Just a short update as the holidays are upon us...
In no particular order, here are some lessons and conclusions from the 2012 race...
Defining your opponent and early attack ads work!
The Obama campaign made a strategic decision early on to attack and define Romney as a corporate raider who did not care about ordinary folks and who would stand up for greedy venture capitalists. This worked insofar as it really put a cap on the support that Romney could win from traditional working class voters in the Midwest. It also served to build a narrative that Romney was never really able to shake.
Fail to respond to attacks at one's own peril.
See point above. Romney made a critical error in not immediately responding to the negative ad barrage over the summer. He choose to spend campaign dollars later in the cycle. Traditionally this would be the prudent thing to do, but things have changed immensely in the past few years. The rise and dominance to the new media means that strategic attacks will be remembered as it is far easier to distribute these campaigns than it was in the past. By the time Romney tried to craft a positive image, the overall poor public perception of him had formed and become entrenched. Those who fight the last campaign usually lose. Also, Romney underutilized media sources outside of traditional ones to reach younger voters.
Organization and ground war wins elections.
The Obama campaign had the luxury of having four years to prepare for reelection and wasted no time in developing the most formidable GOTV and voter ID effort ever undertaken. Romney relied more on mass media blitzes late in the campaign and was generally out-hustled on the ground. This was instrumental in allowing Obama to get many more young voters to the polls than the Romney campaign ever anticipated.
Debates do not matter as much as we (or Republicans) thought.
Yes, the first debate did help Romney, but he failed to keep the momentum. Had he done poorly in the first debate he would have lost by a greater margin, but the evidence shows that the President led throughout the campaign. There was a window for Romney, but he decided to play it safe and failed to seize the initiative when the Obama campaign was back on it's heels. A good 90-minute performance simply cannot right a campaign that was losing almost every news cycle.
Polling IS accurate!
If anything the national polling showed a slight Republican bias much to the chagrin of GOP boosters who complained about biased polls. A pollster who biases or otherwise does not conduct a good survey won't be in business for very long. The turnout model did in fact look more like 2008 than 2004. Pay attention to reputable polls, they really are very predictive!
George W. Bush continues to own the economy.
Usually, high wrong track numbers, high unemployment, and a sputtering economy will doom a sitting president, however...
Exit polling showed a good amount of economic dissatisfaction, but Obama did not get the bulk of the blame. Instead his President Bush still is perceived as responsible for the continuing economic struggles. If anything, people credited Obama with the recovery albeit a slow one. Bill Clinton is owed a lot for standing up with the president over the economic situation and reinforcing the notion that the conditions were inherited and would take more than four years to fix. Additionally the perception is that economic conditions are improving. The national unemployment rate dropping under 8% in October was vital in this narrative.
This also allowed Obama to tie Romney to Bush and this was a problem that dogged Romney throughout the campaign. This made it nearly impossible for Romney to disassociate himself from the previous administration.
Hurricane Sandy was important.
The storm allowed Obama to look and act presidential and also took Romney effectively off the campaign trail in the critical final week. Voter turnout in the affected areas was down, but Obama over-performed in the states of NJ and CT and it is likely the storm response boosted his numbers. Curiously, a sizable number of those exit polled cited Sandy as a major decision factor - undecided voters appeared to break to Obama as well in the last few days. A reasonable case can be made that wavering voters (not that there were many left) decided to stick with the President based on the very favorable media coverage of the storm response.
The Gender Gap widens.
Females (53% of voters in 2012) were one of the keys to Obama's victory, even more so than in 2008. Obama won women by an impressive 55%-44% margin. Romney did win men solidly, but not by enough to offset this. The gender gap was a major factor for the Democrats gaining US House and Senate seats as well.
Female voters generally were put off by the uncompromising GOP stance on abortion which not only sunk Romney, but several Republican Senate candidates as well. Exit polling shows that this issue is pivotal for female suburban swing voters. The GOP would be well advised to rethink the uncompromising language in 2016.
Demographics are changing.
Only 72% of the electorate was white this year. This number has been falling at an ever increasing rate since the 1980s. While Romney won white voters by 20 points, he got beaten very badly among minority voters including the fast growing Hispanic population. Romney also lost badly among Asian Americans another rapidly growing group.
Younger voters were also Obama supporters much like in 2008. If this continues, the very large Millennial Generation will become habitual Democrats. Unless the GOP can successfully appeal to minorities and younger voters they will have a very hard time winning the presidency anytime soon. There simply are not enough white voters anymore. Republican strategy failed to see the changing face of American voters. Additionally, many younger and minority voters are not reachable via traditional polling methods which also accounted for some of the polls being slightly biased in Romney's favor.
The GOP is losing the "culture wars".
Aided by unforced errors by Senate candidates in Missouri and Indiana, the GOP cultivated the appearance of a hard-right and intolerant party. By failing to recognize changing national perceptions and demographics this is recipe for disaster unless some of the hard edged perspectives are at least softened. Younger voters are simply more likely to vote on social issues such as women's issues and minority rights and are more liberal than generations past. President Obama recognized this and moved to the left on social issues, especially same-sex marriage. It helped him tremendously with these voters.
The 47% remark.
This was the gift that kept on giving for the Obama campaign. It fit the Obama narrative very well and helped define Romney as and out of touch and uncaring child of privilege.
Economic populism works!
Economic fairness or class warfare depending on your ideology is an appealing message. The evidence suggests that the public has moved slightly to the left on economics and Romney's embrace of limited government and free market principals was not appealing in the wake of the 2008 economic meltdown. The GOP's refusal to entertain even minor tax increases on the wealthy likely added to the perception that they were out of touch with the middle class.
Lastly... the national vote margin looks to be around 3.1%. Not a landslide, but certainly enough as it demonstrates the Democrats continuing dominance of presidential elections since the 1990s. It is important to remember that since 1992 the Republicans only captured a plurality of votes in only one election (2004) and that the Democrats have won pluralities in every other election (2000 excepted, sorry Al Gore).
The 2012 election demonstrates continuing deep divisions in the nation on both economic and social issues. The exit polls confirm that the older and whiter one is, the more likely to support Republican and Conservative messaging while young people and minority groups are generally more receptive to liberal perspectives on the issues of the day.
The nation is also split geographically with cities and inner suburbs being solid blue while exurbs and rural areas are colored red. There are counties in North Texas that voted over 90% for Romney and inner-city Philadelphia precincts that had 100% turnout for Obama.
In the coming weeks I will write a postmortem on the Brown-Warren race in Massachusetts, provide some unsolicited advice for each political party going forward, look at the 2014 Governor's race in the Bay State, and of course begin handicapping for the 2016 contest. After all, it is only 1,448 days until November 8, 2016...
Onwards!
The Prof
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Obama wins - how did the Prof do?
My predictions and actual results from Tuesday...
The Prof's final grade on his previous predictions: C+
Well, at least I called the winner correctly, but missed the call in the critical states of FL, VA, CO, and NH. In all of the swing states, I under-predicted Obama's vote. Most of the polling was correct, but with a slight Republican bias. Kudos to Nate Silver at 538 for nailing it exactly - he went 50 for 50. Gallup has a lot of egg on its face along with Rasmussen. However, if about a half million votes were reallocated in the swing states Romney would have won so some really were coin flips - at least in the predicting!
Pundits like Michael Barone, Dick Morris, and Karl Rove have a lot of 'splaining to do as each predicted a Romney victory with over 300 Electoral Votes, so I don't feel that bad...
In my next post, I will explore what happened, why it broke the way it did, and what it means for future elections (GOP, it ain't pretty!).
Electoral Vote Prediction:
Obama 277
Romney 261
Electoral Vote Actual:
Obama 332
Romney 206
National Vote Prediction: (two person)
Romney 50.2%
Obama 49.8%
National Vote Actual: (two person)
Obama 51.3%
Romney 48.7%
Swing States Predictions vs.Actual results
(Actual Results do not add to 100% due to minor party candidates)
North Carolina - 15 EVs:
November: Well let's start with the easiest call. Turnout as in all places will matter. Early voting shows a smaller advantage for Obama than in 2008 and a heavy Romney vote on Tuesday will swamp this.
North Carolina Final Prediction: Romney 52-48
Actual Result Romney 50.5% - 48.3%
Romney did better with white voters than did McCain in 2008, but massive African-American and younger turnout almost kept this state in Obama's column. This ought to be very worrying for the GOP as NC was a lock as recently as 2004 - no more.
Nevada - 6 EVs:
November: Early voting and the President's wide lead among hispanics deliver the state for Obama. The substantial Mormon and rural population will keep it closer than last time, but Clark County (Las Vegas area) will put Obama over the top. He won by 15 points in 2008 and Romney simply won't be able to make that up.
Nevada Final Prediction: Obama 53-47
Actual Result Obama 52.3% - 45.7%
I was pretty good on this one - as I predicted, union and Hispanic turnout won it for the President. This is swing state that is getting bluer by the year.
Iowa - 6 EVs:
November: Polls are still showing it neck and neck. This will be about turnout and independent voters. Early voting shows an advantage for the President, but my sense is it will be a late evening as Republican registrations are now on par with Democrats, unlike in 2008, but the counting may be late into the night. Watch the turnout in the pro-Obama Quad Cities and in conservative western Iowa. Last batch of polls show Obama gaining momentum so I am flipping it to him.
Iowa Final Prediction: Obama 51-49
Actual Result Obama 51.9% - 46.3%
As with many states, I underestimated the Obama turnout machine. Obama did better among working class whites in the Midwest and this is evident in Iowa.
Colorado - 9 EVs:
November: Early voting figures (based on registered voters casting ballots) are continuing to favor Romney. As everywhere, turnout is key. If Denver and Boulder do not come out in massive numbers, Romney will win this by a whisker helped by the large number of active military and retired veterans who reside in the state.
Colorado Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Actual Result Obama 51.2% - 46.4%
Blew this one totally. Most polling showed it neck and neck, but as with Nevada, younger voters and Hispanics (big college turnout in Boulder) gave the President a decent win in Colorado. Another swing state that is getting bluer...
Florida - 29 EVs:
November: Romney has spent time in Florida this week which shows that he does not have Florida nailed down yet. Watch returns from the critical I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa and is turnout in hyper-conservative North Florida is high (some of these counties lean Republican 75-25). Do Hispanics stay with Obama in the Miami suburbs? This will be close, but the over 65 vote looks to be a lock for Romney (ObamaCare is not popular with this crowd) and this put him over the top. I also believe that the Jewish vote in South Florida will not be as pro-Obama as it was in 2008 due to differences over US policy toward Israel.
Final Prediction: Romney 53-47
Actual Result Obama 50.0% - 49.1%
Mea Maxima Culpa - not many people foresaw the Hispanic, including the Cuban turnout to go so against Romney. The Puerto Rican vote in Florida went overwhelmingly to Obama. Early in the evening I was looking at Hillsborough and Polk counties which Romney needed and saw them closer than anticipated. In fact, Obama carried Polk outside of Tampa which traditionally was GOP friendly. Florida, obviously is not an easy state to call. If these trends continue, this state could drift to the blue team as well.
Virginia - 13 EVs:
November: This is a must win state for Romney and he has poured an incredible amount of resources into it. The President's team has done the same thing so again, this will be all about who turns out their voters. Early voting numbers suggest that Republican leaning counties are outperforming their 2008 turnout while turnout in the DC suburbs is slightly lower than 2008.If Obama outperforms in Northern VA and the DC suburbs he will win. However, I think Romney will do just well enough in these areas coupled with a strong vote elsewhere in the state (especially coal country) to win another late night squeaker - assuming that Goode of the Constitution Party does not steal more than a few votes.
Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Actual Result Obama 50.7% - 47.7%
This was a coin toss and my coin landed on the wrong side. Obama won where he needed to and although Romney did better in traditional conservative areas, the DC suburbs broke heavily to the President. Like North Carolina, Virginia is another previously safe GOP state that is now gone.
Pennsylvania - 20 EVs:
November: Big news here is that in the past week Romney has poured a ton of resources here late in the game. This would not be happening and he would not be personally campaigning here if something in their internal numbers did not show them with a legitimate shot here. Romney will do very well in rural areas, but I still think Obama wins PA with overwhelming urban support, but if Philly doesn't turnout like it did in 2008, this is a call I may end up missing thus causing Obama campaign manager David Axelrod to shave his legendary mustache. Calling it for the President based upon past state performance in close races (2000 and 2004) where Republicans fell just short and the Democrats nearly million person advantage among registered voters. But I think this is the place where Romney is most likely to surprise.
Final Prediction - Obama 51-49
Actual Result Obama 52.0% - 46.8%
Objects in the mirror are further than they appear. Romney's PA gamble was not a much better showing than McCain in 2008. White working class counties came out heavily for Romney, but were utterly swamped by the President's turnout machine in Philadelphia. The Philly suburbs were also areas where Obama was able to hold his own - thus another year that PA has remained a dream for the GOP.
Ohio - 18 EVs:
November: Rasmussen has the only poll out this week showing Romney with a 2 point lead, but every other poll still has Obama up by a few. All are within the margin of error making this yet another tough call. Enthusiasm seems to be on Romney's side especially with a 30,000 person turnout at a Friday evening rally near Cincinnati. In the end however, I think that the successful attacks on Romney, the auto bailout, and superior organization keeps Ohio in the Obama column, but 'twill be another late evening.
Final Prediction - Obama 51-49
Actual Result Obama 50.3% - 48.3%
The auto bailout was indeed key in Ohio. It was close, but again here, working class whites came out in just enough support of Obama to put him over the top. Obama's far superior ground game was a major factor as well.
Michigan - 16 EVs:
November: I concur with my last prediction, this will be close, but it is telling that neither Romney nor Ryan is visiting here over the past week. Both candidates have launched limited advertising in the past ten day, but this is just a bridge too far for Romney.
Final Prediction - Obama 53-47
Actual Result Obama 54.3% - 44.8%
Never that close. Like PA, MI is simply out of reach for the GOP for the foreseeable future.
Wisconsin - 10 EVs:
November: Both campaigns are fighting tooth and nail here. Obama won WI by 14% in 2008, but it is as close as they come and is vital for Romney if he loses OH. Republicans benefit from a strong ground operation as evidenced in the successful defense of Gov, Scott Walker in last spring's recall. Democrats benefit from Wisconsin's presidential vote for Democrats since 1988. But...the 2000 and 2004 margins were Democrat victories by less then a single percentage point. Like with Iowa, the last few surveys show a bounce for the President, therefore:
Final Prediction: Obama 52-48
Actual Result Obama 52.8% - 46.1%
At least I was close here. WI has a progressive tradition which along with college students and working class votes, kept this state in the Democrat's column. Yet another state which has a decided Democratic lean unless there is a very viable GOP candidate. Paul Ryan probably kept it closer than it otherwise would have been.
New Hampshire - 4 EVs:
November: This is a very tough call. Polling this week is showing a tie. However, if Romney is indeed leading among independents by several points, this may be the same in NH. Also, Romney is wrapping up his campaign with two stops here in the last three days. On the other hand Obama has carried a reservoir of good will in this state with a relatively low unemployment rate and NH voters are more liberal on social issues than the national GOP.. I think Romney makes it by the skin of his teeth.
Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Actual Result Romney 52.0% - 46.4%
NH has changed a lot in the past ten years pure and simple. Gone is flinty Yankee Republicanism, replaced by a fiscally moderate and socially liberal electorate. Immigration from Massachusetts has contributed greatly to this. Notable that other major offices went Democratic as well.
Wildcards:
These are the "stretch goal" states that either side which may be contestable...
in a perfect storm (like we saw in 2008)! It is highly unlikely that any of these are seriously contested on Tuesday, but let's have some numbers fun anyway.
Prediction Actual (numbers do not add to 100% due to minor party candidates)
Minnesota: Obama 53-47 53-45
Arizona: Romney 54-46 54-44
Indiana: Romney 56-44 54-44
New Jersey: Obama 55-45 58-41
Georgia: Romney 55-45 53-45
Oregon: Obama 53-47 54-43
Missouri: Romney 55-45 54-44
New Mexico: Obama 54-46 53-43
The two polls out this weekend showing both Minnesota and Michigan tied are outliers...I think!
Five Best Romney States
Prediction Actual
Prediction Actual
The actual result was 61-38, pretty close!
In depth analysis next time as there is a tremendous amount of dissecting to do. One thing that is indeed notable, senior Republican leaders are calling for the party to more moderate stances, while the Tea Party faction is calling for a more conservative shift. Which side will win - pragmnatism or ideology?
Onwards!
The Prof
The Prof's final grade on his previous predictions: C+
Well, at least I called the winner correctly, but missed the call in the critical states of FL, VA, CO, and NH. In all of the swing states, I under-predicted Obama's vote. Most of the polling was correct, but with a slight Republican bias. Kudos to Nate Silver at 538 for nailing it exactly - he went 50 for 50. Gallup has a lot of egg on its face along with Rasmussen. However, if about a half million votes were reallocated in the swing states Romney would have won so some really were coin flips - at least in the predicting!
Pundits like Michael Barone, Dick Morris, and Karl Rove have a lot of 'splaining to do as each predicted a Romney victory with over 300 Electoral Votes, so I don't feel that bad...
In my next post, I will explore what happened, why it broke the way it did, and what it means for future elections (GOP, it ain't pretty!).
Electoral Vote Prediction:
Obama 277
Romney 261
Electoral Vote Actual:
Obama 332
Romney 206
National Vote Prediction: (two person)
Romney 50.2%
Obama 49.8%
National Vote Actual: (two person)
Obama 51.3%
Romney 48.7%
Swing States Predictions vs.Actual results
(Actual Results do not add to 100% due to minor party candidates)
North Carolina - 15 EVs:
November: Well let's start with the easiest call. Turnout as in all places will matter. Early voting shows a smaller advantage for Obama than in 2008 and a heavy Romney vote on Tuesday will swamp this.
North Carolina Final Prediction: Romney 52-48
Actual Result Romney 50.5% - 48.3%
Romney did better with white voters than did McCain in 2008, but massive African-American and younger turnout almost kept this state in Obama's column. This ought to be very worrying for the GOP as NC was a lock as recently as 2004 - no more.
Nevada - 6 EVs:
November: Early voting and the President's wide lead among hispanics deliver the state for Obama. The substantial Mormon and rural population will keep it closer than last time, but Clark County (Las Vegas area) will put Obama over the top. He won by 15 points in 2008 and Romney simply won't be able to make that up.
Nevada Final Prediction: Obama 53-47
Actual Result Obama 52.3% - 45.7%
I was pretty good on this one - as I predicted, union and Hispanic turnout won it for the President. This is swing state that is getting bluer by the year.
Iowa - 6 EVs:
November: Polls are still showing it neck and neck. This will be about turnout and independent voters. Early voting shows an advantage for the President, but my sense is it will be a late evening as Republican registrations are now on par with Democrats, unlike in 2008, but the counting may be late into the night. Watch the turnout in the pro-Obama Quad Cities and in conservative western Iowa. Last batch of polls show Obama gaining momentum so I am flipping it to him.
Iowa Final Prediction: Obama 51-49
Actual Result Obama 51.9% - 46.3%
As with many states, I underestimated the Obama turnout machine. Obama did better among working class whites in the Midwest and this is evident in Iowa.
Colorado - 9 EVs:
November: Early voting figures (based on registered voters casting ballots) are continuing to favor Romney. As everywhere, turnout is key. If Denver and Boulder do not come out in massive numbers, Romney will win this by a whisker helped by the large number of active military and retired veterans who reside in the state.
Colorado Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Actual Result Obama 51.2% - 46.4%
Blew this one totally. Most polling showed it neck and neck, but as with Nevada, younger voters and Hispanics (big college turnout in Boulder) gave the President a decent win in Colorado. Another swing state that is getting bluer...
Florida - 29 EVs:
November: Romney has spent time in Florida this week which shows that he does not have Florida nailed down yet. Watch returns from the critical I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa and is turnout in hyper-conservative North Florida is high (some of these counties lean Republican 75-25). Do Hispanics stay with Obama in the Miami suburbs? This will be close, but the over 65 vote looks to be a lock for Romney (ObamaCare is not popular with this crowd) and this put him over the top. I also believe that the Jewish vote in South Florida will not be as pro-Obama as it was in 2008 due to differences over US policy toward Israel.
Final Prediction: Romney 53-47
Actual Result Obama 50.0% - 49.1%
Mea Maxima Culpa - not many people foresaw the Hispanic, including the Cuban turnout to go so against Romney. The Puerto Rican vote in Florida went overwhelmingly to Obama. Early in the evening I was looking at Hillsborough and Polk counties which Romney needed and saw them closer than anticipated. In fact, Obama carried Polk outside of Tampa which traditionally was GOP friendly. Florida, obviously is not an easy state to call. If these trends continue, this state could drift to the blue team as well.
Virginia - 13 EVs:
November: This is a must win state for Romney and he has poured an incredible amount of resources into it. The President's team has done the same thing so again, this will be all about who turns out their voters. Early voting numbers suggest that Republican leaning counties are outperforming their 2008 turnout while turnout in the DC suburbs is slightly lower than 2008.If Obama outperforms in Northern VA and the DC suburbs he will win. However, I think Romney will do just well enough in these areas coupled with a strong vote elsewhere in the state (especially coal country) to win another late night squeaker - assuming that Goode of the Constitution Party does not steal more than a few votes.
Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Actual Result Obama 50.7% - 47.7%
This was a coin toss and my coin landed on the wrong side. Obama won where he needed to and although Romney did better in traditional conservative areas, the DC suburbs broke heavily to the President. Like North Carolina, Virginia is another previously safe GOP state that is now gone.
Pennsylvania - 20 EVs:
November: Big news here is that in the past week Romney has poured a ton of resources here late in the game. This would not be happening and he would not be personally campaigning here if something in their internal numbers did not show them with a legitimate shot here. Romney will do very well in rural areas, but I still think Obama wins PA with overwhelming urban support, but if Philly doesn't turnout like it did in 2008, this is a call I may end up missing thus causing Obama campaign manager David Axelrod to shave his legendary mustache. Calling it for the President based upon past state performance in close races (2000 and 2004) where Republicans fell just short and the Democrats nearly million person advantage among registered voters. But I think this is the place where Romney is most likely to surprise.
Final Prediction - Obama 51-49
Actual Result Obama 52.0% - 46.8%
Objects in the mirror are further than they appear. Romney's PA gamble was not a much better showing than McCain in 2008. White working class counties came out heavily for Romney, but were utterly swamped by the President's turnout machine in Philadelphia. The Philly suburbs were also areas where Obama was able to hold his own - thus another year that PA has remained a dream for the GOP.
Ohio - 18 EVs:
November: Rasmussen has the only poll out this week showing Romney with a 2 point lead, but every other poll still has Obama up by a few. All are within the margin of error making this yet another tough call. Enthusiasm seems to be on Romney's side especially with a 30,000 person turnout at a Friday evening rally near Cincinnati. In the end however, I think that the successful attacks on Romney, the auto bailout, and superior organization keeps Ohio in the Obama column, but 'twill be another late evening.
Final Prediction - Obama 51-49
Actual Result Obama 50.3% - 48.3%
The auto bailout was indeed key in Ohio. It was close, but again here, working class whites came out in just enough support of Obama to put him over the top. Obama's far superior ground game was a major factor as well.
Michigan - 16 EVs:
November: I concur with my last prediction, this will be close, but it is telling that neither Romney nor Ryan is visiting here over the past week. Both candidates have launched limited advertising in the past ten day, but this is just a bridge too far for Romney.
Final Prediction - Obama 53-47
Actual Result Obama 54.3% - 44.8%
Never that close. Like PA, MI is simply out of reach for the GOP for the foreseeable future.
Wisconsin - 10 EVs:
November: Both campaigns are fighting tooth and nail here. Obama won WI by 14% in 2008, but it is as close as they come and is vital for Romney if he loses OH. Republicans benefit from a strong ground operation as evidenced in the successful defense of Gov, Scott Walker in last spring's recall. Democrats benefit from Wisconsin's presidential vote for Democrats since 1988. But...the 2000 and 2004 margins were Democrat victories by less then a single percentage point. Like with Iowa, the last few surveys show a bounce for the President, therefore:
Final Prediction: Obama 52-48
Actual Result Obama 52.8% - 46.1%
At least I was close here. WI has a progressive tradition which along with college students and working class votes, kept this state in the Democrat's column. Yet another state which has a decided Democratic lean unless there is a very viable GOP candidate. Paul Ryan probably kept it closer than it otherwise would have been.
New Hampshire - 4 EVs:
November: This is a very tough call. Polling this week is showing a tie. However, if Romney is indeed leading among independents by several points, this may be the same in NH. Also, Romney is wrapping up his campaign with two stops here in the last three days. On the other hand Obama has carried a reservoir of good will in this state with a relatively low unemployment rate and NH voters are more liberal on social issues than the national GOP.. I think Romney makes it by the skin of his teeth.
Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Actual Result Romney 52.0% - 46.4%
NH has changed a lot in the past ten years pure and simple. Gone is flinty Yankee Republicanism, replaced by a fiscally moderate and socially liberal electorate. Immigration from Massachusetts has contributed greatly to this. Notable that other major offices went Democratic as well.
Wildcards:
These are the "stretch goal" states that either side which may be contestable...
in a perfect storm (like we saw in 2008)! It is highly unlikely that any of these are seriously contested on Tuesday, but let's have some numbers fun anyway.
Prediction Actual (numbers do not add to 100% due to minor party candidates)
Minnesota: Obama 53-47 53-45
Arizona: Romney 54-46 54-44
Indiana: Romney 56-44 54-44
New Jersey: Obama 55-45 58-41
Georgia: Romney 55-45 53-45
Oregon: Obama 53-47 54-43
Missouri: Romney 55-45 54-44
New Mexico: Obama 54-46 53-43
The two polls out this weekend showing both Minnesota and Michigan tied are outliers...I think!
Five Best Romney States
Prediction Actual
- Utah 72% 73%
- Oklahoma 70% 67%
- Idaho 69% 65%
- Arkansas 64% 61%
- Wyoming 63% 69%
- West VA N/A 62%
Prediction Actual
- Vermont 67% 67%
- Hawaii 64% 71%
- New York 62% 63%
- Rhode Island 61% 63%
- Maryland 61% 62%
The actual result was 61-38, pretty close!
In depth analysis next time as there is a tremendous amount of dissecting to do. One thing that is indeed notable, senior Republican leaders are calling for the party to more moderate stances, while the Tea Party faction is calling for a more conservative shift. Which side will win - pragmnatism or ideology?
Onwards!
The Prof
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Final 2012 Prediction: Obama 277 Romney 261
I have been working on this post for three days as I wanted to have all necessary data and news over the weekend before releasing this. There have been some tweaks based on this material.
I rewrote this a couple of times. However new data over the last weekend pushed me to the prediction that I am making.
Michael Barone, long-time editor of the Almanac of American Politics put it very succinctly in his projection yesterday: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections." With this in mind, I predict that we will re-elect President Obama on November 6, 2012
This is my reasoning:
- Demographics. The White vote will not be enough for Romney and there will be a larger than expected minority turnout - just enough to get Obama victories in states like OH, NV and WI.
- Swing state poll models are correct and Rasmussen is the outlier. It is possible that the electorate will be as Democratic-leaning as 2008...although I will really be shocked if this is the case.
- Romney peaked a week too early. Hurricane Sandy allowed Obama to look and act presidential (will Gov. Christie be drummed out of the GOP for his embrace of the President if this happens?) and the October jobs report was generally OK, not great, but not terrible.
- Hurricane Sandy took Romney's closing arguments off the news cycle and "froze" the race.
- Romney's infamous 47% remark turned off many voters who may otherwise have considered him.
- Obama successfully defined Romney as a corporate raider and swung enough Independents against Romney to hold on in battleground states.
- Obama was successful in arguing that his policies prevented a second Great Depression. Economic trends are positive enough that voters wanted to "stay the course".
- Four years of political organizing paid off with a better than expected Democratic GOTV effort.Organization
- Bin Ladin is dead and GM is alive.
- Obama successfully tied Romney to George W. Bush in policies, if not syntax. This helped tremendously with Independents.
- Romney has maintained a consistent lead among Independents, in some cases by nearly10 points. Many of these Independents in swing states are suburban residents where elections are generally won or lost.
- Romney will pull north of 60% of the White vote. This will negate his severe disadvantage among minority voters.
- Republican enthusiasm outperformed Democratic enthusiasm. This is evidenced by early voting and in all likely voter polls. Along this line of reasoning groups such as younger voters, single women, and African-Americans who had higher than normal turnout in 2008 will return to a more" normal (i.e. lower) turnout which will benefit Romney.
- The Economy and Jobs remains the number one issue. Obama is losing to Romney regarding his effectiveness in dealing with these vital areas.
- Obama's unfavorability and wrong track numbers are generally higher than his favorability and right track numbers by several points; fundamental rule of politics - this is political death!
- Polling models are tilted ever so slightly to the Democrats, but turnout will show these models to be off. In an election this close being off by a few points in data modeling can and I believe will yield a very different result. Much of the poll modeling also understates the White percentage of vote buy a percentage point or two.
- ObamaCare has been a "death panel" for the President in Florida.
- Romney's "etch-a-sketch" to the political center and social moderation (I really think he is agnostic on many hot-button social issues) will help him among suburban college-educated professionals who would have a great amount of trouble voting for a genuine GOP social conservative. Obama will still win many of these voters, but by nowhere near as large a margin as he did in 2008.
- Romney was able to undo months of negative campaigning with his debate performances and has favorability ratings of about 50% - just enough.
- Bottom line - If the Obama campaign is not able to replicate its 2008 turnout model the President will lose.
But in the end this doesn't matter...
Romney 50.2%
Obama 49.8%
Margin of victory will be 0.4%
Swing States
North Carolina - 15 EVs:
The Tarheel State which is historically Republican was captured by Obama by a whisker in 2008. This was mainly driven by high African-American and college student turnout. Current head to head polling shows Romney with a small, but consistent lead.
Early Prediction - Romney
September: But some recent polling shows it now tied. Unless there is a total meltdown, I still think Romney squeaks it out here.
September Prediction - Romney
October: Looks like with Romney's October surge, that NC has been put away. Early voting numbers show that Obama's advantage of 2008 has evaporated. I think Romney wins comfortably in NC now.
October Prediction - Romney
November: Well let's start with the easiest call. Turnout as in all places will matter. Early voting shows a smaller advantage for Obama than in 2008 and a heavy Romney vote on Tuesday will swamp this.
North Carolina Final Prediction: Romney 52-48
Nevada - 6 EVs:
This state is an interesting mix with both a sizable Hispanic and Mormon population. Won easily by Obama in 2008, Nevada is a battleground once more. However, I think that the president's advantage among Hispanics will pull it out for him in the end.
Early Prediction - Obama
September: Still agree with this analysis although the polls remain fairly close. September Prediction - Obama
October: Polls remain close, now a tossup, but I think early voting numbers are enough to favor a small Obama victory. October Prediction - Obama
November: Early voting and the President's wide lead among hispanics deliver the state for Obama. The substantial Mormon and rural population will keep it closer than last time, but Clark County (Las Vegas area) will put Obama over the top. He won by 15 points in 2008 and Romney simply won't be able to make that up.
Nevada Final Prediction: Obama 53-47
Iowa - 6 EVs:
Recent polling shows this state as tied which is good news for Romney. Obama is well-organized here and this will be nip and tuck. However, Iowa is very white and this is a group that has been deserting Obama in droves since 2008. Current polling shows a neck and neck race here. Both candidates are working very hard at this one.
Early Prediction - Romney
September Obama is in better shape in Iowa now than he was a month ago and based on his momentum, I will flip Iowa to the Democrats...for now... September prediction - Obama
October: Polls have shifted this back to a tie. Romney's strong lead among white voters nationwide will just put him over the top here methinks... October Prediction - Romney
November: Polls are still showing it neck and neck. This will be about turnout and independent voters. Early voting shows an advantage for the President, but my sense is iot will be a late evening as Republican registrations are now on par with Democrats, unlike in 2008, but the counting may be late into the night. Watch the turnout in the pro-Obama Quad Cities and in conservative western Iowa. Last batch of polls show Obama gaining momentum so I am flipping it to him.
Iowa Final Prediction: Obama 51-49
Colorado - 9 EVs:
This is an eclectic state with a conservative rural and military population combined with liberal meccas like Boulder. A high Hispanic turnout should help Obama, but early polling shows a very close race. I have to flip a coin on this one.
Early Prediction - Obama
September: The coin I flipped in June is still on edge, but state polling is showing either a tie or small Obama lead so we will keep this the same as well.
September Prediction - Obama
October: Romney has moved into a very small lead here and the early voting number appear to favor him so I am switching COP back to red. This is a close one.
October Predication - Romney
November: Early voting figures (based on registered voters casting ballots) are continuing to favor Romney. As everywhere, turnout is key. If Denver and Boulder do not come out in massive numbers, Romney will win this by a whisker helped by the large number of active military and retired veterans who reside in the state.
Colorado Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Florida - 29 EVs:
This is a must-win for Romney and lends some weight to selecting Sen. Rubio for VP. Florida historically leans Republican, but Obama will be very competitive here. But I see Romney pulling it out in the end based on his strong lead among voters over age 50.
Early Prediction - Romney
September: Polls show an absolute tie in Florida. Not good news for Romney who hoped to put away this swing state early. Without a win here, his path to 270 becomes almost impossible. No longer think Romney has the advantage here as he is being hammered over Medicare and immigration. But with the state's economy in poor shape comparatively I will leave it where it was, but would not be surprised at all if it flips back to the president.
September Prediction - Romney
October: Polling now shows that the nationwide Romney surge has hit the beach in FL and is eroding Obama's chances of keeping this state blue. Feeling more confident that Romney steals this state's critical 29 electoral votes.
October Prediction - Romney
November: Romney has spent time in Florida this week which shows that he does not have Florida nailed down yet. Watch returns from the critical I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa and is turnout in hyper-conservative North Florida is high (some of these counties lean Republican 75-25). Do Hispanics stay with Obama in the Miami suburbs? This will be close, but the over 65 vote looks to be a lock for Romney (ObamaCare is not popular with this crowd) and this put him over the top. I also believe that the Jewish vote in South Florida will not be as pro-Obama as it was in 2008 due to differences over US policy toward Israel.
Final Prediction: Romney 53-47
Virginia - 13 EVs:
The Old Dominion is getting more purple than it was thanks to an influx of wealthy, educated, and socially liberal whites in the DC suburbs, but much of it remains part of the old South. Republicans won big here in 2010, but I think Obama prevails here for a second time due to a large and enthusiastic turnout in Fairfax County. This will be very closely contested.
Early Prediction - Obama
September: Polling now shows Obama expanding his lead. This is another must-win for Romney, but if things continue as they are I see him losing by at least 5 points. Obama really has solidified his lead in northern Virginia and the DC suburbs. The addition of former VA Rep and Libertarian presidential candidate Virgil Goode also drains some votes that would likely go to Romney.
September Prediction - Obama
October: As in several other swing states, Romney has taken a small lead in most polls. Obama will do well in Fairfax County and the DC suburbs, but Romney will sweep in coal country and likely among military voters in the Virginia Beach area.
October Prediction - Romney
November: This is a must win state for Romney and he has poured an incredible amount of resources into it. The President's team has done the same thing so again, this will be all about who turns out their voters. Early voting numbers suggest that Republican leaning counties are outperforming their 2008 turnout while turnout in the DC suburbs is slightly lower than 2008.If Obama outperforms in Northern VA and the DC suburbs he will win. However, I think Romney will do just well enough in these areas coupled with a strong vote elsewhere in the state (especially coal country) to win another late night squeaker - assuming that Goode of the Constitution Party does not steal more than a few votes.
Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Pennsylvania - 20 EVs:
Described by strategist James Carville as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends with Alabama in the middle, PA is a state with a split personality. Romney will win in the rural central part of the state and in coal country while Obama will rake in the urban areas. The election will be won in suburbia but with a historic Democratic lean I will place PA (for now) as an Obama state.
Early Prediction - Obama
September: Polling shows this state leaning further into Obama's camp. The fact that Romney is not campaigning or advertising heavily in PA is another indicator that he is writing this state off. Obama should win by a comfortable margin, some polls now have him in a double digit lead.
September Prediction - Obama
October: Polling has tightened again with a few showing a tie, but Obama seems to be maintaining a lead of between 4 and 6 points. If Romney has a huge turnout in rural areas he could take it (and thus the election), but I think Obama hangs on here based on the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage. Also, Romney has not committed significant resources here.
October Prediction - Obama
November: Big news here is that in the past week Romney has poured a ton of resources here late in the game. This would not be happening and he would not be personally campaigning here if something in their internal numbers did not show them with a legitimate shot here. Romney will do very well in rural areas, but I still think Obama wins PA with overwhelming urban support, but if Philly doesn't turnout like it did in 2008, this is a call I may end up missing thus causing Obama campaign manager David Axelrod to shave his legendary mustache. Calling it for the President based upon past state performance in close races (2000 and 2004) where Republicans fell just short and the Democrats nearly million person advantage among registered voters. But I think this is the place where Romney is most likely to surprise.
Final Prediction - Obama 51-49
Ohio - 18 EVs:
Another must win for Romney; no Republican has won the presidency in recent history without the Buckeye state. Again this is a battle to be waged in suburban Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati with Romney winning big in rural areas and Obama holding the cities. This will be close, but I give the edge to Romney at this point.
Early Prediction - Romney
September: Not any more. Romney is consistently down by ever widening margins especially over the past couple of weeks. Looks like the auto bailout and Ohio's comparatively good local economy is boosting the president. In some polling he is winning women by 20 points and the race is even among men. Romney needs to turn this one around immediately or he is in deep trouble.
September Prediction - Obama
October: What a difference a month makes. This is back to a coin toss. Obama is maintaining a very slight advantage in the polls, but all are within the margin of error. Ohio is indeed ground zero of this election - if Obama loses OH, he is a one term president. If he wins, Romney's path to 270 is very difficult. For now, I will keep it with Obama, but I can easily see Romney squeaking it out here. May be a long night!
October Prediction - Obama
November: Rasmussen has the only poll out this week showing Romney with a 2 point lead, but every other poll still has Obama up by a few. All are within the margin of error making this yet another tough call. Enthusiasm seems to be on Romney's side especially with a 30,000 person turnout at a Friday evening rally near Cincinnati. In the end however, I think that the successful attacks on Romney, the auto bailout, and superior organization keeps Ohio in the Obama column, but 'twill be another late evening.
Final Prediction - Obama 51-49
Michigan - 16 EVs:
Obama seemed very strong here a month ago, but recent polling shows a closer race. Romney has family ties here, but his opposition to the auto bailout has hurt him. MI has been trending Democratic in recent years and while close, I think Obama will squeak it out here. Early prediction - Obama
September: Like Ohio, the president seems to be pulling away. Another state where Romney has stopped advertising as well. looks like another state Obama does not have to worry about or dedicate a lot of resources to.
September Prediction - Obama
October: Michigan, like PA has closed. Unemployment remains high, thus Romney does have a shot here, but I am betting the auto bailout helps keep this state blue.
October Prediction - Obama
November: I concur with my last prediction, this will be close, but it is telling that neither Romney nor Ryan is visiting here over the past week. Both candidates have launched limited advertising in the past ten day, but this is just a bridge too far for Romney.
Final Prediction - Obama 53-47
Wisconsin - 10 EVs:
This state was very close in 2000 and 2004, but was won easily by Obama in 2008. The recent failure of the recall election against Gov. Walker and a strong Republican organization makes this very competitive this time around. A possible Paul Ryan VP pick makes this even more interesting. Another coin flip...
Early Prediction - Romney
September: The Ryan pick has made this state competitive, but polling in WI is showing the same trend of independents and women to Obama. Ryan may not be enough here as Romney continues to falter, in fact, I am now thinking that Obama wins this by a few.
September Prediction - Obama
October: Like other swing states, the gap has closed back to a tie. WI is getting a lot of attention as it is crucial for Romney if he loses OH. Ryan is helping here and the momentum favors Romney. I am going to move it back to red, but this is a 50/50 state.
October Prediction - Romney
November: Both campaigns are fighting tooth and nail here. Obama won WI by 14% in 2008, but it is as close as they come and is vital for Romney if he loses OH. Republicans benefit from a strong ground operation as evidenced in the successful defense of Gov, Scott Walker in last spring's recall. Democrats benefit from Wisconsin's presidential vote for Democrats since 1988. But...the 2000 and 2004 margins were Democrat victories by less then a single percentage point. Like with Iowa, the last few surveys show a bounce for the President, therefore:
Final Prediction: Obama 52 - 48
New Hampshire - 4 EVs:
In an election as potentially close as this one, the Granite State's four electoral voes may decide the winner. Historically Republican, but trending Democratic, this will be close. Romney has spent a lot of time here, but polling shows that his move to the political right may hurt him in this libertarian state. One more coin flip.
Early Prediction - Obama
September: Based on consistent polling showing an Obama advantage, I am keeping this where it is.
September Prediction - Obama
October: Polling has tightened here (like everywhere else!) Some are showing Romney in the lead, but the socially conservative nature of the national GOP simply plays very poorly in libertarian NH and should keep Obama ahead on election night - barely.
October Prediction - Obama
November: This is a very tough call. Polling tjhis week is showing a tie. However, if Romney is indeed leading among independents by several points, this may be the same in NH. Also, Romney is wrapping up his campaign with two stops here in the last three days. On the other hand Obama has carried a reservoir of good will in this state with a relatively low unemployment rate and NH voters are more liberal on social issues than the national GOP.. I think Romney makes it by the skin of his teeth.
Final Prediction: Romney 51-49
Wildcards:
These are the "stretch goal" states that either side which may be contestable...
in a perfect storm (like we saw in 2008)! It is highly unlikely that any of these are seriously contested on Tuesday, but let's have some numbers fun anyway.
Minnesota: Obama 53-47
Arizona: Romney 54-46
Indiana: Romney 56-44
New Jersey: Obama 55-45
Georgia: Romney 55-45
Oregon: Obama 53-47
Missouri: Romney 55-45
New Mexico: Obama 54-46
The two polls out this weekend showing both Minnesota and Michigan tied are outliers...I think!
Five Best Romney States
- Utah 72%
- Oklahoma 70%
- Idaho 69%
- Arkansas 64%
- Wyoming 63%
- Vermont 67%
- Hawaii 64%
- New York 62%
- Rhode Island 61%
- Maryland 61%
Based on these predictions, this is how the map will look...
Democrats retain control of the Senate, perhaps losing one seat.
The House remains Republican with maybe a 2-4 seat shift towards the Democrats.
Bottom line - this is an extremely tough call. Some very notable pundits are predicting a Romney victory with over 300 EVs. If the late Romney strategy in Pennsylvania catches the Obama team napping it will result in him being elected.
If I am wrong on Iowa or Wisconsin (or Ohio) Romney wins as well. On the other hand if either Florida or Virgina goes to Obama it will be an early evening/
48 hours to go - I will be getting little sleep this week.
BTW, I reserve the right to make revisions should anything happen inthe next 24 hours to change things...
Onwards!
The Prof
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