Lets see how I did on the predictions...
Boston Mayor
Prediction: Menino: 61 Flaherty: 39
Actual: Menino 57, Flaherty 43
Not too far off, though Flaherty ran a closer race than I thought...if Flaherty had more money to advertise who knows....Actually, Menino just was not beatable, but this may well be his last term. He will be 70 in 2013 and Flaherty may make another run at this. Bostonians just like their mayors and were not ready to change things up.
Virginia Governor
Prediction: McDonnell (R) 54 Deeds (D) 46
Actual: McDonnell 59 Deeds 41
Big win for the Republicans and more ominously for President Obama who had campaigned for Deeds; Independents swung back toward the Republican Candidates in The Old Dominion and counties that went for Obama in 2008 did not support Deeds in 2009. Of course this was not a referendum on the president, but it could be an early sign of discontent with his perceived "overreaching" on a number of issues..
NJ Governor
Prediction: Corzine (D) 45 Christi (R) 43 Daggett (I) 12
Actual: Christi 49, Corzine 45, Daggett 6
I was wrong, but I did call it a toss-up...Bigger win for Republicans as NJ is a pretty deep shade of blue. The general loathing of Corzine by many voters and the fading of Daggett's independent run propelled Christi to the Governor's mansion. The economy and corruption were major issues and Christi won big among men and independents. Another warning bell for the president as he campaigned heavily for Corzine.
NY, 23rd District
Prediction: Hoffman (C) 44 Owens (D) 38 Scozzafava (R) 18
Actual: Owens 49 Hoffman 45 (D) 38 Scozzafava 5
I missed this one. The intra-party warfare of the local Republicans enabled the Democrats to pick up a long-time Republican seat. Also, credit Owens and his organization for getting out their voters. The battle between the Conservatives and Moderates in the Republican Party was openly waged here. I always tell my classes that a party has to have a "big tent" to be successful in the long run. In the Northeast, strict conservative Republicans simply do not play as well as they may in other parts of the nation. This district was Republican, but was not fertile hard-core conservative territory as far as I can tell.
So what does all this mean?
Incumbents did not fare particularly well with Corzine (who spent ridiculous amounts of money) going down. Mayor Bloomberg in NYC barely held on - someone calculated that he spend $166 on every vote he received. Even in Massachusetts, several incumbent mayors (Worcester, Lynn, Brockton) lost their seats. Could this be bad news for Governor Patrick...
Voters are very concerned with the state of the economy. If it does not turnaround there may well be a lot of political bloodletting with an angry electorate one year from now.
Turnout is key, many young voters who came out for Obama in VA and NJ did not come out this time around. Involved people are motivated voters.
Was this a referendum on President Obama? No, local issues and candidates typically dominate these elections, but the White House cannot be pleased with the turnout of events here. These results may force some course corrections in the administration as vulnerable Democrats (especially in red states) may not want to be tied to closely to the president in 2010.
Onwards to 2010...
The Prof
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Election Day 2009 Predictions
Ok - lets go out on a limb and see if I can nail the races that are coming up for tomorrow...
Boston Mayor
Menino wins over Flaherty/Yoon by a decent margin. Boston just likes him and he does have the job for life. His opponents are hoping for a Frank Skeffington Last Hurrah moment, but not this time.
Menino: 61
Flaherty: 39
Virginia Governor
This should be a relatively easy Republican pickup.
McDonnel (R) 54
Deeds (D) 46
NJ Governor
A very bitter race with an unpopular incumbent in Corzine, but a rather inept campaign by his opponent, The Republicans should have won this one, but an independent candidate siphoning nominally Republican votes and Democratic money flowing to this race should win it for Corzine. The polls have shown a dead heat all along so this is a bit of a coin toss...
Corzine (D) 45
Christi (R) 43
Daggett (I) 12
NY, 23rd District
Perhaps the most drama of any race, this was shaping up as a three-way race with the NY Conservative Party nominating a - well a conservative candidate in Hoffman against a very liberal Republican candidate in Scozzafava, with Owens carrying the Democratic banner. As the Republican candidate is quite liberal on a number of issues, many national conservatives urged support for Hoffman creating an intra-Republican split. On Friday of last week Scozzafava withdrew from the race and endorsed the the Democrat Owens. My sense on this is that Hoffman who has been ahead in the polls still wins this though.
Hoffman (C) 44
Owens (D) 38
Scozzafava (R) 18
Boston Mayor
Menino wins over Flaherty/Yoon by a decent margin. Boston just likes him and he does have the job for life. His opponents are hoping for a Frank Skeffington Last Hurrah moment, but not this time.
Menino: 61
Flaherty: 39
Virginia Governor
This should be a relatively easy Republican pickup.
McDonnel (R) 54
Deeds (D) 46
NJ Governor
A very bitter race with an unpopular incumbent in Corzine, but a rather inept campaign by his opponent, The Republicans should have won this one, but an independent candidate siphoning nominally Republican votes and Democratic money flowing to this race should win it for Corzine. The polls have shown a dead heat all along so this is a bit of a coin toss...
Corzine (D) 45
Christi (R) 43
Daggett (I) 12
NY, 23rd District
Perhaps the most drama of any race, this was shaping up as a three-way race with the NY Conservative Party nominating a - well a conservative candidate in Hoffman against a very liberal Republican candidate in Scozzafava, with Owens carrying the Democratic banner. As the Republican candidate is quite liberal on a number of issues, many national conservatives urged support for Hoffman creating an intra-Republican split. On Friday of last week Scozzafava withdrew from the race and endorsed the the Democrat Owens. My sense on this is that Hoffman who has been ahead in the polls still wins this though.
Hoffman (C) 44
Owens (D) 38
Scozzafava (R) 18
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Senate Candidate's Strategy
Just wanted to post a quick update - no breaking news on either the governor or senator front. But I do want to give a quick word on what I see as the strategies of the contending candidates for this office.
Martha Coakley
So far I am sticking with my prediction that the sitting AG should win both the primary and general election. She is picking up the endorsements of the Democratic establishment - sitting members of the legislature and organized labor. She is raising funds at a decent clip. She is way ahead in the early polls. In terms of campaign strategy she is doing what any conventional front runner should do - play it safe. If this were a football game, it is the fourth quarter with 3 minutes left. Coakley has the ball and is up by two touchdowns. She is trying to run out the clock. This makes sense - unless she makes a metaphoric fumble and either says or does something controversial and damaging to her campaign. This is unlikely to happen since she has been in a number of campaigns for elective office and knows how to play the game. Luckily for Coakley, she also has three primary opponents which divides the opposition. Her rather icy personality and her active avoidance of some elements of the news media may not help her, but her political organization, support from women's groups, and her high name recognition should make this a relatively smooth cruise to the US Senate.
Odds of winning the primary - 80%.
Michael Capuano
The former Sommerville mayor and current 8th District US Representative is trying like heck to pump up his name recognition outside of the immediate Boston area. He is also trying to be a "Democrat's Democrat" by running as far to the left as he can in the hopes that the liberal activists who typically dominate these primaries will swing to him. This would be a decent approach if it was a two person race, but it isn't. I expect that Alan Khazei will siphon off some of that liberal support and the Coakley juggernaut is simply to large to stop. Capuano is going to continue to throw political haymakers and show his fiery passion in the hopes of forcing a Coakley "fumble". However I place his odds at no more than 20% to win the primary and these odds will slowly diminish unless Coakley makes a major mistake over the next few weeks and gives him an opening.
Steve Pagliuca
As part-owner of the Boston Celtics, Pagliuca is spending a LOT of money to advertise everywhere under the sun. His background as a venture capitalist and former Republican (he became a Democrat about 10 years ago) will not be helpful in winning the primary. He is targeting Independent voters and the more conservative Democrats, although his most recent ads show him running to the left on almost all the issues - his research must show that those positions poll well. However, he will need massive numbers of independents to show up for the December 8 primary (unlikely to happen for a special election - unlikelier on a potentially cold and snowy December day) and I just can't see him pulling this off. I think this run for him is about getting experience in the wild Massachusetts political arena and raising his name recognition for a future statewide race.
Odds of winning the primary - 0% (yes, he really has no chance this time around)
Alan Khazei
As founder of the successful City Year program 20 years ago, Kazei has a good reputation and has been able to raise more money than expected. He will do relatively well in ultra-liberal areas (Amherst, Cambridge, Brookline, etc) thus taking votes that likely would have gone to Capuano. Expect him to run a poitive and clean campaign for third place. As with Palgliuca, this race is a way for Khazei to gain experience in running a campaign and setting up for a future run.
Odds of winning the primary - 2%
Prediction of results for the December 8 primary (ok - really out on a limb, but here goes...)
Coakley 49%
Capuano 32%
Pagliuca 11%
Khazei 8%
Scott Brown
(Full disclosure, the Prof plans to vote for Brown in the general election)
The sitting Republican State Senator will face the winner of the Democratic primary on January 19, 2010 and should be able to pull 35-40% of the vote against Coakley (some Capuano voters may end up voting for Brown as a protest). He is going to try to run as a moderate-conservative and pick up independent votes. However, the "R" next to his name in this deep blue state (and the knowledge that he would not support a still-popular President Obama) makes it very unlikely for him to win this. If Capuano upsets Coakley, Brown may do a bit better and win some disgruntled Coakley voters, but I just can't see him taking this. I will give him odds of 10% for the general election as there is always the chance for a major upset - but I just don't see it happening.
Stay tuned as this race is likely to get more lively as the primary date draws near.
Onwards!
The Prof
Martha Coakley
So far I am sticking with my prediction that the sitting AG should win both the primary and general election. She is picking up the endorsements of the Democratic establishment - sitting members of the legislature and organized labor. She is raising funds at a decent clip. She is way ahead in the early polls. In terms of campaign strategy she is doing what any conventional front runner should do - play it safe. If this were a football game, it is the fourth quarter with 3 minutes left. Coakley has the ball and is up by two touchdowns. She is trying to run out the clock. This makes sense - unless she makes a metaphoric fumble and either says or does something controversial and damaging to her campaign. This is unlikely to happen since she has been in a number of campaigns for elective office and knows how to play the game. Luckily for Coakley, she also has three primary opponents which divides the opposition. Her rather icy personality and her active avoidance of some elements of the news media may not help her, but her political organization, support from women's groups, and her high name recognition should make this a relatively smooth cruise to the US Senate.
Odds of winning the primary - 80%.
Michael Capuano
The former Sommerville mayor and current 8th District US Representative is trying like heck to pump up his name recognition outside of the immediate Boston area. He is also trying to be a "Democrat's Democrat" by running as far to the left as he can in the hopes that the liberal activists who typically dominate these primaries will swing to him. This would be a decent approach if it was a two person race, but it isn't. I expect that Alan Khazei will siphon off some of that liberal support and the Coakley juggernaut is simply to large to stop. Capuano is going to continue to throw political haymakers and show his fiery passion in the hopes of forcing a Coakley "fumble". However I place his odds at no more than 20% to win the primary and these odds will slowly diminish unless Coakley makes a major mistake over the next few weeks and gives him an opening.
Steve Pagliuca
As part-owner of the Boston Celtics, Pagliuca is spending a LOT of money to advertise everywhere under the sun. His background as a venture capitalist and former Republican (he became a Democrat about 10 years ago) will not be helpful in winning the primary. He is targeting Independent voters and the more conservative Democrats, although his most recent ads show him running to the left on almost all the issues - his research must show that those positions poll well. However, he will need massive numbers of independents to show up for the December 8 primary (unlikely to happen for a special election - unlikelier on a potentially cold and snowy December day) and I just can't see him pulling this off. I think this run for him is about getting experience in the wild Massachusetts political arena and raising his name recognition for a future statewide race.
Odds of winning the primary - 0% (yes, he really has no chance this time around)
Alan Khazei
As founder of the successful City Year program 20 years ago, Kazei has a good reputation and has been able to raise more money than expected. He will do relatively well in ultra-liberal areas (Amherst, Cambridge, Brookline, etc) thus taking votes that likely would have gone to Capuano. Expect him to run a poitive and clean campaign for third place. As with Palgliuca, this race is a way for Khazei to gain experience in running a campaign and setting up for a future run.
Odds of winning the primary - 2%
Prediction of results for the December 8 primary (ok - really out on a limb, but here goes...)
Coakley 49%
Capuano 32%
Pagliuca 11%
Khazei 8%
Scott Brown
(Full disclosure, the Prof plans to vote for Brown in the general election)
The sitting Republican State Senator will face the winner of the Democratic primary on January 19, 2010 and should be able to pull 35-40% of the vote against Coakley (some Capuano voters may end up voting for Brown as a protest). He is going to try to run as a moderate-conservative and pick up independent votes. However, the "R" next to his name in this deep blue state (and the knowledge that he would not support a still-popular President Obama) makes it very unlikely for him to win this. If Capuano upsets Coakley, Brown may do a bit better and win some disgruntled Coakley voters, but I just can't see him taking this. I will give him odds of 10% for the general election as there is always the chance for a major upset - but I just don't see it happening.
Stay tuned as this race is likely to get more lively as the primary date draws near.
Onwards!
The Prof
Saturday, September 26, 2009
New poll on the Governor's race
Suffolk University released a new poll of 500 registered voters regarding the 2010 gubernatorial race this week. The news continues to be bad for Deval Patrick in terms of favorability, but the three-way race keeps him in front.
Favorability for Governor Patrick - 42% favorable; 54% unfavorable
Does Governor Patrick deserve another term - 29% yes; 56% no
Hypothetical match-up:
Patrick 36%
Cahill 23%
Baker 14%
Undecided 26%
Baker's low support is mainly due to the nearly 50% of the sample who don't know enough of him to form an opinion. His numbers should rise as the campaign progresses. However the following "gut feeling" question does not bode well for Baker.
Would the state would be better off with a Republican governor?
Yes 39%
No 54%
This indicates the continuing deep blue bias in Massachusetts as the Republican Party continues to be viewed unfavorably by many residents of the state. Baker has an uphill climb, even with Patrick being viewed so poorly.
The surprise here is the continuing strength of Democrat turned Independent Tim Cahill. Regardless of who voters indicated as their first choice, a strong majority chose Cahill as a second choice. Cahill voters would choose Baker as their backup. This hurts Baker who really needs a two way race. It is not inconceivable that the is becomes a Cahill vs. Patrick race as the anti-Patrick vote may end up with who is perceived to be the strongest horse.
There is a block of loyal Patrick supporters composing between 35 and 40 percent of voters. In a conventional two-way race (undecideds usually break to the challenger) it would be bad news. However, in this three-way race it may be all he needs to win a second term. I maintain my prediction that he has a 55% chance of winning another term in November 2010. I also think that unless Baker can start stepping up his campaign that many independent voters may really consider supporting Cahill. This will be much clearer as time progresses, but Baker needs to find a message that can out-compete Cahill as the alternative to the second Patrick administration.
Onwards!
The Prof
Favorability for Governor Patrick - 42% favorable; 54% unfavorable
Does Governor Patrick deserve another term - 29% yes; 56% no
Hypothetical match-up:
Patrick 36%
Cahill 23%
Baker 14%
Undecided 26%
Baker's low support is mainly due to the nearly 50% of the sample who don't know enough of him to form an opinion. His numbers should rise as the campaign progresses. However the following "gut feeling" question does not bode well for Baker.
Would the state would be better off with a Republican governor?
Yes 39%
No 54%
This indicates the continuing deep blue bias in Massachusetts as the Republican Party continues to be viewed unfavorably by many residents of the state. Baker has an uphill climb, even with Patrick being viewed so poorly.
The surprise here is the continuing strength of Democrat turned Independent Tim Cahill. Regardless of who voters indicated as their first choice, a strong majority chose Cahill as a second choice. Cahill voters would choose Baker as their backup. This hurts Baker who really needs a two way race. It is not inconceivable that the is becomes a Cahill vs. Patrick race as the anti-Patrick vote may end up with who is perceived to be the strongest horse.
There is a block of loyal Patrick supporters composing between 35 and 40 percent of voters. In a conventional two-way race (undecideds usually break to the challenger) it would be bad news. However, in this three-way race it may be all he needs to win a second term. I maintain my prediction that he has a 55% chance of winning another term in November 2010. I also think that unless Baker can start stepping up his campaign that many independent voters may really consider supporting Cahill. This will be much clearer as time progresses, but Baker needs to find a message that can out-compete Cahill as the alternative to the second Patrick administration.
Onwards!
The Prof
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Curiouser and Curiouser
OK- lots happening....
Let's see, looks like the state legislature is going to grant the Governor the power to appoint a "temporary" replacement for the open MA senate seat. This should be wrapped up in a few days. Can you say Senator Michael Dukakis...
With Lynch taking a pass on the race (my guess is that his own internal polling showed few paths to victory), a new face enters the race. Venture capitalist and part owner of the Boston Celtics Stephen Pagliuca is launching a bid for the seat. He describes himself as a progressive Democrat and has enough money to buy quick name recognition. However, I still really think Martha Coakley will take this race. Yes I know its early - but I give her a 65% chance of winning the primary and the election.
Pagliuca's entrance may hurt Mike Capuano somewhat as he really needs a one on one race to increase his low name recognition (see new poll below). A three way race benefits Coakley because she has a large portion of the electorate in her corner due to her high name recognition. She also has a 53% favorability rating in the latest Suffolk University poll. Contrast this with Capuano having a 16% favorability rating and 33% having never heard of him. He has work to do. Barney Frank's endorsement and his announcement yesterday has him entering as the darling of liberal wing of the party. This is a smart strategy as liberal activists (and in Massachusetts there are lots of them in vote-rich areas) will be the most actuated to show up on December 8.
It is too early to estimate Pagliuca's impact on the race. My initial guess is that although he has a lot of money a race like this will be very tough for him. The major groups especially labor are already lining up behind Coakley and they can deliver votes. If he ran as an independent in the general election, it could make things more interesting. However, if either of the other two candidates make any serious mistakes, voters may give Pagliuca another look.
With the primary is less than three months away this is how the early race is shaping up through the recent Suffolk University poll:
Coakley - 47%
Capuano - 9%
Undecided 33%
Suffolk polling on the General Election in January also shows Coakley in the catbird seat against likely Republican candidate Scott Brown.
Coakley - 54%
Brown - 24%
Undecided - 20%
Scott Brown (who I am planning to support) has maybe a 5% chance of pulling a spectacular upset. Massachusetts truly is the bluest state and the R next to his name alienates nearly half of the voters immediately. I think it won't be 30 point blowout and he will do better against a Capuano, but he is in this race to increase his name recognition in my opinion. Look for him to run for another statewide office in the future.
Onwards!
The Prof
Let's see, looks like the state legislature is going to grant the Governor the power to appoint a "temporary" replacement for the open MA senate seat. This should be wrapped up in a few days. Can you say Senator Michael Dukakis...
With Lynch taking a pass on the race (my guess is that his own internal polling showed few paths to victory), a new face enters the race. Venture capitalist and part owner of the Boston Celtics Stephen Pagliuca is launching a bid for the seat. He describes himself as a progressive Democrat and has enough money to buy quick name recognition. However, I still really think Martha Coakley will take this race. Yes I know its early - but I give her a 65% chance of winning the primary and the election.
Pagliuca's entrance may hurt Mike Capuano somewhat as he really needs a one on one race to increase his low name recognition (see new poll below). A three way race benefits Coakley because she has a large portion of the electorate in her corner due to her high name recognition. She also has a 53% favorability rating in the latest Suffolk University poll. Contrast this with Capuano having a 16% favorability rating and 33% having never heard of him. He has work to do. Barney Frank's endorsement and his announcement yesterday has him entering as the darling of liberal wing of the party. This is a smart strategy as liberal activists (and in Massachusetts there are lots of them in vote-rich areas) will be the most actuated to show up on December 8.
It is too early to estimate Pagliuca's impact on the race. My initial guess is that although he has a lot of money a race like this will be very tough for him. The major groups especially labor are already lining up behind Coakley and they can deliver votes. If he ran as an independent in the general election, it could make things more interesting. However, if either of the other two candidates make any serious mistakes, voters may give Pagliuca another look.
With the primary is less than three months away this is how the early race is shaping up through the recent Suffolk University poll:
Coakley - 47%
Capuano - 9%
Undecided 33%
Suffolk polling on the General Election in January also shows Coakley in the catbird seat against likely Republican candidate Scott Brown.
Coakley - 54%
Brown - 24%
Undecided - 20%
Scott Brown (who I am planning to support) has maybe a 5% chance of pulling a spectacular upset. Massachusetts truly is the bluest state and the R next to his name alienates nearly half of the voters immediately. I think it won't be 30 point blowout and he will do better against a Capuano, but he is in this race to increase his name recognition in my opinion. Look for him to run for another statewide office in the future.
Onwards!
The Prof
Thursday, September 10, 2009
First poll on special Senate election
Rasmussen has released the first poll on the upcoming Senate race.
These numbers are very early and really gauge basic name recognition as the real campaign has yet to start. Martha Coakley's statewide name recognition is serving her very well. Moreover, her overall favorability is at 67%. If she does not stumble, she is going to be the one to beat. This also means that she will have a target on her back and will be the subject of political broadside hurled by opponents.
Since this poll was run, Marty Meehan has taken himself out of the race. I think it is unlikely that John Tierney and Ed Markey run. We should know the final field within a week as jumping in late has no real benefit with such a short campaign. But if I had to predict today, I think the field is Coakley, Capuano, and Lynch with Coakley looking very formidable - at least at this early point. However, if another liberal candidate jumps into the race, Lynch should benefit as the sole moderate candidate.
On the Republican side, State Senator Scott Brown had a scare with Christy Mihos apparently weighing a jump to this race for about an hour (nice publicity for Mihos' gubernatorial run, I think that was the intent all along). Former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card is said to be seriously considering a run at this point as well. A Republican primary battle hurts Lynch as Republican-leaning independents will be less likely to jump to the Democratic primary where (presumably) Lynch would benefit.
Expect many more posts on this race over the next several weeks. The Prof is in the zone!
Onwards!
The Prof
Monday, September 7, 2009
Handicapping the Senate race...
With the now-open US Senate seat scheduled to be filled by a special election on January 19, it is time to try some early handicapping of what will be a crowded field...primary elections for the parties are scheduled for December 8 - three short months away!
The early odds for each candidate that I am posting assume that Joe Kennedy is not in the race...if he is they will be reworked in my next posting. Update: I stand by the odds I published - for now!
One thing to bear in mind is that special elections have historically low turnout and candidates with excellent fundraising ability and GOTV (get out the vote) operations will fare well.
Democrats
Breaking News - Kennedy not running!
Of course this news breaks a few hours after I post this... I need to find a Matt Drudge style siren for breaking news!
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/09/joseph_kennedy.html
Joe Kennedy:
If he throws his hat into the ring he will benefit through instant name recognition and Kennedy nostalgia. He has experience as a former Congressman and would be able to raise a large amount of money in a short time. My instinct tells me that he would be the odds on favorite, but would not be a lock for the nomination. If he does run, he will have a smaller field to run against however, as his presence would make some potential candidates think twice about running. I see the race between him and Martha Coakley
Odds: (if he runs) 60% of winning the nomination
Odds of running: less than even, lets say 60-40 he does not get into the race (I was right!!)
Attorney General Martha Coakley:
The sitting State Attorney General has already formerly declared for the seat and has made it no secret that her ambition has been the US Senate for some time. She has the experience of having run and won a statewide election and will be able to raise money from liberal advocacy and women's groups. Although technocratic in approach and temperament, nevertheless I think she will be a formidable force in this race. She has had a meteoric political rise and if Joe K. decides not to run, she has the best shot at winning with a crowded primary field. This primary is one where organization and political savvy will benefit her greatly. Remember, winning 35% of the vote in a crowded race wins you the nomination...
Odds: 55% shot at winning the nomination
Congressman Steven Lynch:
Steve Lynch has filed papers to run and will be in this race regardless of what Joe K. does. He is the most conservative Massachusetts member of Congress and can potentially do well among blue collar voters and Republican-leaning independents (more on this in a minute). He has a substantial financial war chest that he can put to use for this race. However, he is on the conservative side of the Democratic Party and I think he will have trouble beating a more liberal opponent - unless several liberal candidates run and split the vote.
Odds: 30%
Congressman Michael Capuano:
This liberal Congressman from Tip O'Neil's old 8th District seat has the ability to raise money and is a fiery and passionate liberal on the issues which will help him in a primary battle. His problem is lack of name recognition outside his district and a primary race with at least two other liberal candidates. He could catch fire though if Coakley stumbles.
Odds: 20%
Congressman Ed Markey:
The long-term Congressman from Malden is said to be eyeing a run (if Joe does not of course). I think he has the same issues the Capuano has - a crowded field with ideologically similar candidates. Also, he does not have the personal charisma of a Capuano.
Odds: 10%
UMass Lowell Chancellor Marty Meehan:
Marty retired from Congress in 2007 and has a few million dollars sitting in his campaign account that he may put to use. Opportunities like this arise rarely and he is seriously considering this race. He is a moderate Democrat and does have significant name recognition. However, he is not well-liked by many party activists and did retire from a safe seat in The House. I think he will pull the trigger on this race though and may surprise with a decent showing as he is well regarded in the Merrimack Valley.
Odds: 20%
I don't think Congressman Barney Frank will run as he he a plum House Committee Chairmanship where he wields more power than he would as a junior senator. If he does surprise us and run, I think he may have the chance at pulling an upset as he is very politically gifted ands would be the liberal darling in this race.
Republicans
I am not going to spend too much time here as there is virtually no chance for a Republican to win this seat in heavily Democratic Massachusetts. Raising money and frankly finding credible candidates continue to be the bane of the Massachusetts GOP.
Former Lt. Governor Kerry Healy took herself out of the running over the weekend. State Senator Scott Brown and former White House Chief of Staff Andy Card are said to be eyeing runs. Registered Independent Curt Schilling may have to run as an independent candidate if he does get into the race (I don't think he will, by the way) as state election laws require him to be registered in a major party in order to run for a party nomination.
However, I am about 95% certain that the winner of the Democratic primary will be the elected Senator with at least 60% of the overall vote come January.
Oh yes...almost forgot! The role of independents who can vote in party primaries may help a candidate like Lynch as we can safely assume that turnout for the Republican primary will be very low and that most independents will go into the Democratic primary. (Full disclosure, I plan to pull the lever for Lynch in the primary as I am a conservative-leaning independent) Again turnout is key and that hinges on a candidate's ability to organize and raise raise money during a very short campaign season. This is promising to be an exciting fall...
Onwards!
The Prof
The early odds for each candidate that I am posting assume that Joe Kennedy is not in the race...if he is they will be reworked in my next posting. Update: I stand by the odds I published - for now!
One thing to bear in mind is that special elections have historically low turnout and candidates with excellent fundraising ability and GOTV (get out the vote) operations will fare well.
Democrats
Breaking News - Kennedy not running!
Of course this news breaks a few hours after I post this... I need to find a Matt Drudge style siren for breaking news!
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/09/joseph_kennedy.html
Joe Kennedy:
If he throws his hat into the ring he will benefit through instant name recognition and Kennedy nostalgia. He has experience as a former Congressman and would be able to raise a large amount of money in a short time. My instinct tells me that he would be the odds on favorite, but would not be a lock for the nomination. If he does run, he will have a smaller field to run against however, as his presence would make some potential candidates think twice about running. I see the race between him and Martha Coakley
Odds: (if he runs) 60% of winning the nomination
Odds of running: less than even, lets say 60-40 he does not get into the race (I was right!!)
Attorney General Martha Coakley:
The sitting State Attorney General has already formerly declared for the seat and has made it no secret that her ambition has been the US Senate for some time. She has the experience of having run and won a statewide election and will be able to raise money from liberal advocacy and women's groups. Although technocratic in approach and temperament, nevertheless I think she will be a formidable force in this race. She has had a meteoric political rise and if Joe K. decides not to run, she has the best shot at winning with a crowded primary field. This primary is one where organization and political savvy will benefit her greatly. Remember, winning 35% of the vote in a crowded race wins you the nomination...
Odds: 55% shot at winning the nomination
Congressman Steven Lynch:
Steve Lynch has filed papers to run and will be in this race regardless of what Joe K. does. He is the most conservative Massachusetts member of Congress and can potentially do well among blue collar voters and Republican-leaning independents (more on this in a minute). He has a substantial financial war chest that he can put to use for this race. However, he is on the conservative side of the Democratic Party and I think he will have trouble beating a more liberal opponent - unless several liberal candidates run and split the vote.
Odds: 30%
Congressman Michael Capuano:
This liberal Congressman from Tip O'Neil's old 8th District seat has the ability to raise money and is a fiery and passionate liberal on the issues which will help him in a primary battle. His problem is lack of name recognition outside his district and a primary race with at least two other liberal candidates. He could catch fire though if Coakley stumbles.
Odds: 20%
Congressman Ed Markey:
The long-term Congressman from Malden is said to be eyeing a run (if Joe does not of course). I think he has the same issues the Capuano has - a crowded field with ideologically similar candidates. Also, he does not have the personal charisma of a Capuano.
Odds: 10%
UMass Lowell Chancellor Marty Meehan:
Marty retired from Congress in 2007 and has a few million dollars sitting in his campaign account that he may put to use. Opportunities like this arise rarely and he is seriously considering this race. He is a moderate Democrat and does have significant name recognition. However, he is not well-liked by many party activists and did retire from a safe seat in The House. I think he will pull the trigger on this race though and may surprise with a decent showing as he is well regarded in the Merrimack Valley.
Odds: 20%
I don't think Congressman Barney Frank will run as he he a plum House Committee Chairmanship where he wields more power than he would as a junior senator. If he does surprise us and run, I think he may have the chance at pulling an upset as he is very politically gifted ands would be the liberal darling in this race.
Republicans
I am not going to spend too much time here as there is virtually no chance for a Republican to win this seat in heavily Democratic Massachusetts. Raising money and frankly finding credible candidates continue to be the bane of the Massachusetts GOP.
Former Lt. Governor Kerry Healy took herself out of the running over the weekend. State Senator Scott Brown and former White House Chief of Staff Andy Card are said to be eyeing runs. Registered Independent Curt Schilling may have to run as an independent candidate if he does get into the race (I don't think he will, by the way) as state election laws require him to be registered in a major party in order to run for a party nomination.
However, I am about 95% certain that the winner of the Democratic primary will be the elected Senator with at least 60% of the overall vote come January.
Oh yes...almost forgot! The role of independents who can vote in party primaries may help a candidate like Lynch as we can safely assume that turnout for the Republican primary will be very low and that most independents will go into the Democratic primary. (Full disclosure, I plan to pull the lever for Lynch in the primary as I am a conservative-leaning independent) Again turnout is key and that hinges on a candidate's ability to organize and raise raise money during a very short campaign season. This is promising to be an exciting fall...
Onwards!
The Prof
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