10 Days Out - Electoral College Predictions - a Tossup Election?

We are now in the final sprint, today a look at the race and where the swing states are...

The Prof's Debate #3 Grades:

Obama   B
Romney  B

The third debate was a tie.  Foreign policy, while of utmost importance simply isn't what this particular election is about.  Romney did what he had to and appeared calm and presidential, while Obama scored on debating points.  Obama was ahead for much of the debate, but Romney closed well, therefore a tie in my book.

Let's look at the electoral landscape yet again...Bear in mind the polling is now all post-debates and is based on likely voter, not registered voter models.

Based on the 270towin.com site, the red and blue states indicate the "safe" states for each campaign with the swing states shown in beige.  Let's look at each swing state and see how things have changes from my September analysis.  My October analysis for each state is indicated in italics.

North Carolina - 15 EVs:  
The Tarheel State which is historically Republican was captured by Obama by a whisker in 2008.  This was mainly driven by high African-American and college student turnout. Current head to head polling shows Romney with a small, but consistent lead.
Early Prediction - Romney  

September: But some recent polling shows it now tied.  Unless there is a total meltdown, I still think Romney squeaks it out here.   
September Prediction - Romney
 
October: Looks like with Romney's October surge, that NC has been put away.  Early voting numbers show that Obama's advantage of  2008 has evaporated.  I think Romney wins comfortably in NC now. October Prediction - Romney


Nevada - 6 EVs: 
This state is an interesting mix with both a sizable Hispanic and Mormon population.  Won easily by Obama in 2008, Nevada is a battleground once more. However, I think that the president's advantage among Hispanics will pull it out for him in the end.
Early Prediction - Obama

September: Still agree with this analysis although the polls remain fairly close. September Prediction - Obama

October: Polls remain close, now a tossup, but I think early voting numbers are enough to favor a small Obama victory.                                                                                October Prediction - Obama
 

Iowa - 6 EVs:  
Recent polling shows this state as tied which is good news for Romney. Obama is well-organized here and this will be nip and tuck.  However, Iowa is very white and this is a group that has been deserting Obama in droves since 2008. Current polling shows a neck and neck race here. Both candidates are working very hard at this one.    
Early Prediction - Romney

September Obama is in better shape in Iowa now than he was a month ago and based on his momentum, I will flip Iowa to the Democrats...for now...                              September prediction - Obama

October: Polls have shifted this back to a tie.  Romney's strong lead among white voters nationwide will just put him over the top here methinks...                                           October Prediction - Romney

 
Colorado - 9 EVs:  
This is an eclectic state with a conservative rural and military population combined with liberal meccas like Boulder.  A high Hispanic turnout should help Obama, but early polling shows a very close race.  I have to flip a coin on this one.  
Early Prediction - Obama

September: The coin I flipped in June is still on edge, but state polling is showing either a tie or small Obama lead so we will keep this the same as well. 
September Prediction - Obama

October: Romney has moved into a very small lead here and the early voting number appear to favor him so I am switching COP back to red. This is a close one.
October Predication - Romney


Florida - 29 EVs:  
This is a must-win for Romney and lends some weight to selecting Sen. Rubio for VP. Florida historically leans Republican, but Obama will be very competitive here.  But I see Romney pulling it out in the end based on his strong lead among voters over age 50.  
Early Prediction - Romney

September: Polls show an absolute tie in Florida.  Not good news for Romney who hoped to put away this swing state early. Without a win here, his path to 270 becomes almost impossible. No longer think Romney has the advantage here as he is being hammered over Medicare and immigration.  But with the state's economy in poor shape comparatively I will leave it where it was, but would not be surprised at all if it flips back to the president.  
September Prediction - Romney

October: Polling now shows that the nationwide Romney surge has hit the beach in FL and is eroding Obama's chances of keeping this state blue.  Feeling more confident that Romney steals this state's critical 29 electoral votes. 
October Prediction - Romney


Virginia - 13 EVs:  
The Old Dominion is getting more purple than it was thanks to an influx of wealthy, educated, and socially liberal whites in the DC suburbs, but much of it remains part of the old South.  Republicans won big here in 2010, but I think Obama prevails here for a second time due to a large and enthusiastic turnout in Fairfax County. This will be very closely contested.  
Early Prediction - Obama

September: Polling now shows Obama expanding his lead.  This is another must-win for Romney, but if things continue as they are I see him losing by at least 5 points. Obama really has solidified his lead in northern Virginia and the DC suburbs.  The addition of former VA Rep and Libertarian presidential candidate Virgil Goode also drains some votes that would likely go to Romney.  
September Prediction - Obama

October: As in several other swing states, Romney has taken a small lead in most polls. Obama will do well in Fairfax County and the DC suburbs, but Romney will sweep in coal country and likely among military voters in the Virginia Beach area.
October Prediction - Romney


Pennsylvania - 20 EVs:  
Described by strategist James Carville as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on the ends with Alabama in the middle, PA is a state with a split personality.  Romney will win in the rural central part of the state and in coal country while Obama will rake in the urban areas.  The election will be won in suburbia but with a historic Democratic lean I will place PA (for now) as an Obama state.
Early Prediction - Obama

September: Polling shows this state leaning further into Obama's camp.  The fact that Romney is not campaigning or advertising heavily in PA is another indicator that he is writing this state off.  Obama should win by a comfortable margin, some polls now have him in a double digit lead.  
September Prediction - Obama

October: Polling has tightened again with a few showing a tie, but Obama seems to be maintaining a lead of between 4 and 6 points.  If Romney has a huge turnout in rural areas he could take it (and thus the election), but I think Obama hangs on here based on the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage. Also, Romney has not committed significant resources here.
October Prediction - Obama


Ohio - 18 EVs:   
Another must win for Romney; no Republican has won the presidency in recent history without the Buckeye state. Again this is a battle to be waged in suburban Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati with Romney winning big in rural areas and Obama holding the cities.  This will be close, but I give the edge to Romney at this point.  
Early Prediction - Romney

September: Not any more.  Romney is consistently down by ever widening margins especially over the past couple of weeks.  Looks like the auto bailout and Ohio's comparatively good local economy is boosting the president.  In some polling he is winning women by 20 points and the race is even among men.  Romney needs to turn this one around immediately or he is in deep trouble.  
September Prediction - Obama

October: What a difference a month makes.  This is back to a coin toss.  Obama is maintaining a very slight advantage in the polls, but all are within the margin of error.  Ohio is indeed ground zero of this election - if Obama loses OH, he is a one term president.  If he wins, Romney's path to 270 is very difficult.  For now, I will keep it with Obama, but I can easily see Romney squeaking it out here.  May be a long night!
October Prediction - Obama


Michigan - 16 EVs:  
Obama seemed very strong here a month ago, but recent polling shows a closer race.  Romney has family ties here, but his opposition to the auto bailout has hurt him. MI has been trending Democratic in recent years and while close, I think Obama will squeak it out here. Early prediction - Obama

September: Like Ohio, the president seems to be pulling away.  Another state where Romney has stopped advertising as well. looks like another state Obama does not have to worry about or dedicate a lot of resources to.
September Prediction - Obama

October: Michigan, like PA has closed.  Unemployment remains high, thus Romney does have a shot here, but I am betting the auto bailout helps keep this state blue.
October Prediction - Obama


Wisconsin - 10 EVs:  
This state was very close in 2000 and 2004, but was won easily by Obama in 2008.  The recent failure of the recall election against Gov. Walker and a strong Republican organization makes this very competitive this time around.  A possible Paul Ryan VP pick makes this even more interesting. Another coin flip...
Early Prediction - Romney

September: The Ryan pick has made this state competitive, but polling in WI is showing the same trend of independents and women to Obama.  Ryan may not be enough here as Romney continues to falter, in fact, I am now thinking that Obama wins this by a few.
September Prediction - Obama

October: Like other swing states, the gap has closed back to a tie.  WI is getting a lot of attention as it is crucial for Romney if he loses OH.  Ryan is helping here and the momentum favors Romney.  I am going to move it back to red, but this is a 50/50 state.
October Prediction - Romney


New Hampshire - 4 EVs:  
In an election as potentially close as this one, the Granite State's four electoral voes may decide the winner. Historically Republican, but trending Democratic, this will be close.  Romney has spent a lot of time here, but polling shows that his move to the political right may hurt him in this libertarian state.  One more coin flip.
Early Prediction - Obama

September:Based on consistent polling showing an Obama advantage, I am keeping this where it is.
September Prediction - Obama

October: Polling has tightened here (like everywhere else!)  Some are showing Romney in the lead, but the socially conservative nature of the national GOP simply plays very poorly in libertarian NH and should keep Obama ahead on election night - barely.
October Prediction - Obama 

Based on these predictions, this is how the map would look...



If this holds, Romney wins the presidency 273 to 265 - about as razor thin a margin as one can get.

Bear in mind, I am assigning these tossup states based on polling, campaign activity, some early voting data, and what I think the likely voter model will be. If I am off just a bit, my predictions will be wrong.  It is not implausible that either candidate is able to have a solid Electoral College victory.

Why have so many states flipped - some of my reasoning...

• Romney has taken a national polling lead of between 1 and 4 points depending on the poll.  National numbers matter insofar as they show trends that sometimes state polling does not pick up.  If Romney wins the national vote by 2-4 points, it becomes almost impossible to lose the Electoral College.
• Romney is doing extremely well among white voters in general and suburban independents in particular.  Based on this, I am tilting Iowa and Wisconsin into his column as these are white and generally rural states.
• Voters see the economy as the number one issue and Romney has an advantage on this issue.
•  While Obama is still winning with personal popularity, the debates have helped Romney rehab his image and his favorables now outweigh his unfavorables.
• Republican enthusiasm and likelihood to vote is sky high.
• Romney looks more competitive in Pennsylvania and Michigan,.  While he may not win them, it compels Obama to divert campaign resources there...and away from other states.  For example, Romney's recent ad buy in Minnesota is probably a head fake, but again forces Obama on the defensive.
• Obama is campaigning on the defensive and trying to hold the Ohio firewall - another sign that this is a very close race and that he has not regained the momentum - yet

Now, even though I have flipped my model to Romney, I still believe that Obama has the slight advantage in winning reelection. He has more paths to 270 than does Romney.  For example flip tossup state Colorado and Obama wins.

Reasons why Obama may win...

• Overwhelming support among minority voters.  The nation is slowly becoming less white; if demographics is destiny this may be enough to eke out wins in some of the tossups.
• Obama may have the better "ground game" that will turn out his voters, especially with so many early voters,.  Early voters were Obama's key to victory in 2008.
• Romney is not doing as well among women as he needs to. The Democrats are working the abortion issue very hard and it may be enough to persuade younger unmarried women to vote.  This is a demographic that typically has low turnout.
• Obama can point to the economic conditions starting to look up.  This stay the course argument may be enough to cut into Romney's advantage on this issue.

All in all, the Prof will be getting progressively less sleep as the day draws nigh.  I will publish final predictions with vote percentages in each state (yes, really out on a limb!) next weekend.  Also, expect a Warren-Brown update this week as well  - hint, ikt ain;t looking good for Brown!

Onwards!

The Prof

State of the Race - 17 Days and Counting...

OK, getting to crunch time here - Debate recap and an assessment of where things stand.

The Prof's Debate #2 Grades:

Obama   B
Romney B-

Debate #2 is now history.  President Obama was wide awake for this one and exceeded the very low expectations after the first debate.  Mitt Romney did well enough, but whiffed at a high hanging curve-ball on the Libya question. Both candidates were highly aggressive and moderator Candy Crowley lost control of the format very quickly.  I scored the debate with Romney ahead by a field goal, but the President (with an assist from the moderator) was able to force a turnover and eke out a small victory.

Romney's strategy was to make this a referendum on Obama's handling of the economy.  He scored on debt and oil production and made a decent defense when questioned how he was different from former President Bush.

Obama continued to attack the Romney tax plan casting doubt on its structure and financial results.  He also was able to hit Romney on women's pay equity and gun control.  But he took the debate at the end with Romney's fumble of the Libya issue (bet it comes up again next week though!) ans his closing statement where he hammered Romney on the now infamous 47% remark.

Instant post-debate polling showed a small victory for Obama.  However, poll respondents continue to trust Romney more on the economy and employment and the polling since Tuesday has shown a static race with Romney maintaining a minimal lead overall.  Gallup is showing a statistically sizable (six point) lead for Romney, but until I see other national polls showing the same, I will treat that as an outlier.

State of the race:

I will publish an extensive Electoral College update next week after the third debate.  But suffice to say there has been significant movement to Romney over the past two weeks.  Recent polls are showing Romney taking small leads in FL, VA, and NC is now pretty much off the table for Obama (Romney is scaling back his campaign in NC to focus on other prizes).  But Obama continues to maintain a small, but stubborn lead in OH, WI, and slightly larger leads in PA and MI - although nearly all of the swing states have been moving in Romney's direction.

Obama needs to maintain a firewall to keep 270 or more electoral votes and OH is the key to this.  If he wins OH, Romney will need to run the table on the outstanding swing states.  But if Romney takes OH, the race will likely be over for the president.  of course this assumes that Romney can win FL and VA and this is by no means a certainty.

Early voting has already begun.  Initial figures are showing that both campaigns are effective in driving core voters to the polls.  Contrast this with 2008 where Obama had a massive early voting advantage.  Momentum also seems to be with Romney, but as we have seen, this can shift on a dime.

So now we are in the home stretch and this is shaping up to be a VERY close election. Romney was able to resurrect himself after the first debate and Obama was able to stop the bleeding over the past week.  The third debate will not mean a whole lot - as long as no major gaffes are made!  Now it is a game of turnout.  The big issues are now:

• Who can get their base out and motivate them to vote?
• Who can appeal to independent swing voters and the truly undecided? (all 14 of them)
• Does either candidate make a major gaffe or mistake?
• The dreaded October Surprise. Do any "skeletons" come out of the closet - e.g. Bush's DUI incident that was released the Friday before the election in 2000.  This was timed for maximum political damage and probably hurt Bush/helped Gore over the final campaign weekend.
• Any major foreign policy surprises - do Iran and Israel spar over nukes?

Fasten all seat belts - we are going in at Mach 1 (or at least 120mph)n in the next two weeks!

Onwards!!!

The Prof

Romney Resurrection?

The Prof is wearing a sling for the next three weeks, but is back to writing after a truly eventful week.  We are now just 28 days out.

The Prof's Debate Grades:

Romney B+
Obama  C

The October 3 Debate (see my previous post of advice for each candidate) was a huge - and desperately needed breath of life and enthusiasm for the Romney campaign. Almost universally, the pundits and both campaigns acknowledged that Romney was a pretty clear winner.  He was more aggressive and was able to showcase his considerable skills though an unfiltered medium.  He also benefited from rather low expectations given the direction of the campaign over the past several weeks.  In short, Romney was able to finally humanize himself and present a clear contrast to the president.

President Obama's performance is harder to evaluate.  There was little in his answers that seemed factually wrong, although one may disagree with his conclusions...but there was a visible lack of energy and vitality.  Post-debate polling from Gallup and CNN showed a clear victory for Romney among debate viewers.  As this is a purely visual medium, Obama's low energy and lackluster appearance contrasted with Romney's good (but not excellent) performance.

The national polls have shifted dramatically over the past week as well.  Pew, Gallup, George Washington University, et all are showing a clear momentum shift to Romney at both the state and national level.  In my years of political analysis, I have rarely seen one debate seem to shift the political landscape so much.  Why so?  Some theories:

• Obama had a lot of "soft" support.  When Romney was able to present his case against Obama in an unfiltered medium, he was able to get some of these folks to at least reconsider him.
• The bandwagon effect - now that Romney appears to have momentum, undecided voters and "leaners" are moving toward him.
• The relatively poor debate  performance of Obama made a subset of voters change their perspective of him.
• Romney's performance and persona did not match the caricature that he has been painted  - quite effectively I might add - by the Obama campaign since July.
• Republican enthusiasm is now outperforming the Democrat's enthusiasm.  A buoyed party will vote in higher numbers than a depressed one.

If Romney had flubbed this debate his political obituary would be written by many and much of his support and money would begin to dry up.  Was this the resurrecting moment for Mitt Romney?  We will know 28 days hence.

So where are we now?

I still think Obama has the overall advantage, but a much smaller one than he had a week ago.  Polls have moved to near parity in states where the president had a decided advantage.

Early voting is now underway - organization and enthusiasm are key for the next four weeks.

There are still two presidential debates to go.  Expect Obama to be MUCH more aggressive.  However, aggression needs to be tempered, otherwise one does not look presidential.

Oh yes - VP SmackDown (I am an unabashed pro-wrestling fan) will be must see TV on Thursday evening!  This will be one of those rare VP debates that may be quite meaningful.

Onwards!

The Prof

Debate and Brief Hiatus

Two quick items.

First this blog will be on a brief hiatus due to the Prof having shoulder surgery today for a torn rotator cuff muscle.  I anticipate being back at writing long before election day.

Secondly, the first presidential debate is this evening.  Romney appears to have stopped the free-fall he has over the past month ( a truly awful September it was), but President Obama remains in a far better position going into the final five weeks.  Debates do matter in a close race and a few well placed one-liners or embarrassing gaffes can mean a lot.  We are in a society of soundbites, like it or not. So, a little advice for each candidate:

Romney

• This is probably your last chance to shake things up.  yes there are two more debates, but this one sets the stage.
• That being said, you need to go after the President, but in a "nice" way.  Articulate differences and offer alternative solutions.
• Be specific - you really have nothing to lose at this point.  Defend your positions and don't be wishy-washy.
• Look and act presidential.  You are on a job interview of the highest level!
• Don't make bad jokes or otherwise commit a gaffe that will be a soundbite for the opposition.
• Try to get under Obama's skin and force him to make an error.
• Make Obama own the bad economy. 
• The debt will be a key issue to highlight as long as you can use it in a way that ordinary people will appreciate.  Personalize the debt's effect on average Americans.
• Make yourself approachable and try to convey being a "regular guy" without it being forced.
• Don't be negative or dour.  Americans like optimism and a can-do attitude.
• And...no $10,000 dollar bets - please!

Obama

• Look and act presidential - its your job!
• Highlight the impact of your policies on stopping the economic slide.
• You are probably in the lead - sit on the football, don't make any statements that can give Romney any momentum.
• Tie the economy to Bush - and portray Romney as Bush II.
• Accentuate the positive!!
• Tie Romney to the Wall Street mentality that contributed to the 2008 crash.
• Portray confidence and control; don't let Mitt rattle you.
• Go after Romney on RomneyCare.
• Throw in millionaires and billionaires, but don't overuse the term either.
• Hold your own - as long as you don't lose badly, you win.
• Tie Romney to Bush, again.
• And...don't say the Mitt is "likeable enough"!

I hope to be back and offering some analysis of the debate shortly.  Until then...

Onwards!

The Prof