Well, we are in a sort of primary limbo until February 28...
Santorum appears to have coalesced as the "anti-Romney" since his wins in the MN, MO, and CO earlier in the month. He is leading in national GOP polls. This is somewhat meaningless as national polls do not produce the 1,144 delegates necessary to capture the nomination, but does confirm the trend that the majority of the Republican electorate is looking to a tangible Romney alternative.
Much more relevant - Michigan polling shows Santorum with a small, but significant lead. As one of Mitt's home states a loss here would be truly crippling. Romney's main argument for the nomination has been the issue of electability in November. But losing in a state where he should cruise in coupled with national polling showing him now losing to President Obama by a 48-42 margin may well cause a massive rethink among both the GOP electorate and party elders.
How can Romney's campaign be in such serious trouble after having such an advantage on paper? He has party backing, money, a nationwide organization, and is a Washington Outsider. But evidently he still isn’t cutting the mustard.
Romney has long had the backing of the Republican Party establishment in terms of donations, organization, and endorsements. Much of this was based upon Romney spending the last several years building this base of support. In an ordinary year, the Republican Party establishment usually backs a moderate and "electable" candidate, eschewing the insurgent challenger. I would point to the McCain, Bush (both of them), and Dole nominations. I would also include the 1976 Ford nomination over Reagan in this capacity as well. Traditionally, safe candidates such as Romney have at least an even shot at winning in November. Had the economy not fallen apart in the fall of 2008, McCain would have had a shot to make it a close race. Recall the polling had him and Obama virtually tied until the markets crashed in September of that year.
Insurgent candidacies (Buchannan in 92 and 96 and Newt in 2012) are typically frowned upon by traditional Republican primary electorate. But in 2012 the establishment candidate has proven himself unable to motivate any real passion among a very passionate (in a "red meat" conservative sense) electorate. The 2012 Republican voter is certainly more conservative and committed than in previous elections and simply is not happy with Romney and his perceived heresies - healthcare reform in Massachusetts, flip-flopping on key issues, a detached and non-personal campaign style, and a failure to ignite any sense of enthusiasm.
Ronald Reagan was arguably the last national candidate to ignite real enthusiasm among the base and the resurgent Republican right wing is desperately searching for a new candidate to inspire them. So far, none of the 2012 contenders have been that candidate and ironically, this unable to coalesce has benefitted Romney up to now. With a split vote capturing a quarter to a third is enough to win over the long haul. But that split electorate may be coming to an end.
This year has been truly remarkable in that we have seen the rise and fall of Bachman, Perry, Cain, and Newt. Now it is Santorum’s turn as the last man standing. He is the real deal in terms of conservative values and philosophy. As I have said before, his stances on social issues are likely to cripple his candidacy in November. But as a primary candidate he has the advantages of being an acceptable alternative to Romney (with Newt’s apparent demise) and Santorum has presented himself well to the GOP electorate for the most part. If Gingrich leaves the race before Super Tuesday on March 6 and makes it effectively a two man race it will undoubtedly benefit Santorum.
What happens in Michigan and beyond will be the proof if he has the stuff to go the distance.
Next post - brokered convention? Unlikely, but possible...
Onwards!
The Prof
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Topsy Turvey!
Here we are again..the Republican electorate simply cannot settle on any one candidate thus far...
After the debacle in South Carolina, Mitt Romney convincingly wins Florida (although loses many rural counties, a danger sign in some respects) and rolls as expected in Nevada. The Mittster is back on track for a day.
However two days later, Rick Santorum wins a stunning trifecta in Colorado (where a Romney win was expected), Missouri (55% of the vote, alas no delegates as it was just a "beauty contest") and Minnesota (you betcha!) where Mitt end up third behind Ron Paul. Mitt is back on his heals once again as he just can't close the deal with social conservatives who now appear to be flocking to the very culturally conservative (but probably unelectable) Santorum.
Oops, almost forgot about Newt. His campaign is nearly out of money and he placed badly in the last four contests. Does he have another resurrection? We shall see.
At the end of the day the delegate count is what matters. To win the GOP nomination a candidate must amass at least 1,144 delegates for a simple majority. To date, this is where the delegate count stands (courtesy of the Washington Post: Feb. 11, 2012).
Mitt 112
Santorum 72
Newt 32
Paul 9
Maine (24 del) is going to releasing its caucus results later today. On February 28 Michigan (30 del) and Arizona (29 del) are voting. Michigan has proportional delegate allocation and Arizona is winner-take all. On March 3 the Washington State Caucus (43 del) will occur. And then ten states (438 delegates at stake) (including the Prof's home state of Massachusetts) are voting on March 6 aka Super Tuesday.
So...this race is still Romney's to lose. He has more money and a much stronger organization than either Santorum of Newt. But he keeps stumbling and literally can't go for more than 48 hours without a gaffe of some sort. Mitt should win in the large state like NY and CA and accumulate many delegates in April. He will likely limp across the finish line at some point, but unless he cleans up his act will have a divided party to contend with (much to President Obama's advantage).
Santorum seems to have found new life and made a connection with social conservatives who make up a large block of voters especially in the Midwest and South where he may win if Newt continues to fade. His problem is going to be a lack of appeal to moderate voters who don't go to primaries, but who will vote in November. This issue with electability will be difficult for him to overcome. But he has a chance, albeit a slight one to at least gain enough delegates to deny a majority to Mitt.
Newt has had a bad...no, terrible few weeks, but vows to stay in until the bitter end. His hope now is to do well in states like the southern states that vote on Super Tuesday. Too bad he failed to make the ballot in Virginia (thus conceding it to Romney). Poor organization strikes yet again!
Ron Paul continues to excite young folks and will go to the convention with enough delegates to have some influence. And may announce for 2016 while he is at it...
There is now a break until February 28 - in the next few weeks I will post about the general election and where things may stand come November. Additionally, we will look at the likely reelection strategy of the President and watch closely as things evolve.
Onwards!
The Prof
After the debacle in South Carolina, Mitt Romney convincingly wins Florida (although loses many rural counties, a danger sign in some respects) and rolls as expected in Nevada. The Mittster is back on track for a day.
However two days later, Rick Santorum wins a stunning trifecta in Colorado (where a Romney win was expected), Missouri (55% of the vote, alas no delegates as it was just a "beauty contest") and Minnesota (you betcha!) where Mitt end up third behind Ron Paul. Mitt is back on his heals once again as he just can't close the deal with social conservatives who now appear to be flocking to the very culturally conservative (but probably unelectable) Santorum.
Oops, almost forgot about Newt. His campaign is nearly out of money and he placed badly in the last four contests. Does he have another resurrection? We shall see.
At the end of the day the delegate count is what matters. To win the GOP nomination a candidate must amass at least 1,144 delegates for a simple majority. To date, this is where the delegate count stands (courtesy of the Washington Post: Feb. 11, 2012).
Mitt 112
Santorum 72
Newt 32
Paul 9
Maine (24 del) is going to releasing its caucus results later today. On February 28 Michigan (30 del) and Arizona (29 del) are voting. Michigan has proportional delegate allocation and Arizona is winner-take all. On March 3 the Washington State Caucus (43 del) will occur. And then ten states (438 delegates at stake) (including the Prof's home state of Massachusetts) are voting on March 6 aka Super Tuesday.
So...this race is still Romney's to lose. He has more money and a much stronger organization than either Santorum of Newt. But he keeps stumbling and literally can't go for more than 48 hours without a gaffe of some sort. Mitt should win in the large state like NY and CA and accumulate many delegates in April. He will likely limp across the finish line at some point, but unless he cleans up his act will have a divided party to contend with (much to President Obama's advantage).
Santorum seems to have found new life and made a connection with social conservatives who make up a large block of voters especially in the Midwest and South where he may win if Newt continues to fade. His problem is going to be a lack of appeal to moderate voters who don't go to primaries, but who will vote in November. This issue with electability will be difficult for him to overcome. But he has a chance, albeit a slight one to at least gain enough delegates to deny a majority to Mitt.
Newt has had a bad...no, terrible few weeks, but vows to stay in until the bitter end. His hope now is to do well in states like the southern states that vote on Super Tuesday. Too bad he failed to make the ballot in Virginia (thus conceding it to Romney). Poor organization strikes yet again!
Ron Paul continues to excite young folks and will go to the convention with enough delegates to have some influence. And may announce for 2016 while he is at it...
There is now a break until February 28 - in the next few weeks I will post about the general election and where things may stand come November. Additionally, we will look at the likely reelection strategy of the President and watch closely as things evolve.
Onwards!
The Prof
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Mitt's terrible horrible very bad no good week...
South Carolina Shocker!
Mitt Romney's humiliating 13 point loss to Newt Gingrich last night has zero, count 'em zero silver linings for the former front runner.
Newt on the other hand has now fully emerged at the anti-establishment challenger to the Romney coronation, a coronation gone oh so wrong. Furthermore, Newt now leads Mitt in the delegate count - 25 to 14 with 1,119 needed to secure the nomination.
Santorum may sink into irreverentcy due to his disappointing finish and his voters could well be up for grabs. Although he did end up winning Iowa by 34 votes...yet another demerit against Mitt, Sant must be upset over the misreported results as it could have charted a different path for him had he been the winner in Iowa three weeks ago.
So, what happened in the Palmetto State last night??
Mitt
Romney effectively blew up his campaign in SC with the tax issue (he is getting TERRIBLE advice on this matter) and with sub par debate performances. He has played perfectly into the stereotype that he is the wealthy robber-baron with offshore money in the Cayman Islands. All we need is the Snidely Whiplash moustache.
More ominously, a majority of SC voters saw Newt as more electable. This is an advantage that Mitt has heretofore enjoyed in every survey.
Unfortunately his Mormonism also may have been a factor with some evangelical voters who made up 65% of the GOP primary vote.
Newt
He benefited from tremendous debate performances where he put the media on trial - this is red meat for conservative voters.
His feisty style overall resonated with SC voters...and they appear to have forgiven his many er, past moral transgressions. He is showing heart and passion, something conservatives are longing for in contrast with the buttoned-up Romney.
Newt won just about every GOP subgroup. If he can continue to do so he is very viable.
On to Florida and beyond...
Gingrich is now the real deal. Florida is voting in nine days. Expect Newt to raise a lot of money (he needs to, Mitt is flush with cash). Newt also has to organize quickly in order to turn the insurgent campaign into a truly national campaign. He also needs to show discipline and avoid going off track is he often does.
Mitt needs to show some passion and defend himself as a businessman. Oh yes, he must resolve the tax return issue, otherwise it may continue to hurt him. Expect him to be much more aggressive.
Florida is absolutely critical for both these candidates. If Romney loses here, the national Republican establishment will begin whispers of a new person to save the party (Newt has few fans in the inner circle). If he wins, he can breathe as the next contests in Nevada, Maine, and Missouri will have friendlier terrain for him - but only if he wins. Perception is reality. As I tell my students winning begets winning in politics and right now Newt is winning.
I am quite certain that President Obama and the Democrats are keeping close tabs on this and are enjoying the GOP split...however, the primary fight may make the eventual nominee stronger in the long run.
Onwards!
The Prof
Mitt Romney's humiliating 13 point loss to Newt Gingrich last night has zero, count 'em zero silver linings for the former front runner.
Newt on the other hand has now fully emerged at the anti-establishment challenger to the Romney coronation, a coronation gone oh so wrong. Furthermore, Newt now leads Mitt in the delegate count - 25 to 14 with 1,119 needed to secure the nomination.
Santorum may sink into irreverentcy due to his disappointing finish and his voters could well be up for grabs. Although he did end up winning Iowa by 34 votes...yet another demerit against Mitt, Sant must be upset over the misreported results as it could have charted a different path for him had he been the winner in Iowa three weeks ago.
So, what happened in the Palmetto State last night??
Mitt
Romney effectively blew up his campaign in SC with the tax issue (he is getting TERRIBLE advice on this matter) and with sub par debate performances. He has played perfectly into the stereotype that he is the wealthy robber-baron with offshore money in the Cayman Islands. All we need is the Snidely Whiplash moustache.
More ominously, a majority of SC voters saw Newt as more electable. This is an advantage that Mitt has heretofore enjoyed in every survey.
Unfortunately his Mormonism also may have been a factor with some evangelical voters who made up 65% of the GOP primary vote.
Newt
He benefited from tremendous debate performances where he put the media on trial - this is red meat for conservative voters.
His feisty style overall resonated with SC voters...and they appear to have forgiven his many er, past moral transgressions. He is showing heart and passion, something conservatives are longing for in contrast with the buttoned-up Romney.
Newt won just about every GOP subgroup. If he can continue to do so he is very viable.
On to Florida and beyond...
Gingrich is now the real deal. Florida is voting in nine days. Expect Newt to raise a lot of money (he needs to, Mitt is flush with cash). Newt also has to organize quickly in order to turn the insurgent campaign into a truly national campaign. He also needs to show discipline and avoid going off track is he often does.
Mitt needs to show some passion and defend himself as a businessman. Oh yes, he must resolve the tax return issue, otherwise it may continue to hurt him. Expect him to be much more aggressive.
Florida is absolutely critical for both these candidates. If Romney loses here, the national Republican establishment will begin whispers of a new person to save the party (Newt has few fans in the inner circle). If he wins, he can breathe as the next contests in Nevada, Maine, and Missouri will have friendlier terrain for him - but only if he wins. Perception is reality. As I tell my students winning begets winning in politics and right now Newt is winning.
I am quite certain that President Obama and the Democrats are keeping close tabs on this and are enjoying the GOP split...however, the primary fight may make the eventual nominee stronger in the long run.
Onwards!
The Prof
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NH post mortem
I did pretty darn well!!
Prediction Actual
Romney 38% 39%
Paul 24% 23%
Huntsman 17% 17%
Newt 10% 9%
Santorum 10% 9%
Perry 1% 1%
Decent win for Romney, even with his late gaffes and Bain Capital being raised as a campaign issue. Paul held his own and is looking for influence at the GOP convention. Newt and Sant are looking for a much-need breakthrough in SC a week from today. Perry is on life support...
Romney did well among almost all voters except for younger voters who went to Paul. Ironically conservative and tea party self identifiers still gave more votes to Mitt who continues to benefit from a split field.
More on the impending South Carolina Primary in a few days. Newt is going nuclear simply because he has to in order to have any viability. Super-Pacs galore...
Onwards!
The Prof
Prediction Actual
Romney 38% 39%
Paul 24% 23%
Huntsman 17% 17%
Newt 10% 9%
Santorum 10% 9%
Perry 1% 1%
Decent win for Romney, even with his late gaffes and Bain Capital being raised as a campaign issue. Paul held his own and is looking for influence at the GOP convention. Newt and Sant are looking for a much-need breakthrough in SC a week from today. Perry is on life support...
Romney did well among almost all voters except for younger voters who went to Paul. Ironically conservative and tea party self identifiers still gave more votes to Mitt who continues to benefit from a split field.
More on the impending South Carolina Primary in a few days. Newt is going nuclear simply because he has to in order to have any viability. Super-Pacs galore...
Onwards!
The Prof
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
NH 2012 Primary Predictions!
Here Goes!
Romney 38%
Paul 24%
Huntsman 17%
Newt 10%
Santorum 10%
Perry 1%
Expectations are very high for Mitt Romney. He has made a couple of notable gaffes (open mouth, insert foot, fuel perspectives that you are an out of touch robber-baron CEO...) over the past day and there has been a relentless attack on him from the other candidates. Mitt would like to win by 20 points, but that will be a challenge as multiple polls are showing him losing some ground this week.
NH's strong libertarian/contrarian streak will help Ron Paul. He has a very dedicated core of supporters and crossover Independent votes will give Paul a strong showing. Paul will do well and I would be very surprised if he is not a strong second.
Huntsman has been practically living in NH over the past year and will come in third, but this is likely his personal Waterloo. Ironic, as he may be the most electable Republican in terms of appealing to moderates and independents, but the primary system works against him in almost all states. Most of his voters are interchangeable with Romney ideologically .
Newt and Santorum will be in a fight for fourth place. My guess is that Newt barely pulls it out. Newt is really looking at SC in several days to reignite his campaign, but placing in the top four is critical for him.
Santorum's numbers did bounce up earlier this week, but have settled back down. He will have trouble doing well in socially moderate NH and like Newt is focused on SC. But he may surprise...
The unknown factor of course is how Independent voters go to - especially as there is no competitive Democratic primary to compete.
Do Romney's late gaffes hurt him badly or are they lost in the plethora of soundbites?
Will the negative ads on Romney and Bain Capital make his soft support wither?
Does the anti-Mitt vote continue to split four ways or does it start to coalesce? If the vote ends up being close Romney could well suffer a collapse elsewhere. Romney's organization is powerful in NH and will win, but the expectations game is what is important going forward.
Stay tuned! The Prof will be tuned to the results all evening...
Onwards!
The Prof
Romney 38%
Paul 24%
Huntsman 17%
Newt 10%
Santorum 10%
Perry 1%
Expectations are very high for Mitt Romney. He has made a couple of notable gaffes (open mouth, insert foot, fuel perspectives that you are an out of touch robber-baron CEO...) over the past day and there has been a relentless attack on him from the other candidates. Mitt would like to win by 20 points, but that will be a challenge as multiple polls are showing him losing some ground this week.
NH's strong libertarian/contrarian streak will help Ron Paul. He has a very dedicated core of supporters and crossover Independent votes will give Paul a strong showing. Paul will do well and I would be very surprised if he is not a strong second.
Huntsman has been practically living in NH over the past year and will come in third, but this is likely his personal Waterloo. Ironic, as he may be the most electable Republican in terms of appealing to moderates and independents, but the primary system works against him in almost all states. Most of his voters are interchangeable with Romney ideologically .
Newt and Santorum will be in a fight for fourth place. My guess is that Newt barely pulls it out. Newt is really looking at SC in several days to reignite his campaign, but placing in the top four is critical for him.
Santorum's numbers did bounce up earlier this week, but have settled back down. He will have trouble doing well in socially moderate NH and like Newt is focused on SC. But he may surprise...
The unknown factor of course is how Independent voters go to - especially as there is no competitive Democratic primary to compete.
Do Romney's late gaffes hurt him badly or are they lost in the plethora of soundbites?
Will the negative ads on Romney and Bain Capital make his soft support wither?
Does the anti-Mitt vote continue to split four ways or does it start to coalesce? If the vote ends up being close Romney could well suffer a collapse elsewhere. Romney's organization is powerful in NH and will win, but the expectations game is what is important going forward.
Stay tuned! The Prof will be tuned to the results all evening...
Onwards!
The Prof
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Iowa 2012 wrap-up
Lets see how I did...
The Prof's Prediction Actual 2012 IA Results
Mitt 24% Mitt 24%
Paul 22% Santorum 24%
Santorum 15% Paul 22%
Newt 12% Newt 13%
Perry 11% Perry 10%
Bachman 7% Bachman 5%
Not too bad in terms of order, however I greatly underestimated Santorum's surge during the last week of the campaign. It seems that he may end up as the anti-Mitt simply because there are not any alternatives left.
Bear in mind that the Iowa Caucuses are really a statewide straw poll and that delegates (which really matters) will not be allocated for several weeks.
Romney's landslide 8-vote victory is both an over and under performance depending on your perspective and spin. He had a ceiling in Iowa and was not able to exceed it. However a win is a win however narrow and Mitt is glad to have escaped with one. Much of his win is due to organization, $$, and being perceived as the candidate most able to beat President Obama in November. Additionally campaigning for the presidency since 2007 didn't hurt...
Rick Santorum was the real story out of Iowa. Evangelical Christians (a powerful block in Iowa) appeared to have rallied around him over the last few days. His strong finish has yielded strong post-Iowa fundraising and has also focused media attention on him. However, with attention comes increased scrutiny and it is unclear as to how he handles this.
Ron Paul finished strongly, but as stated before may have had his high water mark. He will not be nominated and was the "protest" candidate, drawing many independents. However, his supporters will be critical for the eventual nominee. His candidacy clearly has appeal to libertarian-minded voters - socially liberal, economically conservative and non-interventionist.
Newt had a most disappointing evening and seems to have embarked on a mission to take Mitt down. There has been some speculation that he may try to reach some sort of alliance with Santorum although I have a hard time seeing how this would work logistically.
Rick Perry underperformed and there is continuing speculation that his candidacy is on life support, but he has the money to continue for some time.
Adios Michelle Bachman...a rapid fall from grace and the Ames straw poll victory a few months ago.
Romney needs lower tier candidates, especially Perry to stay in the race when it moves to SC and FL later this month. A continued split in the anti-Romney vote is crucial to him wrapping up the nomination by early March. If Santorum establishes himself as the chief conservative competitor this race may go far deeper into the year.
My money is still on Romney to win this, but he need to do well in SC and win FL for this to wrap up. Otherwise we may see a repeat of the Obama-Hillary contest which was not truly decided until June of 2008. A weak Romney performance will funnel money and support to Santorum (who I think will emerge as the chief competitor.)
NH predictions will be posted in the next day.
Onwards!
The Prof
The Prof's Prediction Actual 2012 IA Results
Mitt 24% Mitt 24%
Paul 22% Santorum 24%
Santorum 15% Paul 22%
Newt 12% Newt 13%
Perry 11% Perry 10%
Bachman 7% Bachman 5%
Not too bad in terms of order, however I greatly underestimated Santorum's surge during the last week of the campaign. It seems that he may end up as the anti-Mitt simply because there are not any alternatives left.
Bear in mind that the Iowa Caucuses are really a statewide straw poll and that delegates (which really matters) will not be allocated for several weeks.
Romney's landslide 8-vote victory is both an over and under performance depending on your perspective and spin. He had a ceiling in Iowa and was not able to exceed it. However a win is a win however narrow and Mitt is glad to have escaped with one. Much of his win is due to organization, $$, and being perceived as the candidate most able to beat President Obama in November. Additionally campaigning for the presidency since 2007 didn't hurt...
Rick Santorum was the real story out of Iowa. Evangelical Christians (a powerful block in Iowa) appeared to have rallied around him over the last few days. His strong finish has yielded strong post-Iowa fundraising and has also focused media attention on him. However, with attention comes increased scrutiny and it is unclear as to how he handles this.
Ron Paul finished strongly, but as stated before may have had his high water mark. He will not be nominated and was the "protest" candidate, drawing many independents. However, his supporters will be critical for the eventual nominee. His candidacy clearly has appeal to libertarian-minded voters - socially liberal, economically conservative and non-interventionist.
Newt had a most disappointing evening and seems to have embarked on a mission to take Mitt down. There has been some speculation that he may try to reach some sort of alliance with Santorum although I have a hard time seeing how this would work logistically.
Rick Perry underperformed and there is continuing speculation that his candidacy is on life support, but he has the money to continue for some time.
Adios Michelle Bachman...a rapid fall from grace and the Ames straw poll victory a few months ago.
Romney needs lower tier candidates, especially Perry to stay in the race when it moves to SC and FL later this month. A continued split in the anti-Romney vote is crucial to him wrapping up the nomination by early March. If Santorum establishes himself as the chief conservative competitor this race may go far deeper into the year.
My money is still on Romney to win this, but he need to do well in SC and win FL for this to wrap up. Otherwise we may see a repeat of the Obama-Hillary contest which was not truly decided until June of 2008. A weak Romney performance will funnel money and support to Santorum (who I think will emerge as the chief competitor.)
NH predictions will be posted in the next day.
Onwards!
The Prof
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Merry New Year - Iowa Eve
Ok, here goes - The final Des Moines Register Poll results are as follows:
Mitt 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum 15%
Newt 12%
Perry 11%
Bachman 7%
Remember, the margin of error is almost 5% so this can mean that Mitt, Paul, and Santorum all have a shot at this.
Key things to watch:
The Prof's final prediction based on polling, insight and (mostly) gut feel:
Romney 26%
Paul 23%
Santorum 20%
Perry 11%
Newt 9%
Bachman 9%
Huntsman 2%
Onwards!
The Prof
Mitt 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum 15%
Newt 12%
Perry 11%
Bachman 7%
Remember, the margin of error is almost 5% so this can mean that Mitt, Paul, and Santorum all have a shot at this.
Key things to watch:
- Organization: key in Iowa as caucus turnout is relatively low. This benefits Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. Even several hundred votes can make a difference.
- Do social conservatives rally around a "Mitt alternative"? This explains much of Santorum's rise in the past week. Mitt's advantage is that conservatives have yet to gravitate to one candidate. In this scenario, one can win and have media momentum with a quarter of the vote. Remember, Obama only beat Hillary by a few pints in Iowa in 2008.
- Is there a barrage of negative advertising, a verbal slip, or other unforeseen event that can change this very fluid race?
- Weather - the better the weather the higher the turnout. Could be an opening for candidates with poorer organization.
The Prof's final prediction based on polling, insight and (mostly) gut feel:
Romney 26%
Paul 23%
Santorum 20%
Perry 11%
Newt 9%
Bachman 9%
Huntsman 2%
Onwards!
The Prof
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