Here Goes!
Romney 38%
Paul 24%
Huntsman 17%
Newt 10%
Santorum 10%
Perry 1%
Expectations are very high for Mitt Romney. He has made a couple of notable gaffes (open mouth, insert foot, fuel perspectives that you are an out of touch robber-baron CEO...) over the past day and there has been a relentless attack on him from the other candidates. Mitt would like to win by 20 points, but that will be a challenge as multiple polls are showing him losing some ground this week.
NH's strong libertarian/contrarian streak will help Ron Paul. He has a very dedicated core of supporters and crossover Independent votes will give Paul a strong showing. Paul will do well and I would be very surprised if he is not a strong second.
Huntsman has been practically living in NH over the past year and will come in third, but this is likely his personal Waterloo. Ironic, as he may be the most electable Republican in terms of appealing to moderates and independents, but the primary system works against him in almost all states. Most of his voters are interchangeable with Romney ideologically .
Newt and Santorum will be in a fight for fourth place. My guess is that Newt barely pulls it out. Newt is really looking at SC in several days to reignite his campaign, but placing in the top four is critical for him.
Santorum's numbers did bounce up earlier this week, but have settled back down. He will have trouble doing well in socially moderate NH and like Newt is focused on SC. But he may surprise...
The unknown factor of course is how Independent voters go to - especially as there is no competitive Democratic primary to compete.
Do Romney's late gaffes hurt him badly or are they lost in the plethora of soundbites?
Will the negative ads on Romney and Bain Capital make his soft support wither?
Does the anti-Mitt vote continue to split four ways or does it start to coalesce? If the vote ends up being close Romney could well suffer a collapse elsewhere. Romney's organization is powerful in NH and will win, but the expectations game is what is important going forward.
Stay tuned! The Prof will be tuned to the results all evening...
Onwards!
The Prof
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Iowa 2012 wrap-up
Lets see how I did...
The Prof's Prediction Actual 2012 IA Results
Mitt 24% Mitt 24%
Paul 22% Santorum 24%
Santorum 15% Paul 22%
Newt 12% Newt 13%
Perry 11% Perry 10%
Bachman 7% Bachman 5%
Not too bad in terms of order, however I greatly underestimated Santorum's surge during the last week of the campaign. It seems that he may end up as the anti-Mitt simply because there are not any alternatives left.
Bear in mind that the Iowa Caucuses are really a statewide straw poll and that delegates (which really matters) will not be allocated for several weeks.
Romney's landslide 8-vote victory is both an over and under performance depending on your perspective and spin. He had a ceiling in Iowa and was not able to exceed it. However a win is a win however narrow and Mitt is glad to have escaped with one. Much of his win is due to organization, $$, and being perceived as the candidate most able to beat President Obama in November. Additionally campaigning for the presidency since 2007 didn't hurt...
Rick Santorum was the real story out of Iowa. Evangelical Christians (a powerful block in Iowa) appeared to have rallied around him over the last few days. His strong finish has yielded strong post-Iowa fundraising and has also focused media attention on him. However, with attention comes increased scrutiny and it is unclear as to how he handles this.
Ron Paul finished strongly, but as stated before may have had his high water mark. He will not be nominated and was the "protest" candidate, drawing many independents. However, his supporters will be critical for the eventual nominee. His candidacy clearly has appeal to libertarian-minded voters - socially liberal, economically conservative and non-interventionist.
Newt had a most disappointing evening and seems to have embarked on a mission to take Mitt down. There has been some speculation that he may try to reach some sort of alliance with Santorum although I have a hard time seeing how this would work logistically.
Rick Perry underperformed and there is continuing speculation that his candidacy is on life support, but he has the money to continue for some time.
Adios Michelle Bachman...a rapid fall from grace and the Ames straw poll victory a few months ago.
Romney needs lower tier candidates, especially Perry to stay in the race when it moves to SC and FL later this month. A continued split in the anti-Romney vote is crucial to him wrapping up the nomination by early March. If Santorum establishes himself as the chief conservative competitor this race may go far deeper into the year.
My money is still on Romney to win this, but he need to do well in SC and win FL for this to wrap up. Otherwise we may see a repeat of the Obama-Hillary contest which was not truly decided until June of 2008. A weak Romney performance will funnel money and support to Santorum (who I think will emerge as the chief competitor.)
NH predictions will be posted in the next day.
Onwards!
The Prof
The Prof's Prediction Actual 2012 IA Results
Mitt 24% Mitt 24%
Paul 22% Santorum 24%
Santorum 15% Paul 22%
Newt 12% Newt 13%
Perry 11% Perry 10%
Bachman 7% Bachman 5%
Not too bad in terms of order, however I greatly underestimated Santorum's surge during the last week of the campaign. It seems that he may end up as the anti-Mitt simply because there are not any alternatives left.
Bear in mind that the Iowa Caucuses are really a statewide straw poll and that delegates (which really matters) will not be allocated for several weeks.
Romney's landslide 8-vote victory is both an over and under performance depending on your perspective and spin. He had a ceiling in Iowa and was not able to exceed it. However a win is a win however narrow and Mitt is glad to have escaped with one. Much of his win is due to organization, $$, and being perceived as the candidate most able to beat President Obama in November. Additionally campaigning for the presidency since 2007 didn't hurt...
Rick Santorum was the real story out of Iowa. Evangelical Christians (a powerful block in Iowa) appeared to have rallied around him over the last few days. His strong finish has yielded strong post-Iowa fundraising and has also focused media attention on him. However, with attention comes increased scrutiny and it is unclear as to how he handles this.
Ron Paul finished strongly, but as stated before may have had his high water mark. He will not be nominated and was the "protest" candidate, drawing many independents. However, his supporters will be critical for the eventual nominee. His candidacy clearly has appeal to libertarian-minded voters - socially liberal, economically conservative and non-interventionist.
Newt had a most disappointing evening and seems to have embarked on a mission to take Mitt down. There has been some speculation that he may try to reach some sort of alliance with Santorum although I have a hard time seeing how this would work logistically.
Rick Perry underperformed and there is continuing speculation that his candidacy is on life support, but he has the money to continue for some time.
Adios Michelle Bachman...a rapid fall from grace and the Ames straw poll victory a few months ago.
Romney needs lower tier candidates, especially Perry to stay in the race when it moves to SC and FL later this month. A continued split in the anti-Romney vote is crucial to him wrapping up the nomination by early March. If Santorum establishes himself as the chief conservative competitor this race may go far deeper into the year.
My money is still on Romney to win this, but he need to do well in SC and win FL for this to wrap up. Otherwise we may see a repeat of the Obama-Hillary contest which was not truly decided until June of 2008. A weak Romney performance will funnel money and support to Santorum (who I think will emerge as the chief competitor.)
NH predictions will be posted in the next day.
Onwards!
The Prof
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Merry New Year - Iowa Eve
Ok, here goes - The final Des Moines Register Poll results are as follows:
Mitt 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum 15%
Newt 12%
Perry 11%
Bachman 7%
Remember, the margin of error is almost 5% so this can mean that Mitt, Paul, and Santorum all have a shot at this.
Key things to watch:
The Prof's final prediction based on polling, insight and (mostly) gut feel:
Romney 26%
Paul 23%
Santorum 20%
Perry 11%
Newt 9%
Bachman 9%
Huntsman 2%
Onwards!
The Prof
Mitt 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum 15%
Newt 12%
Perry 11%
Bachman 7%
Remember, the margin of error is almost 5% so this can mean that Mitt, Paul, and Santorum all have a shot at this.
Key things to watch:
- Organization: key in Iowa as caucus turnout is relatively low. This benefits Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. Even several hundred votes can make a difference.
- Do social conservatives rally around a "Mitt alternative"? This explains much of Santorum's rise in the past week. Mitt's advantage is that conservatives have yet to gravitate to one candidate. In this scenario, one can win and have media momentum with a quarter of the vote. Remember, Obama only beat Hillary by a few pints in Iowa in 2008.
- Is there a barrage of negative advertising, a verbal slip, or other unforeseen event that can change this very fluid race?
- Weather - the better the weather the higher the turnout. Could be an opening for candidates with poorer organization.
The Prof's final prediction based on polling, insight and (mostly) gut feel:
Romney 26%
Paul 23%
Santorum 20%
Perry 11%
Newt 9%
Bachman 9%
Huntsman 2%
Onwards!
The Prof
Merry New Year - Quick Recap
Well, finals are over, grades are in, and holidays are over - so back to some long-overdue writing about my favorite topic...
Lots going on, a quick recap and some lessons:
The Prof
Lots going on, a quick recap and some lessons:
- The demise of Cain and 9-9-9. Personal life "affairs" do matter!
- The rise and apparent fall of Newt. Negative attacks coupled with old baggage and likely un-electability will usually sink a campaign. Newts also made several controversial statements about the Executive and Legislative branches being able to veto Court decisions (contrary to Civics 101) and saying his nomination was inevitable was seen as arrogant by many. Also, the GOP Establishment worked overtime to deflate him as suburban independent female voters simply will not vote for him in November.
- Ron Paul - he will never be nominated, but is an effective protest vehicle for many. Neo-isolationism will not play over the long haul though and the Party will pull strings to stop him if he is seen as upsetting the apple cart. Worst case scenario for the GOP: Does Paul mount an independent run in November...
- Rick Perry - looking good on paper does not translate into an effective campaign or a particularly attractive candidate outside of the Texas Republic.
- Michelle Bachman - just not ready for prime time, core of supporters is too narrow and high profile misstatements have damaged her campaign. May be really running for Veep at this point.
- Ric Santorum - may well surprise in Iowa (more on this in the following post) and could emerge as the anti-Mitt flavor of the week.
- Mitt - slow, steady, controlled, and professional. Can't get over 25%, but this may be enough for the long haul. Finacial advantage and organization is huge!
The Prof
Saturday, November 12, 2011
To Mitt or Not To Mitt...oops!
Hi all,
After a far too long hiatus (busy teaching my classes this fall) it is time for an update on the Republican primary.
When we last looked at the race, Rick Perry had just jumped in and Herman Cain's candidacy was seen as not meriting much media time. How things have changed...and stayed the same!
First Governor Perry: He has consistently failed to impress many in the Republican electorate who initially had high hopes for his candidacy. After all, he is a long serving governor of a state which seems to have suffered less during the recession and is a true conservative (oh, except for immigration).
Perry's 52 second "oops moment" of a couple of nights ago apart from providing great fodder for late night comics may well be a political death knell. His stock was already falling based upon poor debate performance and a number of misstatements. The style and demeanor of Perry, while positive for Tea Party activists leaves a lot of voters in the cold. When I saw him speak in NH back in August, I simply was not impressed with him and nothing has occurred to change my perceptions. We all have "oops moments" (my students can attest to that!) but having one on a national stage like this does raise legitimate questions about his preparedness and thus his electability.
What Perry does have going for him is a significant amount of money banked and he is launching a widespread TV/radio ad campaign in early caucus and primary states. Although I see his chances for the nomination as poor, he can still recover if the electorate coalesces around him as the "anti-Mitt" and forgives his sins on immigration and his err, "speaking skills". However, most voters will likely see him as a regional and weak general election candidate who may win traditional Republican groups against President Obama, but won't turn on suburban independents in the Midwest.
Herman Cain has been a shooting star. His folksy style and simple 9-9-9 (say that five times fast) plan has attracted a lot of support and many conservatives in the party have unwaveringly defended his lapses on foreign policy and the recent sexual harassment allegations. Cain seems to be surviving this tempest so far (polling is still strong) but the momentum has stalled.
As a candidate, Cain is very likable, contrasts sharply with frontrunner Romney, and is a down-the-line conservative who is attractive to Tea Party folks. However, questions regarding of his lack of depth on foreign policy and his very poor handling of the harassment allegations (regardless of if the charges have merit) has placed a tremendous weight on his campaign. I see him staying in the race as his core supporters don't seemed particularly troubled and the new strategy of attacking the media energies his fans as many don't trust the dreaded main-stream media anyway. Will he leave the race over these allegations? As Herman says "Ain't gonna happen!"
Newt Gingrich has truly surprised me. As Speaker of the House he resigned under a cloud of uncertainly in 1998 and his political career seemed finished. He has since been writing and traveling in conservative circles and announced a very long-shot campaign about a year ago. Much of his campaign staff quit last spring (many joined with Perry), but in the past two weeks buoyed by solid debate performances and with the withering of Perry and Cain, Newt may be the anti-Mitt flavor of the month... Or perhaps much longer as there are few other candidates left who have the ability and money to run a nationwide campaign. Gingrich is probably the smartest man on the stage and has been described as having many ideas, but some of them can be "really out there."
On the negative side of the ledger, Gingrich has had many past issues with his family life that social conservatives may have issues with. Additionally, he has been criticized for taking money as a lobbyist over the past few years and opposition research will have a ball with his record. I do not see him as an electable nominee next year, but he may well emerge as Romney's most serious rival as party activists like most of what he says. We shall see if this contiunes in the next few weeks.
This leaves Mitt Romney who continues to chug along. He can't seem to break 25% in national polls, but maintains a wide lead in New Hampshire. National polls do not mean a lot at this stage in the race; remember this nomination will be won state by state.
Mitt's problem is that a lot of Republicans, especially conservatives continue to look for some alternative. After all, he did sign the health reform law in Massachusetts as governor. And yes, much of the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare) is based off of this law - see the individual mandate for starters. Additionally, he has a history of "evolving" on issues which is heresy for many conservatives. He is the establishment candidate in a very anti-establishment year. Rush Limbaugh seems to truly despise him and that is a problem for him in the primaries, although this could be an asset in November. Being tied to the Tea Party is probably a negative in the general election.
What Romney has going for him are continued solid debate performances, a lot of money on hand, organization, and he appears the most "presidential" of the candidates on the stage. He is never going to excite conservatives which may be detrimental as intensity matters in ginning up the turnout next November, but at this point I believe is still the likely nominee. Romney continues to benefit as Perry, Cain, Bachman, and Newt are all scrambling for the same voters.
The anti-Mitt, anti-establishment sentiment has yet to coalesce around any one candidate and as long as no plausible alternative candidate can capture these party activists, Romney's appeal to Independents who can vote in the NH Primary should be enough to give him an early lead one the voting begins. He needs to be concerned with South Carolina and other Southern states that may give a boost to Cain or Perry. I anticipate him trying to win big victories in the more "moderate" primary states and hoping that the Tea Party vote continues to split in states where he would fare poorly in a one on one contest.
The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for January 3. The NH Primary is January 10. We are now in the end run of the invisible primary which began in November 2008.
By the way, only 361 Days until Election 2012...Onwards!!
The Prof
After a far too long hiatus (busy teaching my classes this fall) it is time for an update on the Republican primary.
When we last looked at the race, Rick Perry had just jumped in and Herman Cain's candidacy was seen as not meriting much media time. How things have changed...and stayed the same!
First Governor Perry: He has consistently failed to impress many in the Republican electorate who initially had high hopes for his candidacy. After all, he is a long serving governor of a state which seems to have suffered less during the recession and is a true conservative (oh, except for immigration).
Perry's 52 second "oops moment" of a couple of nights ago apart from providing great fodder for late night comics may well be a political death knell. His stock was already falling based upon poor debate performance and a number of misstatements. The style and demeanor of Perry, while positive for Tea Party activists leaves a lot of voters in the cold. When I saw him speak in NH back in August, I simply was not impressed with him and nothing has occurred to change my perceptions. We all have "oops moments" (my students can attest to that!) but having one on a national stage like this does raise legitimate questions about his preparedness and thus his electability.
What Perry does have going for him is a significant amount of money banked and he is launching a widespread TV/radio ad campaign in early caucus and primary states. Although I see his chances for the nomination as poor, he can still recover if the electorate coalesces around him as the "anti-Mitt" and forgives his sins on immigration and his err, "speaking skills". However, most voters will likely see him as a regional and weak general election candidate who may win traditional Republican groups against President Obama, but won't turn on suburban independents in the Midwest.
Herman Cain has been a shooting star. His folksy style and simple 9-9-9 (say that five times fast) plan has attracted a lot of support and many conservatives in the party have unwaveringly defended his lapses on foreign policy and the recent sexual harassment allegations. Cain seems to be surviving this tempest so far (polling is still strong) but the momentum has stalled.
As a candidate, Cain is very likable, contrasts sharply with frontrunner Romney, and is a down-the-line conservative who is attractive to Tea Party folks. However, questions regarding of his lack of depth on foreign policy and his very poor handling of the harassment allegations (regardless of if the charges have merit) has placed a tremendous weight on his campaign. I see him staying in the race as his core supporters don't seemed particularly troubled and the new strategy of attacking the media energies his fans as many don't trust the dreaded main-stream media anyway. Will he leave the race over these allegations? As Herman says "Ain't gonna happen!"
Newt Gingrich has truly surprised me. As Speaker of the House he resigned under a cloud of uncertainly in 1998 and his political career seemed finished. He has since been writing and traveling in conservative circles and announced a very long-shot campaign about a year ago. Much of his campaign staff quit last spring (many joined with Perry), but in the past two weeks buoyed by solid debate performances and with the withering of Perry and Cain, Newt may be the anti-Mitt flavor of the month... Or perhaps much longer as there are few other candidates left who have the ability and money to run a nationwide campaign. Gingrich is probably the smartest man on the stage and has been described as having many ideas, but some of them can be "really out there."
On the negative side of the ledger, Gingrich has had many past issues with his family life that social conservatives may have issues with. Additionally, he has been criticized for taking money as a lobbyist over the past few years and opposition research will have a ball with his record. I do not see him as an electable nominee next year, but he may well emerge as Romney's most serious rival as party activists like most of what he says. We shall see if this contiunes in the next few weeks.
This leaves Mitt Romney who continues to chug along. He can't seem to break 25% in national polls, but maintains a wide lead in New Hampshire. National polls do not mean a lot at this stage in the race; remember this nomination will be won state by state.
Mitt's problem is that a lot of Republicans, especially conservatives continue to look for some alternative. After all, he did sign the health reform law in Massachusetts as governor. And yes, much of the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare) is based off of this law - see the individual mandate for starters. Additionally, he has a history of "evolving" on issues which is heresy for many conservatives. He is the establishment candidate in a very anti-establishment year. Rush Limbaugh seems to truly despise him and that is a problem for him in the primaries, although this could be an asset in November. Being tied to the Tea Party is probably a negative in the general election.
What Romney has going for him are continued solid debate performances, a lot of money on hand, organization, and he appears the most "presidential" of the candidates on the stage. He is never going to excite conservatives which may be detrimental as intensity matters in ginning up the turnout next November, but at this point I believe is still the likely nominee. Romney continues to benefit as Perry, Cain, Bachman, and Newt are all scrambling for the same voters.
The anti-Mitt, anti-establishment sentiment has yet to coalesce around any one candidate and as long as no plausible alternative candidate can capture these party activists, Romney's appeal to Independents who can vote in the NH Primary should be enough to give him an early lead one the voting begins. He needs to be concerned with South Carolina and other Southern states that may give a boost to Cain or Perry. I anticipate him trying to win big victories in the more "moderate" primary states and hoping that the Tea Party vote continues to split in states where he would fare poorly in a one on one contest.
The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for January 3. The NH Primary is January 10. We are now in the end run of the invisible primary which began in November 2008.
By the way, only 361 Days until Election 2012...Onwards!!
The Prof
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Rick Perry - Early Take
With a Texas-sized splash, Lone Star State Governor Rick Perry has officially jumped into the primary race and has vaulted to the top position if you believe the early polls (BTW polling at this stage is directional, but don't read too much into them yet).
Pros: Ability to connect with party faithful, appeal in socially conservative Iowa and South Carolina, executive experience, Texas has record of job creation during the recession, very charismatic, good at throwing "red meat" to tea party activists, will raise boku $$, has played the election game without losing for 20 years
Cons: close your eyes and he sounds like George W. Bush, gaffe-prone, evangelical religious conservatism may not play well outside of socially conservative states, statements alluding to state secession and extremism libertarian view of government makes electability an issue, Texas has multiple issues with poverty, education, and poor access to healthcare
Odds for the nomination: Actually quite good if he avoids gaffes and can show electability. Romney will be his main competition, although he has to guard his flank against Bachmann.
Perry has a real shot at this and if he polishes his act and appears presidential (as opposed to simply rhetorical and theatrical) he may well outlast Romney. He will do poorly in NH, but should do very well in delegate-rich southern and midwestern states. What he needs to watch are statements that get him in trouble (Ben Bernake take note) and an image of a good 'ol boy. His campaign skills will serve him well if he can remake his image.
Onwards!
The Prof
Pros: Ability to connect with party faithful, appeal in socially conservative Iowa and South Carolina, executive experience, Texas has record of job creation during the recession, very charismatic, good at throwing "red meat" to tea party activists, will raise boku $$, has played the election game without losing for 20 years
Cons: close your eyes and he sounds like George W. Bush, gaffe-prone, evangelical religious conservatism may not play well outside of socially conservative states, statements alluding to state secession and extremism libertarian view of government makes electability an issue, Texas has multiple issues with poverty, education, and poor access to healthcare
Odds for the nomination: Actually quite good if he avoids gaffes and can show electability. Romney will be his main competition, although he has to guard his flank against Bachmann.
Perry has a real shot at this and if he polishes his act and appears presidential (as opposed to simply rhetorical and theatrical) he may well outlast Romney. He will do poorly in NH, but should do very well in delegate-rich southern and midwestern states. What he needs to watch are statements that get him in trouble (Ben Bernake take note) and an image of a good 'ol boy. His campaign skills will serve him well if he can remake his image.
Onwards!
The Prof
September 2011 - Brief Assessment
Well, September 2011 is here and a lot has been happening with the Republican presidential candidates.
Right now, conventional wisdom says that it looks like a Rick Perry vs. Mitt Romney race with Michele Bachmann being a possible dark horse. This is a correct assessment to some extent, but a lot can happen to rearrange candidate positions going into Iowa, New Hampshire, and beyond.
Emergence of Additional Candidates
Obviously Sarah Palin comes to mind. Her entry would create a huge splash and ironically, would help Romney by splitting conservative support three ways with Bachmann and Perry. She would be an instant celebrity candidate with the ability to raise a lot of money. However, my instinct says that she does not run in 2012. (I though Hillary was going to win in 2008 as well, so my instinct can be very wrong!)
Other candidates who are considering jumping in at this late state are former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani. NJ Governor Chris Christi is under pressure to run as well, although this is unlikely.
Recent polls have shown that Republican primary voters are by and large satisfied with the current crop of candidates. However, there is still room for another candidate or two.
Self Destruction of Existing Candidates
Both Perry and Bachmann are running into issues with high profile media gaffes. Perry's book has a number of politically controversial positions that could maim his candidacy as well. With so many microphones and video cameras tracking their every waking move candidates are bound to make mistakes. They need to avoid major gaffes that will come to define them.
Candidates Emerging From the Back of the Pack
A candidate like Huntsman (I happened to see him speak last week) could conceivably make a run if frontrunners begin to self destruct., However this is an unlikely to happen. Newt Gingrich simply ain't going to happen either!
One thing that may decide what happens in next year's primaries is that Republicans need a candidate who can beat President Obama. I foresee electability of becoming a larger issue as time draws closer. This would likely help Romney, but is he too radioactive among conservatives who dominate the primaries? Can Perry win over middle class northern suburbanites in a general election?
But remember that polling several months before the primaries is an inexact science at best. Just ask presidents Rudy Giuliani, Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton...
Onwards!
The Prof
Right now, conventional wisdom says that it looks like a Rick Perry vs. Mitt Romney race with Michele Bachmann being a possible dark horse. This is a correct assessment to some extent, but a lot can happen to rearrange candidate positions going into Iowa, New Hampshire, and beyond.
Emergence of Additional Candidates
Obviously Sarah Palin comes to mind. Her entry would create a huge splash and ironically, would help Romney by splitting conservative support three ways with Bachmann and Perry. She would be an instant celebrity candidate with the ability to raise a lot of money. However, my instinct says that she does not run in 2012. (I though Hillary was going to win in 2008 as well, so my instinct can be very wrong!)
Other candidates who are considering jumping in at this late state are former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani. NJ Governor Chris Christi is under pressure to run as well, although this is unlikely.
Recent polls have shown that Republican primary voters are by and large satisfied with the current crop of candidates. However, there is still room for another candidate or two.
Self Destruction of Existing Candidates
Both Perry and Bachmann are running into issues with high profile media gaffes. Perry's book has a number of politically controversial positions that could maim his candidacy as well. With so many microphones and video cameras tracking their every waking move candidates are bound to make mistakes. They need to avoid major gaffes that will come to define them.
Candidates Emerging From the Back of the Pack
A candidate like Huntsman (I happened to see him speak last week) could conceivably make a run if frontrunners begin to self destruct., However this is an unlikely to happen. Newt Gingrich simply ain't going to happen either!
One thing that may decide what happens in next year's primaries is that Republicans need a candidate who can beat President Obama. I foresee electability of becoming a larger issue as time draws closer. This would likely help Romney, but is he too radioactive among conservatives who dominate the primaries? Can Perry win over middle class northern suburbanites in a general election?
But remember that polling several months before the primaries is an inexact science at best. Just ask presidents Rudy Giuliani, Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton...
Onwards!
The Prof
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