US 2018 Senate Election Civics Lesson

In the 2018 midterm election Democrats received more total national votes than the Republicans in Senatorial contests by a margin of 47.9 million to 34.3 million. Thus the question has come up as to how the GOP is still controlling the Senate after the 2018 midterm.

Keep this in mind that we are a constitutional democratic republic and the system was set up to work in such a way to protect state rights. In a national parliamentary system the Democrats would control more legislative seats. Consider these points.

• Under our federal system states elect two Senators regardless of the state's population. Thus CA and NY will have many more potential votes than does WY or VT for each Senate election thus a big win for a particular party in large states can run up the national total.

• Second, the Democrats had many more incumbent seats in play last night and most actually won by fairly wide margins - the media was focused on a few close races. Bear in mind that Warren's win in Massachusetts gave the Democrats a margin of over 750k votes while Scott's apparent win in Florida was by less than 15k votes. This yields a a net plurality of over 700k votes for the Democratic vote total, but one senator is elected from each party. 

• Lastly, under the California open primary rules, two Democrats ran against each other netting over 7 million total Democratic votes and zero Republican senatorial votes in CA. 

Onwards!

The Prof

2018 Massachusetts Races - Final Predictions

Election Day 2018 is tomorrow, so some quick predictions and analysis of a fairly predictable race (more of a stroll in fact) here in the Bay State.

Governor

Incumbent governor Charlie Baker is leading Jay Gonzalez by a more than comfortable 43 points in the last poll. Baker has consistently outperform his underfunded and largely unknown opponent. Gonzalez is suffering from a lack of institutional party support as well as Baker plays ball well with the Democratic legislature. Baker has successfully parleyed attempts to tie him the Donald Trump - in fact he may be the most anti-Trump Republican holding major office.

Gonzalez should win (albeit by modest margins) in Boston and the major urban areas and the liberal 5 College region in the Pioneer Valley, Expect Baker to rack up large victories in the suburbs - even the left leaning Route 2 corridor west of Boston. Across the 495 belt, South Shore, Essex and Worcester County Baker wins by landslide totals. He is not going to win by 43 points, but I expect and easy double digit win for the incumbent governor.

Prediction: Baker wins 62 - 38


US Senate

Many Baker voters will split their tickets and also cast a vote for incumbent senator Elizabeth Warren. GOP candidate Geoffe Dheil who has tied himself to the national GOP will suffer due to Trump's extreme unpopularity in Massachusetts.

Prediction: Warren wins 58-42


Other Races:

• Democrats win all other state constitutional offices easily, all by greater than 20 points.

• Democrats win all contested US House races easily, all by more than 20 points. 

• Ballot questions 2 and 3 win in a landslide, Question 1 on nurse staffing ratios loses by 5 points.

• In national races, the Democrats capture the House by about 20 seats and the GOP holds the Senate and gains 1 seat.

Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts 2018 Primary Analysis

A few thoughts on this month's primary...

7th District Results
Wow, Mea Maxima Culpa!

The 7th District race between Michael Capuano and Ayanna Pressley that I was convinced would be won by the veteran congressman turned the political world on its head with Pressley's 59-41 win in the September 4 primary. Conventional (and Professor Brad's) wisdom was to side with the well-financed and politically savvy incumbent...but the voters of the majority-minority 7th District has other ideas. Pressley campaigned and distinguished herself on her story and background as there were few policy differences between the two candidates. This resonated with the activist base and generated very high minority turnout. Capuano barely won in his native city of Somerville and was thrashed elsewhere.

Certainly old political norms are breaking down and a new political class appears to be rising, at least in regions with high minority populations. This is happening nationwide as well with female and minority candidates being nominated in Democratic primaries in far greater numbers than in past years. A record 43% of 2018 House Democratic nominees nationwide are women.

However, Secretary of State Galvin easily disposed of his younger and more liberal challenger so it remains to be seen if this will occur statewide.

3rd District Results

In this ten person primary, it came down to a recount between the top two candidates where Lori Trahan squeezed out a 143 vote margin over Dan Koh - out of 88,00 votes cast in the primary. Winning a primary with 21% of the vote in our "first past the post" system has some calling for reform such as ranked choice voting which would have voters indicate their second choice in such a crowded primary and allocate those votes form the bottom finishing candidates to those who finished in the top echelon until one candidate gets over 50% of the vote based upon the raw vote combined with the second choice votes. Maine already has a such a system and this happening in Massachusetts may result in a greater push for it here.

Democratic Governor

No surprise, Jay Gonzalez easily defeated Bob Massie. Organization and money mattered here. Notably about 20% of Democratic ballots statewide had blank votes on the governor's race - perhaps an indication of low enthusiasm for these candidates.

Republican Governor

As expected Incumbent Charlie Baker defeated his challenger, Scott Lively. What was unusual was that Lively with no money or organization won 35% of the vote against the most popular governor in the nation. This indicates that a significant number of conservative GOP voters cast a protest against Baker's political moderation and collaborative style. In fact new polling (to be covered in my next post) shows Baker has higher favorability among Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. This will help him in the general election, but I expect many Lively voters to blank the governor's race in November.

Republican Senate

State Representative Geoff Diehl easily beat his two opponents with over 50% of the vote. He had money, name recognition, and importantly experience running campaigns unlike his opponents.

Now that the primary is over the real fireworks begin!

Onwards!

The Prof

2018 Massachusetts Primaries

Hi all,

In the midst of the summer doldrums, but wait...Massachusetts Primary Day 2018 is almost here!! There are some spirited races in the Bay State and I will give a quick rundown on them.

Given that the Primary is the day after Labor Day, turnout statewide will not be impressive. This bodes well for incumbents and those with name recognition. Media coverage during the summer is not what it is during the fall election campaign thus some of these open races are more difficult to call than others.

Massachusetts Governor

Republican

Governor Baker has a primary challenger in Scott Lively, a Springfield pastor who hails from the deeply socially conservative wing of the GOP. Lively surprised somewhat in the GOP convention where he garnered the support of 27% of the GOP delegates. Lively has tied himself very closely to both President Trump and a very conservative social agenda (much of it anti LGBT). There are a hard core of conservatives in Massachusetts who view Baker as a liberal/traitor to the cause as he is socially moderate, has publicly criticized the President, and works cooperatively with the Democratic state legislature.

However, Baker will win the primary very easily. Independents who cross into the GOP primary will support the more moderate Baker. His administration has presided over a booming state economy. Lively has little money for a real campaign and is seen as a radical gadfly by most political analysts. Baker is the most popular governor in the nation if the polling is to be believed and is flush with campaign funds. Baker will not win the hardcore "Trumpers" due to his heresy, but should take around 75% of the primary vote on September 4.

Democrats

With Setti Warren dropping out of the race this past spring there are two candidates; Jay Gonzalez who worked in the Patrick Administration and Bob Massie and entrepreneur and activist. The Democratic convention endorsed Gonzales, but Massie received enough support to be a credible candidate.

There has been no real polling on this very low profile race. My sense is that Gonzalez probably has the momentum, but that is based really on the party endorsement and his name recognition. Not really ready to call numbers on this one, but I will anyway - Gonzalez wins 60-40. However, either candidate has a very uphill battle to beat Charlie Baker in November.

Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth

There is a surprisingly heated Democratic primary between long-time incumbent William Galvin and Boston City Council member Josh Zakim. Zakin won the endorsement of the State Democratic Convention over Galvin 55% to 45%. This is a classic old blood versus new blood contest. Galvin is running as a trusted competent elections official. Zakim, who is much younger, and part of the the progressive Left has Galvin on the defensive for the first time in many years.

If there is high urban and youth turnout in the primary, it will be a late evening. However, with this being a low-profile race (except for political junkies), it is likely that Galvin turns out the old machine one more time and wins albeit with the biggest scare of his political life.


US Senate

Three Republicans; State Representative Geoff Diehl, Businessman John Kingston, and former Romney administration undersecretary Beth Lindstrom are vying to run against Democrat Elizabeth Warren in November. As name recognition among all candidate is fairly low, money and organization will be the key to victory. Thus my money is on Diehl. He was the co-chair of Trump's 2016 campaign in Massachusetts and is well wired in GOP circles. Additionally, as a sitting state rep he has more experience in running and winning electoral races than his two opponents. Lindstrom has been running a good deal of advertising and making multiple media appearances and may surprise but I think Diehl wins by a 5 to 10 point margin in this three way race. News flash - Warren will win reelection convincingly no matter who she faces, although I think Linstrom would keep it a bit closer than Diehl.

Third Congressional District

There are currently ten Democratic candidates running for the Merrimack Valley and northwest suburban seat of retiring representative Niki Tsongas. I have absolutely no idea who will win, even though The Prof resides in the district. Polling shows that over half of the voters are undecided or disinterested. Organization and GOTV are the keys of victory in any election - especially in a crowded primary such as this. I suppose whomever garners more than 20% of the vote will win. Very uncharacteristically I will take a pass on trying to call this one. I will predict that the winner of the primary will be the easy winner in November as the GOP is toxic at the national level in this district and indeed throughout Massachusetts.

Seventh Congressional District

This is a very racially and economically diverse district. Representing much of Boston, Cambridge, and Somerville, long term Democratic incumbent Representative Mike Capuano is facing the first real political contest since he won initially won election in 1998. Boston City Councillor Ayanna Pressley is running a strong challenge with a promise to be more confrontational with the Trump Administration which is exciting progressives. In terms of public policy there is very little ideological difference between the two. The issue that Pressley is running on is greater political activism and the appeal of having a minority representing the majority-minority Seventh District. Capuano, although a progressive, is a deal maker and works across the aisle.

The last two polls have Capuano holding a lead of between 9 and 13 points. However Pressley is winning the polling in minority areas of the district. As said before - turnout and organization will determine the winner of this contest. Based on his organization and name recognition (i.e the power of incumbency) Capuano should win this by greater than ten points. Minority turnout will be low given this is a primary and Capuano is campaigning hard as he is well aware of the demise of the number four House Democrat in New York a couple of months ago to a very progressive challenger.

Once the primary is concluded, we will look at the 2018 fall campaign with great interest. Onwards!

The Prof

Seven Months Out - Baker and Warren both poised to win easily this November

Hello again,

Some new polling from WBUR on the 2018 race for Governor and Senator in Massachusetts - and little has changed in the past several months. Both Governor Baker and Senator Warren are in strong positions for reelection.

Name recognition and favorablity are key to winning a statewide election and both Baker and Warren have considerable advantages over their largely unknown rivals. In head to head match-ups, both candidates have significant double digit leads.

Baker's Prospects

It remains early, but I would not be surprised if the Massachusetts Democratic Party does not work that hard to oppose Governor Baker's reelection - he is moderate to liberal on the social wedge issues that drives the "resistance" to the national GOP. I don't expect him to win by the 30 or so points that he is currently ahead by in the WBUR poll against his potential rivals - but he is likely to win by a still comfortable 5 to 10 point margin. 

The WBUR poll finds that Baker is seen as doing relatively well on the major state issues with some voter angst continuing around the MBTA, health costs and the cost of housing. However, the negatives are not high enough (at this point) to seriously threaten his popularity and likely reelection. 

He has successfully kept his distance from President Trump and voters seem to be well aware of that. Opposition to President Trump will certainly help whomever the Democratic nominee is, but unless Baker is faced by an unforeseen crisis that is handled poorly he will be largely inoculated against the coming blue wave which will greatly erode the GOP's representation in both state capitols and Washington DC. Credit both his bipartisanship and likable easygoing manner that contrasts well against the more bombastic members of the GOP.

Senator Warren

Elizabeth Warren, while divisive nationally, remains a very strong favorite for reelection. Her potential opposition is largely unknown and whomever is nominated will be severely underfunded. Warren has a burgeoning war chest and will be able to raise money from a national network of doners. She may suffer a bit as a 2020 presidential run (despite a recent denial) may be pending and would begin next year.

State Rep Geoff Diehl is likely to be her opponent. As he chaired Trump's 2016 campaign in the Bay State, I would be surprised if he breaks 40% of the vote. I think there will be a lot of split ticket voting for Baker and Warren.

2018 State Ballot Measures

There continues to be strong support for the four proposed ballot measures.

• Nearly 80% support raising the state's minimum wage to $15 per hour.
• Recent polling shows large majorities in favor of both enacting a millionaire's surtax and reducing the state sales tax from 6.5% to 5%. (interesting how the public seems to support cutting their own taxes and raising other people's taxes - BL)
• A strong majority support enacting mandatory paid family leave.

It is too early to predict that these ballot measure will all pass as there will be a significant media campaign waged by their opponents and admittedly, most voters are still not focused on the upcoming election and possible consequences of these ballot questions. In particular, there will be a major campaign waged against reducing the sales tax as many powerful interests (teachers, state employees, public health advocates, etc) rely on those revenues.


Congressional Massachusetts Races

Massachusetts politics are different from national politics - we are essentially a one party state in most circumstances, but have a penchant to electing liberal Republicans to the governor's office on occasion. But as the Bluest State expect the all Democratic Massachusetts delegation in the House to win overwhelmingly (several of the incumbents will run unopposed) and the open Third District Congressional Seat held by the retiring Nicki Tsongas will be won by whichever Democrat who wins the party primary this September. With the national GOP held in low regard by most voters it will be the labor of Sisyphus for any Republican Congressional candidate to gain any traction here.

More as the year winds on...

Onwards!

The Prof

Poll Shows Governor Baker Ahead and Senator Warren Cruising to Reelection in 2018

A June 27 WBUR poll is further evidence that incumbent governor Charlie Baker and Senator Elizabeth Warren are in commanding positions for reelection in November 2018. Both Baker and Warren have good favorability ratings and are well known to their constituents. President Trump's favorability continues to lag badly - he will be tied to Baker by the Democrats as it may be the only way to close the gap.

Full poll results can be accessed here.
WBUR June 2017 Poll


Topline












As one can see, name recognition is tied to having positive favorabilty (except in the case of Trump). Perhaps a challenger's biggest barrier to election is the inability to be a household name or at least as well known as the incumbent.

Head to Head

The head to head match-ups show Baker winning convincing (by over 20 points) against all announced challengers, but with a closer race (48-36) against as of yet undeclared candidate Maura Healey. As the sitting Attorney General she has already won statewide office and is relatively well known.

Senator Warren collects 60% plus of the vote in a hypothetical contest with either of her very unknown and pro-Trump Republican challengers. I would not expect to see that change as time goes on.

Crosstabs

The poll's crosstabs reveal a few interesting tidbits:

• President Trump is viewed very unfavorably by all groups, but he breaks even with high school educated white males over 50 years of age in southeastern Massachusetts. Nationwide as in Massachusetts, this reflects his base of support.
• The gender gap is apparent.
• Senator Warren has overwhelming support among women, but split favorable/unfavorable with men. 
• In a head to ahead against Baker, Maura Healey is even with women, but loses badly with men.
• Interestingly, men and women have very similar favorability for Baker. He seems to transcend the gender gap at least in personal favorability.
• People under age 29 have the highest rates of not having heard of a particular candidate.
• Democrats fare far better among those with graduate degrees.
• Regionally, Republicans do best in Southeastern Massachusetts; Democrats do relatively well inside the Rt 128 belt. No surprises.

Two ballot questions are also polled. The proposed "millionaires" surtax on income enjoys 81% support while a measure to roll back the state sales tax from 6.25% to 4.5% has the support of 62% of respondents.

The surtax question will win by a very large margin, but probably less than 80% - the poll figure seems just too out of the norm.

It is likely that the sales tax fight will be very close, especially since Massachusetts may be in a revenue shortfall. It is one of those questions that conceptually seems good, but its effects on education and state services may give many pause. Additionally, there will be massive organized opposition to this proposal and the opponents will outspend proponents.

There will be more polls as time goes on. Unless there is a major event that takes precedence, it is likely the results that we see today will be predictive in the case of Warren's reelection. I am hesitant to give Baker the same rating simply because he is a Republican in this overwhelmingly liberal state. I do think he will win, but not by the landslide that Warren will win by.

Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts Governor's Race 2018 - An Early Look

It's 18 months in the future, but this is a good opportunity to time travel and assess the 2018 Massachusetts Gubernatorial election. The battle lines are forming and Governor Baker, although very popular at this time, is no shoe-in for reelection.

Charlie Baker won a very close contest (by just over one percentage point) against Attorney General Martha Coakley in 2014. However, his moderate and managerial approach has won the Republican accolades from many Independents and grudging respect from his opponents. He has parlayed this into favorably ratings that most elected officials can only hope for. An April 2017 Morning Consult poll has Baker's overall favorability at a stratospheric 75%. Other recent polls have showed him at 70%. This should make him nearly untouchable even this far out from an election. However, Baker is a Republican in heavily Democratic Massachusetts. This coupled with the deep animosity toward President Trump's (his approval in Massachusetts is currently under 30%) makes 2018 a race where Baker has an advantage, but also vulnerability if things go south.

To negate this, Baker has very publicly separated himself from the president, both before and after his election. Baker's challenge will be maintaining that distance while maintaining his own brand of Yankee Republicanism. His socially liberal stances have disarmed some of the activist community, but his fiscal moderation is under attack from the political left who desire a more active state government role and progressive tax structure.

The Democrats will use Trump's unpopularity to tie Bake to the administration in Washington whenever possible. Additionally, they will use politically popular initiatives such as the proposed millionaire's tax (which will be on the ballot and is very likely to pass in 2018) and raising the state's minimum wage to motivate the progressive wing of the party to turn out.

As of now, Baker has three declared opponents:

• Jay Gonzalez, former State Secretary of Administration and Finance
• Bob Massie, nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 1994 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012
• Setti Warren, Mayor of Newton and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012

All three are from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. I expect other people to get into the race, especially if the state's economy turns negative. As of now, Baker's popularity and fundraising prowess are keeping other prominent Democrats out of the race, although I suspect Attorney General Maura Healey may rethink her decision not to run if Baker appears vulnerable. Of the three declared candidates, I see Warren as having the best chance of being nominated as he is young, polished, and will do well within the minority community and suburban liberals.

Baker's strategy will be to use his "aw shucks" personality, active managerial approach, and not to pick any fights on social issues although the right wing of his base is deeply suspicious of him for being to moderate and has been given the dreaded RINO (Republican in Name Only) moniker by the more vocal folks on the right. He will face populist pressure on healthcare and taxes and will need to walk a tightrope on these issues.

To win re-election, Baker needs several things to coalesce:

1. Keep the lion share of Independents, a group he overwhelmingly won in 2014.
2. Stay competitive in traditionally Democratic blue collar communities, many of which he won by narrow margins. He will need to win about 25% of registered Democrats.
3. Keep the Democratic victories in the cities and wealthy suburbs tight enough not to be overwhelmed on election night.
4. Keep the GOP right wing from fielding a primary opponent which will create party division and drain resources. He needs to win 90% plus of registered Republicans.
5. Most importantly, manage the state's economy (attract business, fix issues with healthcare, the MBTA, DHHS, etc.) to the extent that he can and avoid a fiscal crisis that will undermine his managerial assets.
6. Stay on cool (if not cold) relations with President Trump. If the president visits the state, Baker would be well advised not to be photographed with Trump - this will be used in attack ads from the Democrats.

Advice for the Democrats:

1. Tie Baker to President Trump at every opportunity. Rinse and repeat.
2. Actuate the minority community to vote in greater numbers. These are reliably Democratic voters, but they turn out at relatively low rates.
3. Play the populist game. Higher taxes on the wealthy and more state spending and services. However, this needs to be presented in a way that can't be portrayed as just tax and spend policies. Outline these proposals in a fiscally responsible way and couch them as investments and tax fairness.
4. Tie Baker to Trump, did I say that yet?

Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states in the union, but has a tradition of not always giving complete control to one political party. Baker has been wise to promote himself as a check on the Democratic legislature whist working with the Democratic leadership at the same time on key issues. In an odd way, Massachusetts politics are relatively non-polarized when compared to the other areas of the nation. Voters seem to appreciate the parties minimizing their squabbling and getting things accomplished without excessive rancor and gridlock.

As today, I would give Baker about a 60% chance of retaining his seat in 2018, but as Larry Sabato says; He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass.

Onwards!

The Prof