates strongly with party activists and has helped her with fundraising and organization. Warren was easily able to secure the Democratic Party nomination at the party convention and thus avoid a primary election opponent.

Campaign thus far

Advertising

In an unique agreement, both Brown and Warren taken "The People's Pledge" to keep outside SuperPacs, party committees, and 527s from advertising in the race.  Candidate's that benefit from any third party advertisement to donate a sum equal to 50% of the value of that ad to a charity of the other candidate's choice.

Advertising was generally positive from both candidates until the past week.  Warren has been under some pressure to retool her advertising as perceptions are that her somewhat professorial manner is not connecting with the broader citizenry.The Warren campaign is now running ads showing endorsements from ordinary citizens extolling her support for the middle class.

Enormous sums of money are being spent on this race.  Both candidates have deep financial pockets and as control of the Senate may hinge on this seat

Polling

Polling has shown a close race with Brown holding a small lead in the most recent surveys.

• Big gender gap - Brown is leading among men, Warren is winning the female vote.
• Predictably, Republicans (all 12 of them) support Brown and most Democrats are behind Warren.  Brown is peeling off a slice of Democrats however.  the real story is the over 50% of voters who identify as Independent.  Brown has a lead in this group and that is providing him the 2-4 point lead in recent surveys.
• Bear in mind that all the polling is within the margin of error so statistically the race is a tie.  However Brown having even a small advantage makes a good headline for his campaign.

Brown's Strategy

• Portray moderate ideology, essential to win in Massachusetts.
• Keep running positive ads (featuring the truck) meeting with ordinary citizens.
• Highlight accomplishments and legislation; Brown's latest ad shows President Obama signing legislation reforming congressional insider trading that he initially proposed.
• Garner support from conservative and "lunch-bucket" Democrats.  He will be campaigning in Lowell, Worcester, Waltham, and South Boston.  Recent endorsements of urban Democrats (Former Boston Mayor Ray Flynn and former Worcester Mayor Konnie Lukes) helps here.
• Encourage ticket spitting - a Massachusetts tradition.  Brown will need a substantial number of Obama voters to cross over and vote for him in the Senate race.
• Perform well enough in the debates i.e. no gaffes or awkward moments.
• Keep referring to Warren as "Professor Warren".  Academic intellectuals do not score many points in the demographics that Brown is trying to reach.
• Drive the truck, it worked before. 

Warren's Strategy

• Appeal to the Democratic base, women, and minorities.
• Tie herself to President Obama (who remains popular in Mass) and the importance of Democrats retaining control of the US Senate. 
• Tie Brown to the national and southern-dominated GOP. Nationalizing the election may offset Brown's local popularity.
• She won't win Independents, but needs to keep Brown's margin down.
• Portray herself as fighting for ordinary folk and remind voters that Brown is a Wall Street Republican.
• Beat Brown badly in the televised debates.
• Try to show a softer and more folksy side.  She really needs to start connecting.  Being preachy does not resonate past her base.
• Avoid gaffes - the Cherokee Indian fiasco of the spring did her no favors.
• Appeal to the Democratic base, women, and minorities. (yes this needs repeating!)

Keys to victory on election night

• Brown needs to win big in Central Mass, Southeastern Mass, and the North Shore, and stay competitive in Middlesex County.  Outer cities such as Lowell, Fitchburg, and Worcester are critical.  If he can fight Warren to a draw in these areas he will win.
• Warren needs a huge turnout in urban areas, college towns (Amherst, Cambridge, Northampton), and for Obama to win big in the state overall so she can benefit from Obama's coattails. 

Early Prediction

It will be a very close race.  Warren by virtue of the "D" next to her name has a base of around 40%-45% just for showing up.  Much of this will rest on how many Obama voters split their tickets.  Brown does have an advantage in being the incumbent, personal popularity, and seems (so far) to have distanced himself enough from the national Republican Party to keep the support of many of the groups that propelled him to victory in January 2010.

If Romney crashes nationally, it will really boost Warren as dispirited Republicans may stay home.  The debates with Brown and how the overall presidential fall campaigns evolves are essential to her winning.

However, Warren has to change the overall dynamics of the race.  If it remains as it is, I think Brown ekes out a narrow victory.

Onwards!


The Prof

Post Convention Wrap-up Part 2

And the Democrats have just had their turn.  Now it begins...

The Democrats needed to fire up their base, motivate their constituent groups and appeal to the large group of voters who supported the president in 2008, but who are now wavering.  Was this sucessful?

Early post convention polling seems to suggest that it was.  From my perspective the Democrats were able to accomplish many of these goals and more importantly frame the election as a choice (which is good for Obama) versus a referendum on the past four years (which is good for Romney).

Was the base fired up?

Undoubtedly yes.  Unlike the Republicans who may respect, but who don't love their candidate, the party faithful in Charlotte seem to truly love President Obama and will invest an incredible amount of passion to reelect him.  Romney was predictably painted as an out of touch billionaire, but much of the convention was a full throated defense of the president and how he needed four more years to dig out of the mess he inherited.

Were party's constituents group motivated?

There was an amazing amount of red meat thrown to various activist groups from the abortion issue, to immigration, to gays, to minorities, and to unions.  This was not a convention (apart from the Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama addresses) designed to reach out to middle of the road voters.  This will be a "base election" and both parties are pulling out all the stops to fire up their voters and key groups.

The Big Dog...

Bill Clinton is perhaps the best natural politician that this nation has produced in the last generation if not century.  He gave a folksy address defending the president and lambasting the Republican's "extremism and obstructionism".  This was aimed at suburban college-educated voters who supported Obama in 2008, but who are somewhat loathe to do so again.  He also did Hillary Clinton a huge service - if Obama wins in 2012 and Hillary runs in 2016 there is a massive favor to call in.

Michelle Obama gave a very well received address.  She sought to humanize the rather chilly and aloof  impression that many have of the her husband.  This was aimed at female voters and certainly didn't hurt.

Curiously, the President's address ran more like his standard stump speech than the soaring rhetoric of 2008.  It was a solidly delivered "stay the course" speech, but after Mr. Clinton's address, a bit of a deflated ending to the convention.

However, not all was well...

There was a major embarrassment when the convention voted to reinstate language regarding Jerusalem being the capital of Israel and language invoking God back into the party platform. This was done by a 2/3 voice vote which clearly was adopted and rushed through without 2/3 (or even half) of delegates supporting it via a voice vote.  Additionally, as much of the convention highlighted positions and speechifying from rather far-left leaning speakers, there is risk of alienating the few swing voters who remain.

As with the Republican Convention, TV viewership was down from 2008.  As I stated before, there is case to be made that the three-day National Party Convention is becoming less meaningful.  The Democrats did benefit from going second and seem to have stepped on any convention "bounce" that Romney may have had.  In fact, early polling suggests that Obama is seeing a bounce of a few points.  We shall see if this is sustained over the next couple of weeks - especially in light of the very disappointing August jobs report which threatens to step on this bounce. 

A quick mention about the August jobs report - the unemployment rate did drop from 8.3% to 8.1%.  If the public looks at this statistic it is a positive for the Obama Administration.  But...the net number of individuals in the workforce declined sharply, thus lowering the rate due to discouraged people not looking for work. The Romney campaign is focusing on this piece of very negative data to argue that the recovery is slowing.  Both campaigns will be spinning this furiously over the next week.

Now it is truly on.  First debate is scheduled for October 3.  58 days to go!

Onwards!


The Prof

Post Convention Wrap-up Part 1

Well four days...excuse me Hurricane Issac, three days of free media and and speechifying are behind us and the 2012 Republican Convention is a wrap.  It is important to bear in mind that national party conventions are becoming less relevant with each cycle.  Before the proliferation of cable outlets and later political websites and Twitter, the conventions were an opportune way to roll out a presidential candidate and platform to the lions-share of Americans who had limited information. Additionally, they actually mattered in terms of determining the presidential nominee as recently as 1976.

But today with greater polarization, with the parties selecting their candidates through primaries, and with conventions now being choreographed with no suspense most voters have tuned out.  The political class and media cover them wall to wall, but how many votes can they actually swing?  This is not to say that they are obsolete as they do motivate the party faithful and for the party out of power, present an opportunity to introduces their nominee on a national stage.

Much like in a previous posting on the VP selection, the Hippocratic Oath to do no harm is the key here. Did the Republican Party accomplish what is wanted and needed to?  Let's look at a few of these questions:

Be diverse and inclusive and not the stereotypical party dominated by white southern males...

I think this was accomplished for the most part.  There were many speaker presenting a diverse party face to the public.  Condi Rice, Artur Davis, and several other African Americans had prime-time speaking roles. Hispanics were highlighted as well in Gov. Susan Martinez of New Mexico and FL Senator Marco Rubio.

Many Republican women were featured with Ann Romney giving a very well received speech (more on this in a minute).

However, the visuals of the audience show a party membership that is undeniably dominated by older whites (polling bears this out as well).  Also, there was one particularly ugly incident that could have been attributed to racism that resulted in a couple of delegates being ejected from the convention.

Was an effective case laid out for replacing President Obama?  How specific was the GOP in outlining alternate policies?

The strategy was twofold - red meat to motivate the party activists and an appeal to moderate voters to convince them that is is "OK" to fire the President.  What was interesting on that end was that there was a minimum of over the top gratuitous attacks on Obama.  Rather there was an outlining of how Obama's priorities and policies have not been beneficial to the nation.  Some of the argument involved a lot of truth stretching - a common occurrence at political conventions.  But I think it was effective overall. We will see what the polling shows in the next few days.

VP nominee Paul Ryan gave a particularly effective speech to the convention although some of the assertions he made have been challenged.  I will also take a moment here to say that Ryan has injected much-needed energy in the Romney campaign. 

Mitt Romney also highlighted his private sector expertise and didn't run from Bain Capital, in fact he embraced it.  The betting is that presenting Romney as a fix-it candidate will resonate with the relatively low number of persuadable voters.

There was an interesting lack of focus (Ric Santorum excepted) on social issues.  The betting is that highlighting the GOP's social conservatism will not help with women and swing voters.  Note that MO candidate Todd Akin was immediately shunned by the party after some bizarre remarks that would be toxic if they were not quickly repudiated.

Was Mitt Romney "humanized?"

Ann Romney's speech began the process of transforming the perception of Mitt Romney.  Humanizing him is very important.  The Obama campaign's negative ads regarding Bain Capital have been particularly effective and the strategy to counter this was to present Romney as a family man, not a Snidely Whiplash robber-baron.

Overall, I think that this worked.  The litany of speakers personalizing Romney wrapping up with his acceptances speech where he showed emotion contrasted with the public image that many may have had.  How much success with voters this had will be determined in the next few weeks.

Romney's acceptance speech was good which is about what he was aiming for.  He will never be ranked with the great orators, but he had to present himself as presidential,  This was accomplished.

Clint Eastwood - no comment! (OK, in hindsight this may have been an effective bit of impromptu theater, but I was truly cringing on my initial viewing of his 12 minute...address)

My overall take is that the convention succeeded in what it needed to do. The party faithful seemed pleased with how things went and there were no major hiccups or bad moments.  TV viewership was down considerably from 2008, so this cannot all be construed as positive.  But the party faithful were motivated and Romney was able to leave Tampa heading a unified and more importantly, motivated party.

Remember that political conventions typically produce a polling bounce of a few point is the week following.  With the polling showing a virtually tied race with very few undecideds, I think the bounce will be on the low side.

We will look at the Democrat's turn in North Carolina this week with an analysis next weekend.

Post party conventions and Labor Day - it's game on for the next eight weeks!

Onwards!

The Prof

Paul Ryan is the VP pick, quick reaction

As always, I fired up my twitter feed when I awoke this morning and saw that the mounting speculation in the last few days regarding Wisconsin Rep and Chair of the House Budget Committee Paul Ryan was indeed correct.  Time for a quick analysis.

This is what I posted three weeks ago about Paul Ryan's chances for selection. Yes, the same posting when I predicted that Bobby Jindahl would be the selection - more omelet on face please!

Paul Ryan - Representative from Wisconsin
Pros: Policy wonk, may help in WI, budget expertise
Cons: Lightening rod for Democrats over budget proposals, not well known
Likelihood: Medium

Time for a more detailed pro/con list...Romney truly went out of the box instead of a safe pick like Portman or Pawlenty. Bold decision by Romney, but would he do this if he felt comfortable in winning this November?

Pros

• Fires up the Republican base big time! This adds to the notion of this being and election about turning out base voters and true believers.  On fiscal issues, Ryan is a the real deal with Tea Party voters who will now have much more motivation to come out and work for Romney's election.
• See above - this solidifies Romney's conservative credentials and ought to quiet calls that he is too moderate or wishy-washy.
• Ryan is as passionate with his speaking style as Romney is, uh... boring.  Additionally he has a folksy Midwestern persona which may help with connecting with working class whites.
• Solid policy and intellectual chops.
• Ryan is a way to focus the economic differences with the Obama administration and adds credibility to domestic policy under a Romney administration being a complete departure from that of President Obama.
• WI is a swing state, will this be enough to swing it red this year?  Romney is betting that the Midwest goes his way, in fact it must if he is to win.  Ryan may help out by a point or two.
• Mormon-Catholic ticket - a first indeed...

Cons

• Ryan has proposed major reforms on the budget including a partial privatization of Medicare.  Target rich environment.  Ads showing vulnerable seniors are already being shot as I write...can he survive the third rail of politics? Democrats will try very hard to make this about Ryan and his "radical" policies that hurt the poor and vulnerable. 
• See above: Feeds into the storyline that Romney is a robber-baron and the reincarnation of Gordon Gecko. Obama's attack ads have been eroding his support among key groups, especially women. Expect the negative ads to continue and redouble.
• Ryan is 42, but looks 28.  Young and no strong foreign policy credentials - another line of attack.
• This makes Ryan part of the campaign - does it distract from the campaign strategy that this is a referendum on the president?
• Does this pick smack of worry (desperation) on Romney's part?   Going bold can be spun as desperation.

Pardon the football analogy, but the Prof is quite the New England Patriots fan. This is not the Hail Mary Pass (dropped and fumbled by Palin) of 2008, but certainly a tricky pass over the middle on 3rd and 8.  Into traffic.  Ryan better be able to pull moves like Wes Welker in the next 87 days.

Onwards!


The Prof