Election 2020, an election that was likely to be a "typical" presidential election year- at least typical in the age of Trump where many of the old rules have been rewritten. This election would feature a closely divided electorate facing the prospect of reelecting a president with relatively strong economic numbers coupled with no major military conflicts - normally enough to reelect any incumbent president,
However, President Donald Trump's personal actions, impeachment, and a habit of degrading individuals and groups opposed to him would make this election a tossup against a generic Democratic candidate. All seemed geared for a bruising match with former Vice President Joe Biden who had bested a crowded field of candidates by early March 2020. This election would be a referendum on Trumpism with the economy, impeachment, and progressive vs conservative policy solutions as the major issues.
Until COVID-19...
Until a virus that threatens the health and lives of millions of Americans and people worldwide...
Until a national shutdown and Quarantine...
Until unprecedented societal disruption...
Until a deep economic recession or perhaps depression...
The current situation is going to be THE issue of 2020 - at least as of this writing. How both Trump and Biden - along with the actions of the nation's governors handle this will have a great bearing on the results of 2020. Let us examine the main players.
President Trump
Presidents either shine or wither in a crisis (compare FDR WW2 and JFK Cuban Missile Crisis, vs Hoover Great Depression and Carter Iranian Hostage Crisis). The jury remains out on Trump and may well be a hung jury as partisan differences are exceedingly sharp with Republicans praising his leadership and Democrats citing that he has not done enough and was too slow to act. These opinions are unlikely to change and reflect the deep chasm that exists in today's political climate.
More encouraging for Trump is that he and Congress have worked together to pass several pieces of relief legislation related to the Covid Crisis. In a rare show of bipartisanship these provisions were passed nearly unanimously. In addition he has resisted the more right wing segments of his party in terms of taking the crisis seriously.
Unfortunately for the president, it looks like he was persuaded by a combination of poor polling data and his medical team (shout out to Doctors Fauci and Birx) to shift course to one more aligned with the vast majority of public health official. In addition, a growing chorus on the political and religious Right is calling for a much quicker reopening of the economy and society than many in the public health community would suggest.
Given all of the drama throughout his presidency, Trump's reelection will stand or fall on the perceptions of how he has handled this crisis both in terms of the health ramifications and the economic dislocation. Trump did receive a bit of a polling bounce (known as the rally effect) but that has receded in recent days. Expect things to change rapidly as he has a knack for making contradictory statements and policy by the day,
Joe Biden
Biden, now the presumptive Democratic nominee has risen from an endangered campaign as recently as February. After very shaky performances in Iowa (which has probably lost its first in the nation status) and and New Hampshire, he smashed temporary front-runner Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, Nevada, and most Super Tuesday states. Super Tuesday forced the remaining candidates out of the race (all of whom endorsed Biden) and Biden was the last man standing in the "moderate" lane. Warren and Sanders continued to split the liberal vote for another round of primaries thus amplifying Biden's victories.
Biden benefited greatly from his strong support among Black voters, Rural voters, and voters over 50. The youth vote, touted by many experts as pivotal again failed to materialize in large enough numbers to make a difference. Biden is also seen by most Democrats as the best candidate to run against Trump. There still needs to be some fence mending with those on the party's left wing, but it is likely that he will lead a united party in November.
The major issue Biden faces right now is that he is having great difficulty in getting attention in this period of time. Trump is using the bully pulpit as a way to be on television seven days a week. In these times of Quarantine, Biden cannot hold any rallies and is forced to conduct interviews from his home and issue press statements.
There have been some calls for Biden to name his (female) VP sooner rather then later to create some buzz. There also have been calls to form a type of shadow cabinet to highlight policy differences with the president. The drawback of this is that every member of the cabinet will be scrutinized` and attacked by the GOP. That's politics.
Governors
State governors have received a lot of attention as federalism is alive and well. Governors Cuomo of New York and Newsom of California have emerged as both state and media leaders. There has been considerable tension between many governors and the Trump administration regarding federal response and coordination as well as the federal versus state role in how and when the nation "reopens". After Trump initially asserted that the president has the right to determine this the governors will be taking the lead (the proper constitutional way, see the 10th amendment) with suggested federal guidance regarding milestones should be achieved, As of this writing, there are three regional compacts (Northeast, West, and Midwest) between mostly Democratic governors on coordinating economic reopening.
What Now?
Over the next several weeks I will examine in depth the evolving political climate and run some early electoral college scenarios. There remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty ranging from how the actual election will be conducted (in person voting vs mailing ballots) - to how damaging the pandemic will be - to the state of the economy and society by early autumn. Much is in flux and of course I reserve the right to revise my analysis as conditions change.
Stay Healthy and Onwards!
The Prof
