2020 Final Predictions

I will open with my prediction map. I usually save this for later in my analysis, but as good a headline as any. Several of these states (Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Florida) are on a knifes edge and could easily change. I feel somewhat better about the others.. 

National Vote Total: Biden 53   Trump 45  Others: 2

Well...here we are! It is November 1, 2020 and on the cusp of perhaps the most contentious and divided election since the Civil War. This is not hyperbole - the nation is clearly and bitterly divided along class, race, education, "coastal elites" vs. "fly over country", urban vs rural, gun control vs. 2nd amendment, and a host of other divides. However, this election is truly an up or down vote on President Trump's tenure in his first four years of office. All of these variables make it more difficult than in years past to be confident in the final results. 

In addition to the systemic divide, the Covid pandemic is the HUGE issue and creates another variable whose impact is difficult to ascertain. This being said, lets see where things stand on Election Eve of 2020:

• There has been an unprecedented number of voters voting both early and by mail, most accounts have this at close to 100 million who have voted prior to November 3. Looking at registered early voter turnout, the Democrats seems to have the advantage although the early GOP turnout has been increasing over the past several days.
• There are also an unprecedented amount of mail in ballots. Depending upon the state they may or may not be counted if they are received after Nov. 3 (received after Nov. 3 must be postmarked by that date in order to count in those states).The nature of the rules around how these ballots need to be returned increase the likelihood of a not insubstantial number being "spoiled" for various reasons. Expect these to matter a lot in states where the vote is close.
• There is a real threat of protests and possible violence. The pandemic and frankly anger and "grievance politics" that seems to have swept the nation of late is going to lead to a lot of folks to be very unhappy with the outcome. This is a wildcard especially if there are disturbances that mar voting on Tuesday.
• Lawyer up! President Trump has made it quite clear that he is very likely to challenge results if they go against him. These challenges are going to center around those tens of millions of mail in ballots and the actual day of Nov. 3 turnout which is likely to benefit the GOP. Be prepared not to have any definitive winner for several days or perhaps several weeks. But best not to borrow trouble...for now.
• There are very few undecided voters left for either campaign to pick up. Both campaigns are focused on base turnout. Turnout may run into record territory surpassing 65% nationwide.

Keys to Biden's likely victory:

• Biden will benefit greatly from high turnout among base Democratic constituencies and has erased the historic  GOP edge lead among college educated suburbanites. Biden will also win by higher minority turnout as these groups are highly motivated unlike in 2016.
• Biden will win women voters by a very large margin. The gender gap will be one of the major stories of 2020 - and the opportunity to have the first female vice president.
• Biden has a large $ edge and has been able to contest states such as TX and GA which the GOP usually does not need to defend. This year it does - drawing resources from other states.
• Trump's...how do put this kindly...well volatile and bizarre antics do not help him win. They work with his base, but turn off many voters who may otherwise have considered him.
• Covid Covid Covid! 'Nuff said.
• The economy, a major issue that has buoyed Trump, simply is not seen as being enough of a factor to justify reelection. 
• Biden has successfully tamed (for now) the more radical elements of the Democratic party and his moderate and calm approach is working despite Trump's claims that he is a closet radical leftist. The voters simply aren't buying it.
• Unlike 2016 where the combined Libertarian and Green vote surpassed 4%, this wildcard is largely absent. Many Libertarian votes in 2016 were from GOP "never Trumpers" and Biden will benefit from this. Additionally many Green voters will grudgingly vote for Biden as they hurt Clinton in key states in 2016.

How can Trump pull another miracle:

• The polls are simply wrong and are missing a massive Trump vote. Shy Trump voters come out in droves. This is unlikely as 2016 national polling was very good, but state polls had methodological problems. Polling forms claim to have fixed them. Remember, a switch of 70,000 votes in 2016 would have resulted in Clinton winning PA, MI and WI... and the presidency! 2016 was very close and Trump pulled it off. 2020 is not as close, so this would be a far more unlikely need threading. Unlikely - but not impossible.
• Biden runs up the table nationally (there is a 99% Biden wins the popular vote), but Trump turns out the voters where it matters - the swing state in the upper Midwest. There is a massive red wave in rural areas and it is just enough to turn PA, FL, and WI red yet again and he holds his other fortresses. 
• The economy helps him as Trump ends up being seen as a better economic manager. This brings just enough suburban voters back, voters that he desperately needs.
• Trump is successful in creating just enough doubt about Biden and "the radical left". This amps up his base and holds down Biden's gains among college educated suburbanites.

Key states to watch:

In the race to 270 EVs, Biden has many paths as I see it, Trump needs to pull an inside straight...yet again! Nationally, Biden has maintained a comfortable polling lead of between 6 and 10 points for several weeks. This stability bodes well for his chances. However it is the states that matter.

• Pennsylvania: Trump is focusing great effort to maximize base turnout, Biden has a moderate and steady lead in the polling, but so did Hillary Clinton in 2016. Expect this state to be very tight and not to be called for days as there will be many legal challenges over the vote. Trump needs to run the table again in rural PA and Biden needs to outperform in Philly and the suburbs. Biden's PA roots will help him over the hump. Prediction: Biden 51 Trump 47 Others 2.
• Florida: Do or die for the President. If he loses FL, he really has no path to victory. Looks down to the wire with perhaps a slight Biden lead. I think Biden pulls it out as the Hispanic (non Cuban) vote is expected to have much higher turnout than 2016. Prediction: Biden 49 Trump 48 Others 3.
• North Carolina: Another must win for Trump, but I think he falls just short. More white collar suburbanites migrating to NC will help Biden immensely here. Prediction: Biden 50 Trump 48 Others 2.
• Arizona: Historically Republican, but trending more Democratic in recent years, this is a true battleground now. A coin toss as polling has been all over the place. Prediction: Biden 49 Trump 48 Others 3.
• Georgia: This is a state that was not expected to be in play. GOP dominated since the 1980 the polling now shows a small Biden lead. However, I think Trump will BARELY nose it out as rural GA is ruby red.. Prediction: Trump 50 Biden 49 Others 1.
• Michigan: Trump's surprise win here in 2016 will not be repeated. The Democrats will jot be caught napping again and their turnout machine is in full gear. Prediction: Biden 54 Trump 45 Others 1.
• Wisconsin: Much like Michigan, I think the GOP will lose much of the suburban vote it was able to capture in 2016. College age turnout will be very high in Madison and will pull Biden over the finish line. Prediction: Biden 51 Trump 48 Others 1
• Ohio: Trump's surprise 10 point victory in 2016 shows how red OH has trended. It will be very close, but Trump repeats in 2020. Prediction: Trump 49 Biden 48 Others 1.
• Texas!!: Never thought I would see Texas this close. Demographics are changing this state into a battle ground. Huge turnout in urban areas are needed by Biden to win, but a bridge just a bit too far given how red the vast rural areas remain. Prediction: Trump 50 Biden 48 Others 2.
• Iowa: Always a swing state, this will be down to the wire as well. Late polling shows a small surge for Trump. Another coin toss, but my gut says Trump barely ekes it out again. Prediction: Trump 49.8 Biden 49.2 Others 2.

Potential Battlegrounds

• Minnesota: Trump is trying hard to pick off MN which he lost be 2 points in 2016. He loses by 4 this time. Prediction: Biden 52 Trump 48.
• Montana: The Democrats will make a run here, but Trump does not lose here unless there is a wave that I am not seeing. Prediction: Trump 53 Biden 47.
• Missouri: Closer than 2016, but Trump hangs on: Prediction: Trump 52 Biden 48.
• Virginia: Really not a swing state anymore with the DC suburbs now a deep blue. Prediction: Biden 54 Trump 46.
• Nevada: T'will be close again, but I see Biden hanging on. Prediction: Biden 53 Trump 47.
• Nebraska: Biden easily picks up the 1 EV from the area around Lincoln, Trump wins NB overall by about 7 points.
• Maine: The second district barely goes for Biden and he picks up this EV. Overall ME goes for Biden by at least 10 points.

Senate:

This is still fluid...I think Collins in ME is a goner. Graham in SC is in trouble as well. CO is another GOP loss. The GOP picks up the Jones seat in AL. The GA seat will go to a run-off in 6 weeks. Prediction: Democrats regain the Senate 52-48. 

House:

Democrats pad their majority by 15-20 seats. Bottom line: Blue states get bluer.

A few fun maps and other sundries:

Nightmare scenario maps:

Biden Nightmare Scenario

Trump Nightmare Scenario

Massachusetts (my home state!): Biden wins by a historic margin 69-31. Markey beats O'Connell 66-34. Question 1 passes easily. Question 2 loses somewhat narrowly. GOP shrinks further in the state due to Biden coattails. In the State legislature: House the GOP loses seats and is now mired with less than 25 seats out of 160. In the State Senate it is even gloomier. The GOP may end up down 38-2.

Best Biden State: Massachusetts or California.

Best Trump state: Wyoming or Idaho

I believe that there may well be a loooong electoral and legal battle beyond November 3 as well - but lets save that morsel for later!

Onwards!

The Prof

Electoral College 2020 - An Early Look

As we know, the winner of the American presidential election is determined by winning a majority in the Electoral College. Every state (except for Nebraska and Maine) allocate their Electors by a winner take all system, thus it does not matter if a candidate wins a given state by 20% or 0.1% - the winner receives the right to name all of the Electors (a party approved slate of supporters). Once a candidate reaches or surpasses a majority of the 538 total Electors currently 270 Electoral Votes (EVs) they will win the election.

ME and NB use what is known as the District Plan under which the statewide winner receives two Electors and the remaining Electors are selected by the popular vote winner within each Congressional District. This method has often been cited as a possible reform to the entire system as it would split the vote and give candidates the chance to win Electors they otherwise would not have a chance at (think Republicans winning a few Electors in CA and Democrats winning a few Electors out of Alabama). If this system was in place, Romney would have very narrowly beaten Obama in 2012 while losing the nationwide popular vote. But that is a discussion for future post...

Lets look at some maps  - best for us visual types!

All maps are courtesy of 270towin.com

Starting map with Solid and Tossup states

The below map has states colored as either solid or leaning for each candidate with toss-up states in grey. This is from polling conducted through late April 2020 and how states have historically voted over the past few cycles.

Note that there are only a few true toss-up states. Arizona, a GOP lock most years is now up for grabs. The same with North Carolina. Demographic changes in both states (Hispanics in AZ and wealthy middle class whites in NC) have made them more favorable for Democrats in the last decade. Virginia has continued its Democratic trend (the DC beltways is about as blue as any Northeastern urban area). However, former battlegrounds Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri have become more reliably Republican (due to working class and rural voters trending more Republican). Three states are key as they are most years - PA, MI, and FL. Trump carried all three by very narrow margins in 2016 and needs to win them again if he has any hope of reelection in 2020.

One other to watch is Texas. Deep red since 1980, it is trending more purple and Trump won it by a comparatively close 9 points in 2016. If Texas goes blue, game over.


Biden: Landslide Scenario

The below is a best case scenario for Biden with Trump's support collapsing and a blue wave sweeping Biden into office.

Biden wins nationwide by 8% to 11% nationwide. Trump loses all leaning GOP states and even more reliably GOP bastions such as Texas by close margins. Democrats regain their advantage around the Great Lakes that Trump cracked in 2016. Florida and Georgia are are breached by Biden (Trump won GA by only 5% in 2016). Pennsylvania where Biden has roots flips easily. Losing Texas is obviously catastrophic for the GOP, but not implausible given high turnout among Hispanics and youth voters. I hesitated on Iowa and Ohio as they are tending red, but Obama did win those states twice so I kicked them to the blue team.

Bear in mind this map is based on an overwhelming Democratic wave. For something of this scale to occur there would need to be an economy in Depression and for the Trump to be on the receiving end of public ire. It also assumes white suburbanites and women vote for Biden - or against Trump in massive numbers. Add an energized African American and Hispanic turnout  to flip states like AZ, NC, GA and TX.

The GOP base vote does come out, but ongoing demographic shifts and a severe loss of white suburbanites doom Trump to winning only in those areas where his base is a true majority.


Trump - A Close Win Scenario

Based on conditions as of early May 2020, I do not foresee Trump winning in anything approaching a landslide. However, it is quite plausible that he wins reelection in a fairly close race.

In this case Trump wins a very close nationwide vote, probably in the 1% to 2% range. Note that I have kept Michigan blue. But Prof - polling in Michigan was off in 2016, why not in 2020? I am basing this call on Trump winning MI in 2016 by only 0.02% and his overall favorability in MI has declined considerably. However, current polling remains close in such battlegrounds as NC, WI, and FL and Trump wins these states by modest margins. The President ends not being widely blamed for the Recession in this scenario and his base (rural and working class) come out in unprecedented numbers. Minority turnout is about the same as 2016, allowing Trump to retain PA (albeit very closely) and AZ. An added bonus of this scenario is that the GOP does not have to spend resources to defend Texas.

You may ask why Trump doesn't perform better and match his 2016 win. I am basing my analysis on both nationwide and state polling and Trump favorability which has been mired in the mid 40s. Yes, it IS early and these assumptions may (and likely will) change as time and conditions progress, but almost everything needs to break Trump's way for him to serve another four years. And so onto how I would call this as of May 2, 2020...

The Prof's May 2020 Prediction

As of this writing I see 2020 being a roughly 4% to 7% Biden victory nationwide. Biden successfully flips FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, and AZ. Minority turnout is critical for Biden to flip these states. Biden betters Clinton's performance among white suburbanites which makes VA and importantly PA early calls for Biden. Massive turnout in liberal urban areas of Wisconsin (much like the recent WI judicial election ) return it to the Democratic fold. Biden also does surprisingly well in solidly red states such as SC due to an energized Black turnout.

Ironically a sizable slice of Republicans and Independent leaners who held their nose and voted for Trump in 2016 will flip to Biden as he is a relative moderate and promises a return to political normalcy. This is why the Democratic Party movers and shakers (rumor has it President Obama was among these) favored Biden over Sanders as Sanders' policies would be concerning enough for middle class moderates to vote for Trump again  - close-pins firmly on noses.

Trump holds on by a small margin in Ohio. GA and IA are very close, but Trump squeaks them out. But it simply is not enough as far as the math is concerned. Trump does not flip any states that Clinton won in 2016 as Biden performs better in all of the blue states from 2016. NH and Colorado are firmly out of reach and Biden is able to focus resources on the Great Lake states and Florida.

Texas ends up very close as well, forcing Trump to spend resources that would have been of better use elsewhere.

A note on third parties

In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein won 3.27% and 1.06% respectively. One can certainly argue that "wasted" votes for Stein cost Clinton MI and WI. It also can be argued that many Johnson voters were anti-Trump Republicans and may have cost Trump NH. Does the Libertarian candidate (probably former MI Congressmen Justin Amash) affect the race in either direction? Does a wealthy individual like Mark Cuban decide to pull a Ross Perot and siphon a significant number of votes? All this remains to be seen.

Typically third party candidates have little real effect on a presidential race, but in Nader in 2000 and Perot in 1992 absolutely had significant influence on the final results. Remember Nader won 97,000 votes in Florida - a state that was ultimately declared for George W. Bush by only 537 votes and delivered him the presidency.

In conclusion

All of my analysis is based on my best guess as of today, It does not necessarily reflect what I want to happen as my role here is to facilitate and not to advocate for any one side. See you very soon!

Onwards!

The Prof

2020 Presidential Election: Conditions in the Age of COVID

Election 2020, an election that was likely to be a "typical" presidential election year- at least typical in the age of Trump where many of the old rules have been rewritten. This election would feature a closely divided electorate facing the prospect of reelecting a president with relatively strong economic numbers coupled with no major military conflicts - normally enough to reelect any incumbent president,

However, President Donald Trump's personal actions, impeachment, and a habit of degrading individuals and groups opposed to him would make this election a tossup against a generic Democratic candidate. All seemed geared for a bruising match with former Vice President Joe Biden who had bested a crowded field of candidates by early March 2020. This election would be a referendum on Trumpism with the economy, impeachment, and progressive vs conservative policy solutions as the major issues.

Until COVID-19...

Until a virus that threatens the  health and lives of millions of Americans and people worldwide...

Until a national shutdown and Quarantine...

Until unprecedented societal disruption...

Until a deep economic recession or perhaps depression...

The current situation is going to be THE issue of 2020 - at least as of this writing. How both Trump and Biden - along with the actions of the nation's governors handle this will have a great bearing on the results of 2020. Let us examine the main players.

President Trump

Presidents either shine or wither in a crisis (compare FDR WW2 and JFK Cuban Missile Crisis, vs Hoover Great Depression and Carter Iranian Hostage Crisis). The jury remains out on Trump and may well be a hung jury as partisan differences are exceedingly sharp with Republicans praising his leadership and Democrats citing that he has not done enough and was too slow to act. These opinions are unlikely to change and reflect the deep chasm that exists in today's political climate.

More encouraging for Trump is that he and Congress have worked together to pass several pieces of relief legislation related to the Covid Crisis. In a rare show of bipartisanship these provisions were passed nearly unanimously. In addition he has resisted the more right wing segments of his party in terms of taking the crisis seriously.

Unfortunately for the president, it looks like he was persuaded by a combination of poor polling data and his medical team (shout out to Doctors Fauci and Birx) to shift course to one more aligned with the vast majority of public health official. In addition, a growing chorus on the political and religious Right is calling for a much quicker reopening of the economy and society than many in the public health community would suggest.

Given all of the drama throughout his presidency, Trump's reelection will stand or fall on the perceptions of how he has handled this crisis both in terms of the health ramifications and the economic dislocation. Trump did receive a bit of a polling bounce (known as the rally effect) but that has receded in recent days. Expect things to change rapidly as he has a knack for making contradictory statements and policy by the day,


Joe Biden

Biden, now the presumptive Democratic nominee has risen from an endangered campaign as recently as February. After very shaky performances in Iowa (which has probably lost its first in the nation status) and and New Hampshire, he smashed temporary front-runner Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, Nevada, and most Super Tuesday states. Super Tuesday forced the remaining candidates out of the race (all of whom endorsed Biden) and Biden was the last man standing in the "moderate" lane. Warren and Sanders continued to split the liberal vote for another round of primaries thus amplifying Biden's victories.

Biden benefited greatly from his strong support among Black voters, Rural voters, and voters over 50. The youth vote, touted by many experts as pivotal again failed to materialize in large enough numbers to make a difference. Biden is also seen by most Democrats as the best candidate to run against Trump. There still needs to be some fence mending with those on the party's left wing, but it is likely that he will lead a united party in November.

The major issue Biden faces right now is that he is having great difficulty in getting attention in this period of time. Trump is using the bully pulpit as a way to be on television seven days a week. In these times of Quarantine, Biden cannot hold any rallies and is forced to conduct interviews from his home and issue press statements.

There have been some calls for Biden to name his (female) VP sooner rather then later to create some buzz. There also have been calls to form a type of shadow cabinet to highlight policy differences with the president. The drawback of this is that every member of the cabinet will be scrutinized` and attacked by the GOP. That's politics.


Governors

State governors have received a lot of attention as federalism is alive and well. Governors Cuomo of New York and Newsom of California have emerged as both state and media leaders. There has been considerable tension between many governors and the Trump administration regarding federal response and coordination as well as the federal versus state role in how and when the nation "reopens". After Trump initially asserted that the president has the right to determine this the governors will be taking the lead (the proper constitutional way, see the 10th amendment) with suggested federal guidance regarding milestones should be achieved, As of this writing, there are three regional compacts (Northeast, West, and Midwest) between mostly Democratic governors on coordinating economic reopening.


What Now?

Over the next several weeks I will examine in depth the evolving political climate and run some early electoral college scenarios. There remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty ranging from how the  actual election will be conducted (in person voting vs mailing ballots) - to how damaging the pandemic will be - to the state of the economy and society by early autumn. Much is in flux and of course I reserve the right to revise my analysis as conditions change.

Stay Healthy and Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts 2018 Election Post Mortem

OK, I know this is about four weeks late, but the Prof has been busy...sounds like an excuse one of my students or kids may make.

Massachusetts yielded few if any surprises. Governor Baker and Senator Warren both convincingly won reelection. Democrats increased their super-majority in the state legislature. Politically, the state will look much the same as it did before.

All of the below graphics are courtesy of NYTimes.com

Governor

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
Charlie Baker*	Republican	1,781,982	66.8%
Jay Gonzalez	Democrat	886,281	33.2

As we can see, Baker ran up his totals all over the state with the exception of the Connecticut Valley and immediate Boston suburbs. Indeed Gonzalez only won in Boston by 1 point, an impressive showing for a Republican. Baker also won in the urban centers of Worcester, Springfield, Lowell and Fall River. Even very liberal western Mass was split about evenly.

Baker won for the following reasons:

• Although a Republican, he is a "Never Trumper" and has rather progressive social perspectives, This inoculated him from the Blue Wave that swept the GOP away in many parts of the nation and affected the GOP downticket in Massachusetts. Gonzalez tried numerous times to tie Baker to Trump, but the voters clearly were not buying it.
• Gonzalez's campaign was chronically underfunded and could not make the media buys necessary to get his message out.
• The Democratic party machinery in the legislature and in local government who play well with Baker, either were silent or quietly supported Baker.
• The state's economy is perceived to be strong. No massive cry from the citizenry for change - steady as she goes with the same team.
• Look for Baker to keep the same "go along, get along" and managerial-focused track for his second term. Should he run for another term in 2022 Baker is likely to draw a much stronger challenge from an ambitious Democrat who may wish to parley the Governor's seat into a springboard for a presidential run. Yes, I am thinking of Attorney General Healy and Reps Moulton and Kennedy. Or they will slug it out if Senator Markey retires, but I digress...

US Senate

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
Elizabeth Warren*	Democrat	1,634,213	60.4%
Geoff Diehl	Republican	979,507	36.2
Shiva Ayyadurai	Independent	91,732	3.4

Senator Warren's win over Geoff Deihl is almost the mirror opposite of Baker's win. Obviously there was a lot of ticket splitting going on last November. Deihl was only able to win in the most traditionally conservative regions of Massachusetts whilst Warren won by massive margins in liberal areas.

Warren cemented her win due to:

• Her status as the incumbent progressive Democrat in a very anti-Trump state. Deilh never had a chance based on the numbers she had on her side.
• Warren had much more money to spend on GOTV activities than the underfunded Deihl.
• Deilh hails from the socially conservative wing of the GOP and was perceived (rightly so) of being a Trump supporter.
• Warren is a star in national politics and is likely to launch a 2020 presidential bid. Her supporters had a lot vested in Warren winning a convincing reelection.

Ballot Questions

Answer	Votes	Pct.
Yes	1,807,644	67.8%
No	857,608	32.2

2,665,252 votes, 100% reporting (2,173 of 2,173 precincts)

Question 1Limit Nurse-to-Patient Ratio

Answer	Votes	Pct.
No	1,847,037	70.4%
Yes	777,180	29.6

2,624,217 votes, 99% reporting (2,172 of 2,173 precincts)

Question 2Create Citizens Commission

Answer	Votes	Pct.
Yes	1,853,886	71.4%
No	744,352	28.6

2,598,238 votes, 99% reporting (2,172 of 2,173 precincts)

No real surprises on the three ballot questions except that the "No" margin on Question 1 was more than I had anticipated. Credit that to a massive advertising campaign by the hospital and health care industry which is very influential in Massachusetts.

Other races and observations

• For the past 25 years the GOP has not been able to win a House seat in Massachusetts. With partisanship so nationalized I think in another 25 years Massachusetts will continue to send an all Democratic delegation to Washington. Even in the open 3rd District seat in the Merrimack Valley it was a 62-34 win for Lori Trahan, the Democratic candidate. No Republican candidate exceeded 41% of the vote in any congressional race.
• The Blue Wave whittled away more of the already scarce GOP presence in the state legislature. Expect this to continue as whomever runs against Trump in  2020 will rack up a massive win in Massachusetts. 

Almost time to turn our gaze to 2020 as the Invisible Primary is well underway. One thing about electoral politics  - it is never static or boring.

Onwards!

The Prof

US 2018 Senate Election Civics Lesson

In the 2018 midterm election Democrats received more total national votes than the Republicans in Senatorial contests by a margin of 47.9 million to 34.3 million. Thus the question has come up as to how the GOP is still controlling the Senate after the 2018 midterm.

Keep this in mind that we are a constitutional democratic republic and the system was set up to work in such a way to protect state rights. In a national parliamentary system the Democrats would control more legislative seats. Consider these points.

• Under our federal system states elect two Senators regardless of the state's population. Thus CA and NY will have many more potential votes than does WY or VT for each Senate election thus a big win for a particular party in large states can run up the national total.

• Second, the Democrats had many more incumbent seats in play last night and most actually won by fairly wide margins - the media was focused on a few close races. Bear in mind that Warren's win in Massachusetts gave the Democrats a margin of over 750k votes while Scott's apparent win in Florida was by less than 15k votes. This yields a a net plurality of over 700k votes for the Democratic vote total, but one senator is elected from each party. 

• Lastly, under the California open primary rules, two Democrats ran against each other netting over 7 million total Democratic votes and zero Republican senatorial votes in CA. 

Onwards!

The Prof

2018 Massachusetts Races - Final Predictions

Election Day 2018 is tomorrow, so some quick predictions and analysis of a fairly predictable race (more of a stroll in fact) here in the Bay State.

Governor

Incumbent governor Charlie Baker is leading Jay Gonzalez by a more than comfortable 43 points in the last poll. Baker has consistently outperform his underfunded and largely unknown opponent. Gonzalez is suffering from a lack of institutional party support as well as Baker plays ball well with the Democratic legislature. Baker has successfully parleyed attempts to tie him the Donald Trump - in fact he may be the most anti-Trump Republican holding major office.

Gonzalez should win (albeit by modest margins) in Boston and the major urban areas and the liberal 5 College region in the Pioneer Valley, Expect Baker to rack up large victories in the suburbs - even the left leaning Route 2 corridor west of Boston. Across the 495 belt, South Shore, Essex and Worcester County Baker wins by landslide totals. He is not going to win by 43 points, but I expect and easy double digit win for the incumbent governor.

Prediction: Baker wins 62 - 38


US Senate

Many Baker voters will split their tickets and also cast a vote for incumbent senator Elizabeth Warren. GOP candidate Geoffe Dheil who has tied himself to the national GOP will suffer due to Trump's extreme unpopularity in Massachusetts.

Prediction: Warren wins 58-42


Other Races:

• Democrats win all other state constitutional offices easily, all by greater than 20 points.

• Democrats win all contested US House races easily, all by more than 20 points. 

• Ballot questions 2 and 3 win in a landslide, Question 1 on nurse staffing ratios loses by 5 points.

• In national races, the Democrats capture the House by about 20 seats and the GOP holds the Senate and gains 1 seat.

Onwards!

The Prof

Massachusetts 2018 Primary Analysis

A few thoughts on this month's primary...

7th District Results
Wow, Mea Maxima Culpa!

The 7th District race between Michael Capuano and Ayanna Pressley that I was convinced would be won by the veteran congressman turned the political world on its head with Pressley's 59-41 win in the September 4 primary. Conventional (and Professor Brad's) wisdom was to side with the well-financed and politically savvy incumbent...but the voters of the majority-minority 7th District has other ideas. Pressley campaigned and distinguished herself on her story and background as there were few policy differences between the two candidates. This resonated with the activist base and generated very high minority turnout. Capuano barely won in his native city of Somerville and was thrashed elsewhere.

Certainly old political norms are breaking down and a new political class appears to be rising, at least in regions with high minority populations. This is happening nationwide as well with female and minority candidates being nominated in Democratic primaries in far greater numbers than in past years. A record 43% of 2018 House Democratic nominees nationwide are women.

However, Secretary of State Galvin easily disposed of his younger and more liberal challenger so it remains to be seen if this will occur statewide.

3rd District Results

In this ten person primary, it came down to a recount between the top two candidates where Lori Trahan squeezed out a 143 vote margin over Dan Koh - out of 88,00 votes cast in the primary. Winning a primary with 21% of the vote in our "first past the post" system has some calling for reform such as ranked choice voting which would have voters indicate their second choice in such a crowded primary and allocate those votes form the bottom finishing candidates to those who finished in the top echelon until one candidate gets over 50% of the vote based upon the raw vote combined with the second choice votes. Maine already has a such a system and this happening in Massachusetts may result in a greater push for it here.

Democratic Governor

No surprise, Jay Gonzalez easily defeated Bob Massie. Organization and money mattered here. Notably about 20% of Democratic ballots statewide had blank votes on the governor's race - perhaps an indication of low enthusiasm for these candidates.

Republican Governor

As expected Incumbent Charlie Baker defeated his challenger, Scott Lively. What was unusual was that Lively with no money or organization won 35% of the vote against the most popular governor in the nation. This indicates that a significant number of conservative GOP voters cast a protest against Baker's political moderation and collaborative style. In fact new polling (to be covered in my next post) shows Baker has higher favorability among Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. This will help him in the general election, but I expect many Lively voters to blank the governor's race in November.

Republican Senate

State Representative Geoff Diehl easily beat his two opponents with over 50% of the vote. He had money, name recognition, and importantly experience running campaigns unlike his opponents.

Now that the primary is over the real fireworks begin!

Onwards!

The Prof