2020 Presidential Election: Conditions in the Age of COVID

Election 2020, an election that was likely to be a "typical" presidential election year- at least typical in the age of Trump where many of the old rules have been rewritten. This election would feature a closely divided electorate facing the prospect of reelecting a president with relatively strong economic numbers coupled with no major military conflicts - normally enough to reelect any incumbent president,

However, President Donald Trump's personal actions, impeachment, and a habit of degrading individuals and groups opposed to him would make this election a tossup against a generic Democratic candidate. All seemed geared for a bruising match with former Vice President Joe Biden who had bested a crowded field of candidates by early March 2020. This election would be a referendum on Trumpism with the economy, impeachment, and progressive vs conservative policy solutions as the major issues.

Until COVID-19...

Until a virus that threatens the  health and lives of millions of Americans and people worldwide...

Until a national shutdown and Quarantine...

Until unprecedented societal disruption...

Until a deep economic recession or perhaps depression...

The current situation is going to be THE issue of 2020 - at least as of this writing. How both Trump and Biden - along with the actions of the nation's governors handle this will have a great bearing on the results of 2020. Let us examine the main players.

President Trump

Presidents either shine or wither in a crisis (compare FDR WW2 and JFK Cuban Missile Crisis, vs Hoover Great Depression and Carter Iranian Hostage Crisis). The jury remains out on Trump and may well be a hung jury as partisan differences are exceedingly sharp with Republicans praising his leadership and Democrats citing that he has not done enough and was too slow to act. These opinions are unlikely to change and reflect the deep chasm that exists in today's political climate.

More encouraging for Trump is that he and Congress have worked together to pass several pieces of relief legislation related to the Covid Crisis. In a rare show of bipartisanship these provisions were passed nearly unanimously. In addition he has resisted the more right wing segments of his party in terms of taking the crisis seriously.

Unfortunately for the president, it looks like he was persuaded by a combination of poor polling data and his medical team (shout out to Doctors Fauci and Birx) to shift course to one more aligned with the vast majority of public health official. In addition, a growing chorus on the political and religious Right is calling for a much quicker reopening of the economy and society than many in the public health community would suggest.

Given all of the drama throughout his presidency, Trump's reelection will stand or fall on the perceptions of how he has handled this crisis both in terms of the health ramifications and the economic dislocation. Trump did receive a bit of a polling bounce (known as the rally effect) but that has receded in recent days. Expect things to change rapidly as he has a knack for making contradictory statements and policy by the day,


Joe Biden

Biden, now the presumptive Democratic nominee has risen from an endangered campaign as recently as February. After very shaky performances in Iowa (which has probably lost its first in the nation status) and and New Hampshire, he smashed temporary front-runner Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, Nevada, and most Super Tuesday states. Super Tuesday forced the remaining candidates out of the race (all of whom endorsed Biden) and Biden was the last man standing in the "moderate" lane. Warren and Sanders continued to split the liberal vote for another round of primaries thus amplifying Biden's victories.

Biden benefited greatly from his strong support among Black voters, Rural voters, and voters over 50. The youth vote, touted by many experts as pivotal again failed to materialize in large enough numbers to make a difference. Biden is also seen by most Democrats as the best candidate to run against Trump. There still needs to be some fence mending with those on the party's left wing, but it is likely that he will lead a united party in November.

The major issue Biden faces right now is that he is having great difficulty in getting attention in this period of time. Trump is using the bully pulpit as a way to be on television seven days a week. In these times of Quarantine, Biden cannot hold any rallies and is forced to conduct interviews from his home and issue press statements.

There have been some calls for Biden to name his (female) VP sooner rather then later to create some buzz. There also have been calls to form a type of shadow cabinet to highlight policy differences with the president. The drawback of this is that every member of the cabinet will be scrutinized` and attacked by the GOP. That's politics.


Governors

State governors have received a lot of attention as federalism is alive and well. Governors Cuomo of New York and Newsom of California have emerged as both state and media leaders. There has been considerable tension between many governors and the Trump administration regarding federal response and coordination as well as the federal versus state role in how and when the nation "reopens". After Trump initially asserted that the president has the right to determine this the governors will be taking the lead (the proper constitutional way, see the 10th amendment) with suggested federal guidance regarding milestones should be achieved, As of this writing, there are three regional compacts (Northeast, West, and Midwest) between mostly Democratic governors on coordinating economic reopening.


What Now?

Over the next several weeks I will examine in depth the evolving political climate and run some early electoral college scenarios. There remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty ranging from how the  actual election will be conducted (in person voting vs mailing ballots) - to how damaging the pandemic will be - to the state of the economy and society by early autumn. Much is in flux and of course I reserve the right to revise my analysis as conditions change.

Stay Healthy and Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts 2018 Election Post Mortem

OK, I know this is about four weeks late, but the Prof has been busy...sounds like an excuse one of my students or kids may make.

Massachusetts yielded few if any surprises. Governor Baker and Senator Warren both convincingly won reelection. Democrats increased their super-majority in the state legislature. Politically, the state will look much the same as it did before.

All of the below graphics are courtesy of NYTimes.com

Governor

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
Charlie Baker*	Republican	1,781,982	66.8%
Jay Gonzalez	Democrat	886,281	33.2

As we can see, Baker ran up his totals all over the state with the exception of the Connecticut Valley and immediate Boston suburbs. Indeed Gonzalez only won in Boston by 1 point, an impressive showing for a Republican. Baker also won in the urban centers of Worcester, Springfield, Lowell and Fall River. Even very liberal western Mass was split about evenly.

Baker won for the following reasons:

• Although a Republican, he is a "Never Trumper" and has rather progressive social perspectives, This inoculated him from the Blue Wave that swept the GOP away in many parts of the nation and affected the GOP downticket in Massachusetts. Gonzalez tried numerous times to tie Baker to Trump, but the voters clearly were not buying it.
• Gonzalez's campaign was chronically underfunded and could not make the media buys necessary to get his message out.
• The Democratic party machinery in the legislature and in local government who play well with Baker, either were silent or quietly supported Baker.
• The state's economy is perceived to be strong. No massive cry from the citizenry for change - steady as she goes with the same team.
• Look for Baker to keep the same "go along, get along" and managerial-focused track for his second term. Should he run for another term in 2022 Baker is likely to draw a much stronger challenge from an ambitious Democrat who may wish to parley the Governor's seat into a springboard for a presidential run. Yes, I am thinking of Attorney General Healy and Reps Moulton and Kennedy. Or they will slug it out if Senator Markey retires, but I digress...

US Senate

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
Elizabeth Warren*	Democrat	1,634,213	60.4%
Geoff Diehl	Republican	979,507	36.2
Shiva Ayyadurai	Independent	91,732	3.4

Senator Warren's win over Geoff Deihl is almost the mirror opposite of Baker's win. Obviously there was a lot of ticket splitting going on last November. Deihl was only able to win in the most traditionally conservative regions of Massachusetts whilst Warren won by massive margins in liberal areas.

Warren cemented her win due to:

• Her status as the incumbent progressive Democrat in a very anti-Trump state. Deilh never had a chance based on the numbers she had on her side.
• Warren had much more money to spend on GOTV activities than the underfunded Deihl.
• Deilh hails from the socially conservative wing of the GOP and was perceived (rightly so) of being a Trump supporter.
• Warren is a star in national politics and is likely to launch a 2020 presidential bid. Her supporters had a lot vested in Warren winning a convincing reelection.

Ballot Questions

Answer	Votes	Pct.
Yes	1,807,644	67.8%
No	857,608	32.2

2,665,252 votes, 100% reporting (2,173 of 2,173 precincts)

Question 1Limit Nurse-to-Patient Ratio

Answer	Votes	Pct.
No	1,847,037	70.4%
Yes	777,180	29.6

2,624,217 votes, 99% reporting (2,172 of 2,173 precincts)

Question 2Create Citizens Commission

Answer	Votes	Pct.
Yes	1,853,886	71.4%
No	744,352	28.6

2,598,238 votes, 99% reporting (2,172 of 2,173 precincts)

No real surprises on the three ballot questions except that the "No" margin on Question 1 was more than I had anticipated. Credit that to a massive advertising campaign by the hospital and health care industry which is very influential in Massachusetts.

Other races and observations

• For the past 25 years the GOP has not been able to win a House seat in Massachusetts. With partisanship so nationalized I think in another 25 years Massachusetts will continue to send an all Democratic delegation to Washington. Even in the open 3rd District seat in the Merrimack Valley it was a 62-34 win for Lori Trahan, the Democratic candidate. No Republican candidate exceeded 41% of the vote in any congressional race.
• The Blue Wave whittled away more of the already scarce GOP presence in the state legislature. Expect this to continue as whomever runs against Trump in  2020 will rack up a massive win in Massachusetts. 

Almost time to turn our gaze to 2020 as the Invisible Primary is well underway. One thing about electoral politics  - it is never static or boring.

Onwards!

The Prof

US 2018 Senate Election Civics Lesson

In the 2018 midterm election Democrats received more total national votes than the Republicans in Senatorial contests by a margin of 47.9 million to 34.3 million. Thus the question has come up as to how the GOP is still controlling the Senate after the 2018 midterm.

Keep this in mind that we are a constitutional democratic republic and the system was set up to work in such a way to protect state rights. In a national parliamentary system the Democrats would control more legislative seats. Consider these points.

• Under our federal system states elect two Senators regardless of the state's population. Thus CA and NY will have many more potential votes than does WY or VT for each Senate election thus a big win for a particular party in large states can run up the national total.

• Second, the Democrats had many more incumbent seats in play last night and most actually won by fairly wide margins - the media was focused on a few close races. Bear in mind that Warren's win in Massachusetts gave the Democrats a margin of over 750k votes while Scott's apparent win in Florida was by less than 15k votes. This yields a a net plurality of over 700k votes for the Democratic vote total, but one senator is elected from each party. 

• Lastly, under the California open primary rules, two Democrats ran against each other netting over 7 million total Democratic votes and zero Republican senatorial votes in CA. 

Onwards!

The Prof

2018 Massachusetts Races - Final Predictions

Election Day 2018 is tomorrow, so some quick predictions and analysis of a fairly predictable race (more of a stroll in fact) here in the Bay State.

Governor

Incumbent governor Charlie Baker is leading Jay Gonzalez by a more than comfortable 43 points in the last poll. Baker has consistently outperform his underfunded and largely unknown opponent. Gonzalez is suffering from a lack of institutional party support as well as Baker plays ball well with the Democratic legislature. Baker has successfully parleyed attempts to tie him the Donald Trump - in fact he may be the most anti-Trump Republican holding major office.

Gonzalez should win (albeit by modest margins) in Boston and the major urban areas and the liberal 5 College region in the Pioneer Valley, Expect Baker to rack up large victories in the suburbs - even the left leaning Route 2 corridor west of Boston. Across the 495 belt, South Shore, Essex and Worcester County Baker wins by landslide totals. He is not going to win by 43 points, but I expect and easy double digit win for the incumbent governor.

Prediction: Baker wins 62 - 38


US Senate

Many Baker voters will split their tickets and also cast a vote for incumbent senator Elizabeth Warren. GOP candidate Geoffe Dheil who has tied himself to the national GOP will suffer due to Trump's extreme unpopularity in Massachusetts.

Prediction: Warren wins 58-42


Other Races:

• Democrats win all other state constitutional offices easily, all by greater than 20 points.

• Democrats win all contested US House races easily, all by more than 20 points. 

• Ballot questions 2 and 3 win in a landslide, Question 1 on nurse staffing ratios loses by 5 points.

• In national races, the Democrats capture the House by about 20 seats and the GOP holds the Senate and gains 1 seat.

Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts 2018 Primary Analysis

A few thoughts on this month's primary...

7th District Results
Wow, Mea Maxima Culpa!

The 7th District race between Michael Capuano and Ayanna Pressley that I was convinced would be won by the veteran congressman turned the political world on its head with Pressley's 59-41 win in the September 4 primary. Conventional (and Professor Brad's) wisdom was to side with the well-financed and politically savvy incumbent...but the voters of the majority-minority 7th District has other ideas. Pressley campaigned and distinguished herself on her story and background as there were few policy differences between the two candidates. This resonated with the activist base and generated very high minority turnout. Capuano barely won in his native city of Somerville and was thrashed elsewhere.

Certainly old political norms are breaking down and a new political class appears to be rising, at least in regions with high minority populations. This is happening nationwide as well with female and minority candidates being nominated in Democratic primaries in far greater numbers than in past years. A record 43% of 2018 House Democratic nominees nationwide are women.

However, Secretary of State Galvin easily disposed of his younger and more liberal challenger so it remains to be seen if this will occur statewide.

3rd District Results

In this ten person primary, it came down to a recount between the top two candidates where Lori Trahan squeezed out a 143 vote margin over Dan Koh - out of 88,00 votes cast in the primary. Winning a primary with 21% of the vote in our "first past the post" system has some calling for reform such as ranked choice voting which would have voters indicate their second choice in such a crowded primary and allocate those votes form the bottom finishing candidates to those who finished in the top echelon until one candidate gets over 50% of the vote based upon the raw vote combined with the second choice votes. Maine already has a such a system and this happening in Massachusetts may result in a greater push for it here.

Democratic Governor

No surprise, Jay Gonzalez easily defeated Bob Massie. Organization and money mattered here. Notably about 20% of Democratic ballots statewide had blank votes on the governor's race - perhaps an indication of low enthusiasm for these candidates.

Republican Governor

As expected Incumbent Charlie Baker defeated his challenger, Scott Lively. What was unusual was that Lively with no money or organization won 35% of the vote against the most popular governor in the nation. This indicates that a significant number of conservative GOP voters cast a protest against Baker's political moderation and collaborative style. In fact new polling (to be covered in my next post) shows Baker has higher favorability among Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. This will help him in the general election, but I expect many Lively voters to blank the governor's race in November.

Republican Senate

State Representative Geoff Diehl easily beat his two opponents with over 50% of the vote. He had money, name recognition, and importantly experience running campaigns unlike his opponents.

Now that the primary is over the real fireworks begin!

Onwards!

The Prof

2018 Massachusetts Primaries

Hi all,

In the midst of the summer doldrums, but wait...Massachusetts Primary Day 2018 is almost here!! There are some spirited races in the Bay State and I will give a quick rundown on them.

Given that the Primary is the day after Labor Day, turnout statewide will not be impressive. This bodes well for incumbents and those with name recognition. Media coverage during the summer is not what it is during the fall election campaign thus some of these open races are more difficult to call than others.

Massachusetts Governor

Republican

Governor Baker has a primary challenger in Scott Lively, a Springfield pastor who hails from the deeply socially conservative wing of the GOP. Lively surprised somewhat in the GOP convention where he garnered the support of 27% of the GOP delegates. Lively has tied himself very closely to both President Trump and a very conservative social agenda (much of it anti LGBT). There are a hard core of conservatives in Massachusetts who view Baker as a liberal/traitor to the cause as he is socially moderate, has publicly criticized the President, and works cooperatively with the Democratic state legislature.

However, Baker will win the primary very easily. Independents who cross into the GOP primary will support the more moderate Baker. His administration has presided over a booming state economy. Lively has little money for a real campaign and is seen as a radical gadfly by most political analysts. Baker is the most popular governor in the nation if the polling is to be believed and is flush with campaign funds. Baker will not win the hardcore "Trumpers" due to his heresy, but should take around 75% of the primary vote on September 4.

Democrats

With Setti Warren dropping out of the race this past spring there are two candidates; Jay Gonzalez who worked in the Patrick Administration and Bob Massie and entrepreneur and activist. The Democratic convention endorsed Gonzales, but Massie received enough support to be a credible candidate.

There has been no real polling on this very low profile race. My sense is that Gonzalez probably has the momentum, but that is based really on the party endorsement and his name recognition. Not really ready to call numbers on this one, but I will anyway - Gonzalez wins 60-40. However, either candidate has a very uphill battle to beat Charlie Baker in November.

Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth

There is a surprisingly heated Democratic primary between long-time incumbent William Galvin and Boston City Council member Josh Zakim. Zakin won the endorsement of the State Democratic Convention over Galvin 55% to 45%. This is a classic old blood versus new blood contest. Galvin is running as a trusted competent elections official. Zakim, who is much younger, and part of the the progressive Left has Galvin on the defensive for the first time in many years.

If there is high urban and youth turnout in the primary, it will be a late evening. However, with this being a low-profile race (except for political junkies), it is likely that Galvin turns out the old machine one more time and wins albeit with the biggest scare of his political life.


US Senate

Three Republicans; State Representative Geoff Diehl, Businessman John Kingston, and former Romney administration undersecretary Beth Lindstrom are vying to run against Democrat Elizabeth Warren in November. As name recognition among all candidate is fairly low, money and organization will be the key to victory. Thus my money is on Diehl. He was the co-chair of Trump's 2016 campaign in Massachusetts and is well wired in GOP circles. Additionally, as a sitting state rep he has more experience in running and winning electoral races than his two opponents. Lindstrom has been running a good deal of advertising and making multiple media appearances and may surprise but I think Diehl wins by a 5 to 10 point margin in this three way race. News flash - Warren will win reelection convincingly no matter who she faces, although I think Linstrom would keep it a bit closer than Diehl.

Third Congressional District

There are currently ten Democratic candidates running for the Merrimack Valley and northwest suburban seat of retiring representative Niki Tsongas. I have absolutely no idea who will win, even though The Prof resides in the district. Polling shows that over half of the voters are undecided or disinterested. Organization and GOTV are the keys of victory in any election - especially in a crowded primary such as this. I suppose whomever garners more than 20% of the vote will win. Very uncharacteristically I will take a pass on trying to call this one. I will predict that the winner of the primary will be the easy winner in November as the GOP is toxic at the national level in this district and indeed throughout Massachusetts.

Seventh Congressional District

This is a very racially and economically diverse district. Representing much of Boston, Cambridge, and Somerville, long term Democratic incumbent Representative Mike Capuano is facing the first real political contest since he won initially won election in 1998. Boston City Councillor Ayanna Pressley is running a strong challenge with a promise to be more confrontational with the Trump Administration which is exciting progressives. In terms of public policy there is very little ideological difference between the two. The issue that Pressley is running on is greater political activism and the appeal of having a minority representing the majority-minority Seventh District. Capuano, although a progressive, is a deal maker and works across the aisle.

The last two polls have Capuano holding a lead of between 9 and 13 points. However Pressley is winning the polling in minority areas of the district. As said before - turnout and organization will determine the winner of this contest. Based on his organization and name recognition (i.e the power of incumbency) Capuano should win this by greater than ten points. Minority turnout will be low given this is a primary and Capuano is campaigning hard as he is well aware of the demise of the number four House Democrat in New York a couple of months ago to a very progressive challenger.

Once the primary is concluded, we will look at the 2018 fall campaign with great interest. Onwards!

The Prof

Seven Months Out - Baker and Warren both poised to win easily this November

Hello again,

Some new polling from WBUR on the 2018 race for Governor and Senator in Massachusetts - and little has changed in the past several months. Both Governor Baker and Senator Warren are in strong positions for reelection.

Name recognition and favorablity are key to winning a statewide election and both Baker and Warren have considerable advantages over their largely unknown rivals. In head to head match-ups, both candidates have significant double digit leads.

Baker's Prospects

It remains early, but I would not be surprised if the Massachusetts Democratic Party does not work that hard to oppose Governor Baker's reelection - he is moderate to liberal on the social wedge issues that drives the "resistance" to the national GOP. I don't expect him to win by the 30 or so points that he is currently ahead by in the WBUR poll against his potential rivals - but he is likely to win by a still comfortable 5 to 10 point margin. 

The WBUR poll finds that Baker is seen as doing relatively well on the major state issues with some voter angst continuing around the MBTA, health costs and the cost of housing. However, the negatives are not high enough (at this point) to seriously threaten his popularity and likely reelection. 

He has successfully kept his distance from President Trump and voters seem to be well aware of that. Opposition to President Trump will certainly help whomever the Democratic nominee is, but unless Baker is faced by an unforeseen crisis that is handled poorly he will be largely inoculated against the coming blue wave which will greatly erode the GOP's representation in both state capitols and Washington DC. Credit both his bipartisanship and likable easygoing manner that contrasts well against the more bombastic members of the GOP.

Senator Warren

Elizabeth Warren, while divisive nationally, remains a very strong favorite for reelection. Her potential opposition is largely unknown and whomever is nominated will be severely underfunded. Warren has a burgeoning war chest and will be able to raise money from a national network of doners. She may suffer a bit as a 2020 presidential run (despite a recent denial) may be pending and would begin next year.

State Rep Geoff Diehl is likely to be her opponent. As he chaired Trump's 2016 campaign in the Bay State, I would be surprised if he breaks 40% of the vote. I think there will be a lot of split ticket voting for Baker and Warren.

2018 State Ballot Measures

There continues to be strong support for the four proposed ballot measures.

• Nearly 80% support raising the state's minimum wage to $15 per hour.
• Recent polling shows large majorities in favor of both enacting a millionaire's surtax and reducing the state sales tax from 6.5% to 5%. (interesting how the public seems to support cutting their own taxes and raising other people's taxes - BL)
• A strong majority support enacting mandatory paid family leave.

It is too early to predict that these ballot measure will all pass as there will be a significant media campaign waged by their opponents and admittedly, most voters are still not focused on the upcoming election and possible consequences of these ballot questions. In particular, there will be a major campaign waged against reducing the sales tax as many powerful interests (teachers, state employees, public health advocates, etc) rely on those revenues.


Congressional Massachusetts Races

Massachusetts politics are different from national politics - we are essentially a one party state in most circumstances, but have a penchant to electing liberal Republicans to the governor's office on occasion. But as the Bluest State expect the all Democratic Massachusetts delegation in the House to win overwhelmingly (several of the incumbents will run unopposed) and the open Third District Congressional Seat held by the retiring Nicki Tsongas will be won by whichever Democrat who wins the party primary this September. With the national GOP held in low regard by most voters it will be the labor of Sisyphus for any Republican Congressional candidate to gain any traction here.

More as the year winds on...

Onwards!

The Prof