US 2018 Senate Election Civics Lesson

In the 2018 midterm election Democrats received more total national votes than the Republicans in Senatorial contests by a margin of 47.9 million to 34.3 million. Thus the question has come up as to how the GOP is still controlling the Senate after the 2018 midterm.

Keep this in mind that we are a constitutional democratic republic and the system was set up to work in such a way to protect state rights. In a national parliamentary system the Democrats would control more legislative seats. Consider these points.

• Under our federal system states elect two Senators regardless of the state's population. Thus CA and NY will have many more potential votes than does WY or VT for each Senate election thus a big win for a particular party in large states can run up the national total.

• Second, the Democrats had many more incumbent seats in play last night and most actually won by fairly wide margins - the media was focused on a few close races. Bear in mind that Warren's win in Massachusetts gave the Democrats a margin of over 750k votes while Scott's apparent win in Florida was by less than 15k votes. This yields a a net plurality of over 700k votes for the Democratic vote total, but one senator is elected from each party. 

• Lastly, under the California open primary rules, two Democrats ran against each other netting over 7 million total Democratic votes and zero Republican senatorial votes in CA. 

Onwards!

The Prof

2018 Massachusetts Races - Final Predictions

Election Day 2018 is tomorrow, so some quick predictions and analysis of a fairly predictable race (more of a stroll in fact) here in the Bay State.

Governor

Incumbent governor Charlie Baker is leading Jay Gonzalez by a more than comfortable 43 points in the last poll. Baker has consistently outperform his underfunded and largely unknown opponent. Gonzalez is suffering from a lack of institutional party support as well as Baker plays ball well with the Democratic legislature. Baker has successfully parleyed attempts to tie him the Donald Trump - in fact he may be the most anti-Trump Republican holding major office.

Gonzalez should win (albeit by modest margins) in Boston and the major urban areas and the liberal 5 College region in the Pioneer Valley, Expect Baker to rack up large victories in the suburbs - even the left leaning Route 2 corridor west of Boston. Across the 495 belt, South Shore, Essex and Worcester County Baker wins by landslide totals. He is not going to win by 43 points, but I expect and easy double digit win for the incumbent governor.

Prediction: Baker wins 62 - 38


US Senate

Many Baker voters will split their tickets and also cast a vote for incumbent senator Elizabeth Warren. GOP candidate Geoffe Dheil who has tied himself to the national GOP will suffer due to Trump's extreme unpopularity in Massachusetts.

Prediction: Warren wins 58-42


Other Races:

• Democrats win all other state constitutional offices easily, all by greater than 20 points.

• Democrats win all contested US House races easily, all by more than 20 points. 

• Ballot questions 2 and 3 win in a landslide, Question 1 on nurse staffing ratios loses by 5 points.

• In national races, the Democrats capture the House by about 20 seats and the GOP holds the Senate and gains 1 seat.

Onwards!

The Prof