Markey-Gomez predictions and prenalysis

Hi all,

As a student and aficionado of politics, I must say that the Massachusetts US Senate race between Ed Markey and Gabriele Gomez may be the least interesting "race" that I have ever followed.  The outcome has never been in doubt and the public enthusiasm for a June special election has been very low.

However, this race is a microcosm as to why Democrats continue to dominate all Massachusetts federally elective offices and will so for the foreseeable future.

First of all, my predictions and below the reasons why.

Markey 57%
Gomez  43%

• Turnout statewide will be under 50%, my guess is that it is closer to 35%.
• Turnout will be highest between the 128 and 495 belts. This area is wealthy and highly educated which are indicators for propensity to vote.  In this case, it will be largely Democratic votes.
• Markey will win all of the major urban areas in Massachusetts by wide margins.
• Markey will easily win Middlesex County, the largest county in Massachusetts.
• Markey will break 75% of the vote in many Pioneer Valley and Berkshire County communities.  In Cambridge, Amherst, and tiny Sunderland Markey will win over 80%
• Gomez may lose every county in the state.  If he is able to win anywhere, it would be in Plymouth and/or Worcester Counties.
• Gomez will handily win traditional GOP strongholds like Lynnfield, Boxford, and Wrentham.  He will win a number of communities in the Merrimack Valley,  Worcester County, and the South Shore.  However, it will simply not be enough to make it close.
• The news media will have the race called for Markey by 9:00pm.

Why will this election, an election that features a somewhat lackluster 37-year House veteran whose residency is in some question, easily defeat young and energetic former Navy SEAL?

It is a special election and the public is tuned out

This is the third election for a senate seat in Massachusetts in three years and the public is not engaged.  An election the week before the July 4 holiday is not going to attract many voters and those who do turn out will be the hardcore Democrats and Republicans.  Some very conservative Republicans may in fact stay home on election day as Gomez has embraced many moderate and even liberal policy stances.  Moderates and Independents are not engaged and Gomez needs high turnout in these groups to have a chance.

Money - having it helps!

Markey has absolutely swamped Gomez with negative advertising and it has worked beautifully.  Tying Gomez to the national GOP (more on this shortly) is a winning strategy and has defined the relatively unknown Gomez negatively for many Massachusetts voters.  Negative advertising is also designed to spark turn out of the base - in this case liberal Democrats, and to depress turnout among moderate and independent voters.

Gomez has not received critical financial support from the national GOP who appear to have written this race off early.  Without financial resources, he has been at a disadvantage from the start.

Candidate Quality

Gomez as a first time candidate simply has not performed well or connected with voters.  The magic (and conditions) that elected Scott Brown in 2010 are absent this time and Gomez has lacked the political skills, experience campaigning, and support system that  a more seasoned candidate may have possessed.

In the debates (all of which had low viewership), Gomez has not done badly, but has yet to score any knockout blows.  He needed to give more of a reason for people to support him apart from "my opponent has been in Congress for 37 years". Markey has played a perfect "run out the clock" game, has portrayed Gomez as a Tea Party extremist, and has not made any major errors.

Markey makes up in political skill that he lack in charisma.  His very liberal views on economic and social issues in an low-turnout election dominated by party activists, play very well.  He will be a reliable vote for President Obama's agenda and the Obama remains popular in Massachusetts. 

Organization
The 66 year-old Markey has been able to secure unified Democratic support ans was anointed early by the Democratic power structure.  A unified party with a powerful organization is almost impossible to beat.

In 2010, the state Democratic Party was caught napping by Scott Brown.  This will not happen again.  The Democratic base has been actuated and organized to turn out for Markey.  Elizabeth Warren's election was based on organization and GOTV.  Markey will benefit greatly from this.

Markey also has had Democratic heavy hitters such as President Obama, Joe Biden, and Bill Clinton come to Massachusetts to campaign for him.  Boston Mayor Menino has endorsed him and the mayor's organization will turn out enough votes so that Markey wins Boston by tens of thousands of votes.

Gomez has neither the organization nor the enthusiasm that Scott Brown was able to generate.  His campaign appears to be a half-hearted effort demonstrated by a lack of lawn-signs, TV advertising, and crowds.  My sense is that the Republican base has never really warmed up to Gomez either.  This translates into fewer volunteers for the GOTV effort.

The Scary National GOP

Perhaps the biggest reason that Ed Markey will win convincingly on Tuesday, Gomez has been painted rather successfully as a Republican in the mold of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Markey has tied Gomez to extremely conservative position on abortion (this actuates female voters in Massachusetts like nothing else).

The Republican "brand" in socially liberal Massachusetts is a killer for almost any candidate running for a national office.  It is the main reason that Scott Brown, while personally popular, was handily defeated by Elizabeth Warren.  Although Gomez has taken many moderate positions that differ from the base GOP, Markey has tied him to the national GOP and Gomez's negatives have crept up as a result.  The unknown Gomez failed to define himself and was instead defined as a potential senate vote "against Choice" and "for the national Republican agenda".  This is political death for candidates in the Bay State.

Another Prediction - for the future...

I cannot resist a little crystal ball gazing into the future of this senate seat.  I see Ed Markey as a placeholder for somebody else.  This is my scenario:

Markey runs and again wins the seat in 2014.  His term will be up in 2020, but he does not finish the term.  Instead he resigns, perhaps in 2016, opening up the Democratic nomination and senate seat for a member of a Massachusetts political dynasty...the Kennedys!

4th District Congressman Joe Kennedy is in his first term is in a House seat that he can have for as long as he wants.  However, I see him as an ambitious young man who will run for and easily win the senate seat if and when Markey vacates it.  He was discussed as a candidate for this special election, but wisely decided not to run as he was newly elected to the House in 2012.  By 2016, he will have a proven track record and a well-oiled machine for a statewide candidacy.  In addition, running in 2016 with a Democratic presidential candidate (Hillary?) who will pull in many groups that do not vote in off-year elections will almost guarantee an electoral route and a path to a long senate career.

However as the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato (my political guru) often says "Those who live by the crystal ball end up eating ground glass..."

Onwards!


The Prof

Mass Senate Race Update - primary results

In the midst of finals and grading, but need to write about the Massachusetts special Senate election that may be a bit more interesting then previously thought.

Last week, Democratic Edward Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez won their parties respective April 30 primary elections.  Primary turnout was quite low with about 15% of eligible voters participating.

Markey bested Lunch 57-43, about what I predicted in March.  The Democratic activist base turned out heavily for Markey in the Boston suburbs (many went 80-20 for Markey), academic towns (about 90-10 Markey, the Happy Valley and Cambridge remain red)), and increasingly liberal Western Mass.

Lynch was able to win much of his congressional district south of Boston and the more conservative town in the Merrimack Valley, and parts of Worcester County.  However, his labor union support simply was overwhelmed by the Democratic machine which lined up behind Markey early in the campaign.

In the below Boston Globe map, the communities that Markey won are in blue and the communities that Lynch won are in green.One can see the distribution of votes in each town and when I eyeball this map the first thing that jumps out to me is that Lynch won many of communities that typically will vote Republican in a general election.  I am sure that the Republican powers that be will be looking to pry many of these conservative lunch-bucket Democrats away from Markey for the June 25 election.  Markey's task will be to hold on to these Democrats and get labor on board.

The surprise in this race was newcomer Gabriel Gomez's victory against two established GOP candidates.  Gomez benefited from having both ample funds and quiet support from many of the GOP powers that be (as they are) in Massachusetts.  He ended up with 51% vs Sullivan's 37%, and Winslow's dismal 13% showing.

My sense on this race is that pragmatism won out over ideology.  The Massachusetts GOP did catch lightening in a bottle in 2010 (this race is NOT 2010 revisited by the way - very different candidates and conditions) and may be thinking that going with a fresh faced moderate businessman and  former Navy SEAL is a good contrast against Markey and his 37 years serving in Washington DC.  A more ideological candidate like Sullivan would have made it easier for Markey to paint him as a captive of the national GOP which has a brand image somewhere below fly-by-night  used car dealers.  On the other hand, as Gomez has never held elective office he may not be ready for debates and the rough and tumble of a closely watched US Senate race.

Many on the GOP right (read Tea Party) are unhappy with Gomez as he is socially moderate to liberal and did indeed write a letter to Gov. Patrick asking to be appointed to the position.  Their support is important, but in a perverse way, it may help Gomez not to be identified with hardcore social conservatism in blue Massachusetts.

There are a couple of polls out already on this race which indicate that it may not be quite the Democratic cakewalk that many thought.  I still think Markey wins a relatively solid victory, but will save my thoughts on that for the next posting in a few days once I have had a chance to digest more of the data and how the campaign is shaping up.

Onwards!


The Prof