Stop press!
Tim Cahill's campaign manager and another senior advisor have resigned over the past 24 hours. Campaign consultant Tom Weaver resigned citing that Cahill could not realistically win and was aiding Governor Patrick by staying in the race.
This may well result in further bleeding of both voters and fundraising potential for Cahill. I think he will stay in the race, but will diminish as a factor. The recent polling suggests that Cahill's voters, if pushed are splitting slightly in Baker's favor so at least the conventional wisdom would suggest this would be a plus for Baker.
We shall see...stay tuned.
The Prof
Friday, September 24, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Fearless Predictions!
46 days to e-day and after gazing into my crystal ball...it must be noted that University of Virginia's Larry Sabato says that those who live by the crystal ball end up eating ground glass. Nonetheless, my initial predictions for the statewide and congressional offices are going up.
Tuesday's Primary turnout was a little over 14% which was quite low by Massachusetts standards. The lack of a contested gubernatorial race for either party likely depressed voter interest and intensity. However, turnout was higher in areas like the 10th Congressional District where there were spirited primaries for both parties.
*Note on the predictions for the below races - the likely victorious candidate's party will be indicated by Republican Red or Democratic Blue.
1st District - This liberal Western Massachusetts district will send John Olver back for another term.
2nd District - Democrat Richard Neal will defeat newcomer Tom Wesley, but it may be a closer race than usual for the longtime incumbent
Tuesday's Primary turnout was a little over 14% which was quite low by Massachusetts standards. The lack of a contested gubernatorial race for either party likely depressed voter interest and intensity. However, turnout was higher in areas like the 10th Congressional District where there were spirited primaries for both parties.
*Note on the predictions for the below races - the likely victorious candidate's party will be indicated by Republican Red or Democratic Blue.
State Constitutional Offices
Governor - I will write more on this in the next few days, but suffice to say the latest Rasmussen poll published today indicate that it is neck and neck between Baker and Patrick (Patrick is up by 4 points, well within the margin of error) and that Cahill's support is beginning to fade. However, I still have to give Deval the edge as he has consistently led in pre-election polling, but this can go either way and will be fought bitterly down to the wire.
Prediction - 53% chance of a Patrick victory (Cahill is officially at 0% viability now)Treasurer - This race lines up Shrewsbury Rep Karyn Polito against long-time Democratic party activist Steve Grossman. Grossman will have a considerable financial edge, but Polito is an attractive outsider in what is gearing up to be an outsider year.
Prediction 55% chance of a Polito victory
Secretary of State - Long-time incumbent William Galvin should have little difficulty dispatching Woburn Republican William Campbell.
State Auditor - Suzanne Bump dispatched Guy Glodis rather easily in the Democratic Primary drawing upon the liberals who typically dominate these affairs. She won by large margins in the "Happy Valley" and leafy Boston suburbs and by decent margins in most communities outside of Worcester County. Glodis did win many of the communities in his Worcester County base, but underperformed on his own "turf" and only won his hometown of Worcester by a dozen points.
She will face off against Republican Mary Z. Connaughton on November 2. I see this being a slight advantage for the Republican with her outsider status (Bump has a long history on Beacon Hill). I also think that some disgruntled Glodis supporters in Central Mass may throw Connaughton their vote.
Prediction: 60% chance of a Connaughton victory
Congressional Seats
1st District - This liberal Western Massachusetts district will send John Olver back for another term.
2nd District - Democrat Richard Neal will defeat newcomer Tom Wesley, but it may be a closer race than usual for the longtime incumbent
3rd District - Incumbent Jim McGovern will beat Marty Lamb (a Tea Party favorite), but like Neal he will have to work at it. Without his base of Worcester and Fall River securely in his pocket, McGovern would have a real fight on his hands.
4th district - Barney Frank, longtime bane of conservatives will beat newcomer Sean Bielet, but may be held under 60% of the vote for the first time since 1982 when he was first elected.
5th District (The Prof's home district) -This could be a competitive race. Incumbent Niki Tsongas has the edge, but the Merrimack and Nashoba Valleys are conservative (by Massachusetts standards) regions. This may provide hope for Republican Jon Golnick who will have some national party backing.
Prediction: 65% chance of a Tsongas victory
6th District (The Prof's former home district) - like the 5th, Essex County is one of the more "conservative" regions of the commonwealth. Incumbent John Tierny has not had a serious race for some time, but will have one this year against Bill Hudack.
Prediction: 60% chance of a Tierney victory
7th District - The Dean of the Delegation, Ed Markey will have no problem winning re-election against Gerry Dembrowski.
8th District - Mike Capuano is unopposed.
9th District - Steven Lynch survived a primary challenge from the Left and will defeat Vernon Harrison.
10th District -This is where the fireworks will be! This wide-open district (incumbent William Dellahunt is retiring) will be a true barn burner. Republican State Rep Jeff Perry of Sandwich brings a populist conservative message and some personal baggage that is already being raised as a campaign issue by Democratic nominee Norfolk County DA William Keating. Republican and Democratic turn out was almost even in the primary which tells me that South Shore and Cape Republicans are highly energized and the national Republican Party will pour money into this race to try and steal a Massachusetts seat. It just may work too..
Prediction: 51% chance of a Perry victory. (This is really a toss-up, but felt like using red font)
Onwards to November!
The Prof
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Massachusetts 2010 Primary Results
PlaceHolder posting... to be updated shortly...
Primary results will be in this evening along with my take on how the night unfolded. Additionally, I will go out on a wire and make some predictions for many of the "down the ballot races" in November.
Vote early and often (just kidding - often is all that counts)
The Prof
Primary results will be in this evening along with my take on how the night unfolded. Additionally, I will go out on a wire and make some predictions for many of the "down the ballot races" in November.
Vote early and often (just kidding - often is all that counts)
The Prof
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Debate #1 - grades
And it's a wrap on the first gubernatorial debate!
First off, John Keller gets an A for moderating and keeping the contestants under a modicum of control.
The debate ranged from carefully planned and delivered sound bytes to a wideranging and spirited discussion. No major mistakes were evident and all four candidates were prepared.
Deval Patrick ended up with a B plus bordering on A minus. He is an experienced debater and for the most part was in command of the facts. He was able to avoid many (but not all) of Charlie's jabs. He clearly was talking up accomplishments (as he sees it) of his administration. He was under attack from the Left courtesy of Jill Stein and constantly attempted to remain the "reasonable" one in the room. Patrick is very skilled at this and acquited himself well. He may be losing some of the more left-wing Democrats to Stein, but most will come home by November.
Charlie Baker positioned himself as the only major candidate not currently on Beacon Hill. He took heat from all the others on his tenure at Harvard-Pilgrim and rising health insurance premium costs along with his ties to the Big Dig. However, he was able to parry those for the most part and tried to keep the debate framed as a race between him and Patrick whilst trying to either ignore Cahill or tie him to the power machine of Beacon Hill. He fired numerous jabs at Patrick and showed more spirit than I had anticipated. Solid B Plus.
Tim Cahill had me thinking that he was trying to channel Ronald Reagan on fiscal policy and certainly positioned himself as Mr. Conservative. How successful he was at this remains to be seen. He was not as aggressive as Baker or Patrick and directed more of his fire at Baker as they are going after the same type of voters. Overall he may have captured some of the more disillusioned voters, but I am not sure that he catapulted himself as a truly viable candidate. The Prof gives him a gentleman's B minus (almost a C plus, but I am in a good mood) for committing no major gaffes, but it also reflects a lack of aggressiveness and the jury remains out on whether or not he really wants the job.
Jill Stein gets a well deserved A minus, not due to any ideological lean (The Prof is oh so boringly non-partisan in this blog) but due to command of issues (Green Energy being overstated a bit after an hour) and the passion of a true believer. She likely earned some points among true liberals and she forced Patrick to cover his left flank.
I will be attending next week's debate as it is open to the public. 'Tis the season...
Onwards!
The Prof
First off, John Keller gets an A for moderating and keeping the contestants under a modicum of control.
The debate ranged from carefully planned and delivered sound bytes to a wideranging and spirited discussion. No major mistakes were evident and all four candidates were prepared.
Deval Patrick ended up with a B plus bordering on A minus. He is an experienced debater and for the most part was in command of the facts. He was able to avoid many (but not all) of Charlie's jabs. He clearly was talking up accomplishments (as he sees it) of his administration. He was under attack from the Left courtesy of Jill Stein and constantly attempted to remain the "reasonable" one in the room. Patrick is very skilled at this and acquited himself well. He may be losing some of the more left-wing Democrats to Stein, but most will come home by November.
Charlie Baker positioned himself as the only major candidate not currently on Beacon Hill. He took heat from all the others on his tenure at Harvard-Pilgrim and rising health insurance premium costs along with his ties to the Big Dig. However, he was able to parry those for the most part and tried to keep the debate framed as a race between him and Patrick whilst trying to either ignore Cahill or tie him to the power machine of Beacon Hill. He fired numerous jabs at Patrick and showed more spirit than I had anticipated. Solid B Plus.
Tim Cahill had me thinking that he was trying to channel Ronald Reagan on fiscal policy and certainly positioned himself as Mr. Conservative. How successful he was at this remains to be seen. He was not as aggressive as Baker or Patrick and directed more of his fire at Baker as they are going after the same type of voters. Overall he may have captured some of the more disillusioned voters, but I am not sure that he catapulted himself as a truly viable candidate. The Prof gives him a gentleman's B minus (almost a C plus, but I am in a good mood) for committing no major gaffes, but it also reflects a lack of aggressiveness and the jury remains out on whether or not he really wants the job.
Jill Stein gets a well deserved A minus, not due to any ideological lean (The Prof is oh so boringly non-partisan in this blog) but due to command of issues (Green Energy being overstated a bit after an hour) and the passion of a true believer. She likely earned some points among true liberals and she forced Patrick to cover his left flank.
I will be attending next week's debate as it is open to the public. 'Tis the season...
Onwards!
The Prof
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
61 days to E-Day
Just a short update for today...back to teaching for the semester but will have a lot to share over the next several weeks regarding "E-Day" on November 2. My plan is to keep following the local Massachusetts races and also to take a detailed look at the nationwide races for the Senate and House.
What happens in November will directly impact how the Obama Administration finishes the final years of its initial term. Partisan control of Congress switching in one or both houses will impact what the President can - and cannot do going into his own reelection in 2012.
Will "Tea" be on the menu after November? Methinks it is a distinct possibility...
Onwards!
The Prof
What happens in November will directly impact how the Obama Administration finishes the final years of its initial term. Partisan control of Congress switching in one or both houses will impact what the President can - and cannot do going into his own reelection in 2012.
Will "Tea" be on the menu after November? Methinks it is a distinct possibility...
Onwards!
The Prof
Thursday, July 29, 2010
45% in November should be enough
94 days until November 2 and "E-Day" in the Commonwealth and across the nation...
Joan Venochi had a insightful column in today's Boston Globe asking what "vote percentage" does Patrick need to win in November. Professor Brad says garnering 42% should likely do it - assuming Cahill remains in the race of course.
This 45% number would also apply to Baker and is what I would consider the magic over/under figure. Cahill should poll slightly better in November than Christy Mihos did in 2006 as he has statewide name recognition and enough money to run and organize a statewide campaign - this is not an insurgency. That said, third party candidates typically end up doing worse then they are showing in the polls due to many voters who may be sympathetic to that candidate not wanting to waste their vote whilst in the booth. Many of them ending up holding their nose and voting for the lesser of evils of the candidates who they believe can actually win. Yes that last sentence was full of cliches, but it is true!
Mihos ended up with 7% in 2006 after polling between 10-15% during the summer of 2006. I suspect Cahill can end up with 9% at the least (he is polling somewhat better than Mihos at the same stage of the campaign). Although none of the current polling reflects Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein, she will likely draw a percentage or two from Patrick's left flank. Thus if Cahill and Stein combined can take 11% of the vote (and this is a floor, not a ceiling) Baker and Patrick will fight over the 89% remaining - quick division tells me that 45% would be the threshold to win.
Scenario I (Likely worst case for Cahill)
Patrick 45
Baker 44
Cahill 9
Stein 2
Scenario II (Cahill Overperforms)
Patrick 42
Baker 38
Cahill 18
Stein 2
Scenario III (let's give one to Charlie)
Patrick 42
Baker 44
Cahill 12
Stein 2
On the polling front...Rasmussen released another poll last week in a series of polls that will run once a month and then every two weeks by late October. Below is a chart of the Rasmussen results thus far (Got a bit Excel happy today!)
Deval Patrick's numbers are in a bit of a slide from his May highs. In a normal year an incumbent polling under 40% would be in the political morgue, but this ain't a normal year.
Charlie Baker remains stuck in neutral. This must be frustrating as he gets 30% for having the R next to his name, but can't build on it. He is simply running a mediocre campaign thus far and has a problem with his unfavorables - we will get to this shortly.
Cahill continues to poll in the mid to high teens peeling potential Baker voters away - something that Governor Patrick must be VERY thankful for!
Curiously, those who are in the "not sure" category have jumped a bit in the past month. It may that people are simply not paying attention during the hot New England summer, but I wonder if this coupled with the less than stellar candidate favorability numbers mean that voters simply are not enthusiastic about any of these candidates.
Bear in mind that there is nearly a 5% margin of error so there is also statistical noise here as well. However, I would feel safe saying that Patrick has a small, but meaningful lead.
Favorables/Unfavorables
As we can see, Cahill has been likely hurt by the barrage of negative ads; doubtless to knock him out of the race. However, I think that this may give him a reason to stay in and see it through to the (probably) bitter end.
Baker's negatives are also uncomfortably inching up. Unfortunately for him, Patrick has yet to launch the attack ads that he has in the can. Baker still has time to turn this around and will begin in earnest after Labor Day. The question is - is this enough time to build a positive perception among voters or have opinions solidified to the point where Baker can't break the 40% barrier which he needs to do.
Patrick's negatives are very high and as mentioned previously, should be a stake through his political heart, but the sheer physics of this race allow him to keep a lead. Although he has higher negatives than either Baker or Cahill, ironically Patrick remains the favorite with a little over three months to go.
Joan Venochi had a insightful column in today's Boston Globe asking what "vote percentage" does Patrick need to win in November. Professor Brad says garnering 42% should likely do it - assuming Cahill remains in the race of course.
This 45% number would also apply to Baker and is what I would consider the magic over/under figure. Cahill should poll slightly better in November than Christy Mihos did in 2006 as he has statewide name recognition and enough money to run and organize a statewide campaign - this is not an insurgency. That said, third party candidates typically end up doing worse then they are showing in the polls due to many voters who may be sympathetic to that candidate not wanting to waste their vote whilst in the booth. Many of them ending up holding their nose and voting for the lesser of evils of the candidates who they believe can actually win. Yes that last sentence was full of cliches, but it is true!
Mihos ended up with 7% in 2006 after polling between 10-15% during the summer of 2006. I suspect Cahill can end up with 9% at the least (he is polling somewhat better than Mihos at the same stage of the campaign). Although none of the current polling reflects Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein, she will likely draw a percentage or two from Patrick's left flank. Thus if Cahill and Stein combined can take 11% of the vote (and this is a floor, not a ceiling) Baker and Patrick will fight over the 89% remaining - quick division tells me that 45% would be the threshold to win.
Scenario I (Likely worst case for Cahill)
Patrick 45
Baker 44
Cahill 9
Stein 2
Scenario II (Cahill Overperforms)
Patrick 42
Baker 38
Cahill 18
Stein 2
Scenario III (let's give one to Charlie)
Patrick 42
Baker 44
Cahill 12
Stein 2
On the polling front...Rasmussen released another poll last week in a series of polls that will run once a month and then every two weeks by late October. Below is a chart of the Rasmussen results thus far (Got a bit Excel happy today!)
Deval Patrick's numbers are in a bit of a slide from his May highs. In a normal year an incumbent polling under 40% would be in the political morgue, but this ain't a normal year.
Charlie Baker remains stuck in neutral. This must be frustrating as he gets 30% for having the R next to his name, but can't build on it. He is simply running a mediocre campaign thus far and has a problem with his unfavorables - we will get to this shortly.
Cahill continues to poll in the mid to high teens peeling potential Baker voters away - something that Governor Patrick must be VERY thankful for!
Curiously, those who are in the "not sure" category have jumped a bit in the past month. It may that people are simply not paying attention during the hot New England summer, but I wonder if this coupled with the less than stellar candidate favorability numbers mean that voters simply are not enthusiastic about any of these candidates.
Bear in mind that there is nearly a 5% margin of error so there is also statistical noise here as well. However, I would feel safe saying that Patrick has a small, but meaningful lead.
Favorables/Unfavorables
As we can see, Cahill has been likely hurt by the barrage of negative ads; doubtless to knock him out of the race. However, I think that this may give him a reason to stay in and see it through to the (probably) bitter end.
Baker's negatives are also uncomfortably inching up. Unfortunately for him, Patrick has yet to launch the attack ads that he has in the can. Baker still has time to turn this around and will begin in earnest after Labor Day. The question is - is this enough time to build a positive perception among voters or have opinions solidified to the point where Baker can't break the 40% barrier which he needs to do.
Patrick's negatives are very high and as mentioned previously, should be a stake through his political heart, but the sheer physics of this race allow him to keep a lead. Although he has higher negatives than either Baker or Cahill, ironically Patrick remains the favorite with a little over three months to go.
Onwards!
The Prof
Thursday, July 8, 2010
John Henning - RIP
Veteran political reporter John Henning passed away on Wednesday. This is very sad news for anyone who grew up in New England and followed his reporting, newscasts, and must-watch election night coverage.
I always thought that his read on the local and national political scene was both thoughtful and spot on. He will be missed.
I always thought that his read on the local and national political scene was both thoughtful and spot on. He will be missed.
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